Actual worldwide population problem

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
This thread has been locked
Messages 1 - 20 of total 54 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Original Post - Feb 11, 2019 - 11:44am PT
It's not what you think---overpopulation, which is a huge problem.

It is shrinking population, which has dramatic consequences financially, but which is generally not being planned for.

Take the situation of the linked article from WaPost, in which Hungary is so desperate, that they have eliminated taxes for mothers of 4 children. In that particular case, the dear leader has rejected immigration as an answer, option for the pure blood of Hungarians as the answer. With the world-wide plunge in reproductive rate, this is the big danger, that politicians will start to incentivize larger families, and we are off to the races, again!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/hungary-is-so-desperate-for-kids-mothers-of-four-wont-pay-income-tax/2019/02/11/04701764-2e01-11e9-ac6c-14eea99d5e24_story.html?utm_term=.90c06f832fc0


He has said his current term is dedicated to solving the country’s demographic problems and that convincing women to have more children is at the heart of that effort. He vowed shortly after last year’s victory to “reach a comprehensive agreement with Hungarian women.”

In the male-dominated world of Hungarian politics, he is doing so with little input from women themselves.

But his stalwart resistance — when combined with an exodus of young workers and low birthrates — has created a demographic nightmare. Hungary’s population is shrinking, a trend that poses long-term risks for the economy. It has also caused short-term political trouble for Orban, who has had to enact unpopular labor laws to try to wring more hours from a declining workforce.

Dubbed “the slave law” by critics, it was widely seen as an attempt to address a labor shortage that has left employers without enough workers.

Hungary’s fertility rate — 1.45 children per woman — is lower than the 1.58 average across the European Union. With large numbers of young Hungarians leaving the country in search of better wages and greater freedoms elsewhere in Europe, the population is steadily declining. Nearly 10 million today, it is projected to be just over 8 million by 2050.

A replacement rate is 2.1 The US rate is 1.7, currently at a 30-year low.

Broken out by age, the 2017 birthrate fell for teenagers by 7 percent, to 18.8 births per 1,000, a record low. That figure is for women from 15 to 19 years old. For that same group, the birthrate has fallen by 55 percent since 2007 and by 70 percent since the most recent peak in 1991, the CDC said.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/17/611898421/u-s-births-falls-to-30-year-low-sending-fertility-rate-to-a-record-low

What is the plan in YOUR community for this shrinkage?
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Feb 11, 2019 - 12:05pm PT
I'm banking on Thanos showing up at some point.

So I got that going for me.

heh
August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Feb 11, 2019 - 12:14pm PT
The benefits include a lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth and raise at least four children; a subsidy of 2.5 million forints ($8,825) toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children; and a low-interest loan of 10 million forints ($35,300) for women under age 40 who are marrying for the first time.

Orban, who has made “zero tolerance” for immigration his main theme in the past four years and was elected to a third consecutive term in April, said the initiative is meant to “ensure the survival of the Hungarian nation.”

“This is the Hungarians’ answer, not immigration,” Orban said.
sween345

climber
back east
Feb 11, 2019 - 12:48pm PT

Munge,

My money is on Bertrand Zobrist.

Whether engineered by man or naturally generated a pandemic it seems will shuffle the deck.

Have you seen the documentary Age of Consequences? https://vimeo.com/189104269

Their focus is climate change and the myriad of issues associated with it.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 11, 2019 - 12:53pm PT
Yep, and 20 years ago who would have thought China would be having a similar problem today

Even Trump has admitted that we need immigrants
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Feb 11, 2019 - 01:21pm PT
Slowly shrinking human populations are a good thing. No... make that a great thing.

Mankind is a parasite and has already far exceeded the ideal loading for any kind of symbiosis on this tiny spinning blue rock.

Constant growth is a mathematical dead end in a closed system. It's simple math too.

jeff constine

Trad climber
Ao Namao
Feb 11, 2019 - 01:47pm PT
Include people with Multiple accounts on here like Aeriq/MisterE.
Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Feb 11, 2019 - 01:58pm PT

Economics is fundamentally flawed. To have a healthy economy, you have to have continued growth. Our planet is not growing and finite resources aren’t growing. The better the “economy” does, and the more humans that inhabit this planet, the sooner we get to The Great Collapse.


Here’s another one on the subject, from a few weeks back, regarding Japan.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/can-the-us-avoid-japans-demographic-disaster/2018/12/31/1f29ba66-0d3f-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4334eca580e5

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 11, 2019 - 02:25pm PT
Isn’t it called ‘buying votes’? Who’s on first?
AP

Trad climber
Calgary
Feb 11, 2019 - 02:31pm PT
Canada realized decades ago that we need more people to keep the economy running so we have become very multicultural through immigration. People from all over but mostly Asian. I think it has been good for us, or least the restaurant/ethnic foodstore part.
Meech

Trad climber
PHX and SLC
Feb 11, 2019 - 02:34pm PT
But if one economy is growing due to immigration.. then that means another's is diminishing. So while that's great for Canada, I don't really see how that fixes any problems.
Trump

climber
Feb 11, 2019 - 02:35pm PT
With the world-wide plunge in reproductive rate, this is the big danger, that politicians will start to incentivize larger families, and we are off to the races, again!

The problem of overpopulation led to the solution of declining fertility rates which might lead to the problem of increasing fertility rates which will exacerbate the problem of overpopulation? That’s a tough one!

I think problems often find solutions which create problems which find solutions .. and somewhere along the way we just call it reality. Humans as a solution to 4 billion years of evolution are kind of a problem themselves, but I’m not done yet! Despite the problem of increasing human longevity.
Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Feb 11, 2019 - 02:47pm PT
Agree with Minerals. A fundamental change in how we live is needed. We need to live sustainably. Make do with less. The pursuit of material crap is the road to ruin.

Good example, I was listening to NPR this weekend (Wait Wait,don't Tell Me actually) and they mentioned a news story about how often you should replace your underwear, every six months. It would be ridiculous if everyone followed that rule.

https://www.nbcnews.com/better/pop-culture/here-s-how-often-you-should-replace-everything-your-bedroom-ncna844686
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2019 - 02:49pm PT
Slowly shrinking human populations are a good thing. No... make that a great thing.

Mankind is a parasite and has already far exceeded the ideal loading for any kind of symbiosis on this tiny spinning blue rock.

Constant growth is a mathematical dead end in a closed system. It's simple math too.

The problem, as I see it, is that western civilization is predicated on constant growth, either in population, or expansion. If our population shrinks, then barring some other solution being found, the logical alternative, is expansion. America is perfectly poised to become the new mongol horde.

Even broad visions of mankind, which have us having to migrate into space, because there is no space left on Earth----totally changed.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 11, 2019 - 03:20pm PT
I noticed a segment of this problem, locally, when I noticed that the number of schoolchildren enrolled in LA Unified School District, has dropped, on average, about 10,000 students/year for at least the last 10 years. 601,000 today, 708,461 a decade ago.

While declining enrollment was noted 10 years ago, no planning has addressed this.

What I find notable, is that each year, we voters are asked to approve various funding ballot measures to pay for building more and new schools.

----EVERY year


It seems like their should be a consequence for the shrinkage of 1/7th of the school population-----with no reversal of this trend in sight!
Ward Trotter

Trad climber
Feb 11, 2019 - 03:21pm PT
Decreasing birth rates in industrialized nations is not a new phenomenon-- it has been a long-standing feature of economic development and central to the outcomes of higher standards of living . Nations and cultures low on the transition curve are the places with uncontrolled population increases. With economic development generally comes a leveling off of population growth followed by an eventual downturn.

It is interesting to note as well that there are social personality types associated with the various stages of economic growth and are characteristic of that stage-- and coexisting with others during specific historical frames of reference.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 11, 2019 - 03:23pm PT
With the world-wide plunge in reproductive rate, this is the big danger, that politicians will start to incentivize larger families, and we are off to the races, again!

World-wide plunge?

When was the last year to show a drop in global population?

Maybe during WWII?

The Black Plague?

Minerals

Social climber
The Deli
Feb 11, 2019 - 03:24pm PT

...how often you should replace your underwear, every six months.

Hmmm, that sounds kind of nasty. I prefer to replace my underwear every day.
Ward Trotter

Trad climber
Feb 11, 2019 - 03:30pm PT
politicians will start to incentivize larger families, and we are off to the races, again!

Highly unlikely, but it has happened as in the case of Mexico in the period from the 1940s onward-- for which they paid dearly.

And of course the opposite happened in China with their one child policy-- for which they are paying a high price as well.

Unless this sort of thing happens organically instead of by political diktat the outcomes are usually not good.

BTW in the US I look for the fertility rate to increase a bit as the Millennials clear out of their parent's basements and start having families. Believe it or not I also think that for the same reason there will be a noticeable up-tick in religiosity, which has been generally declining in the US for decades. Not a big up-tick but the observant will notice it in the years ahead.
sween345

climber
back east
Feb 11, 2019 - 03:40pm PT

"Even Trump has admitted that we need immigrants"

Yes, but he wants EB5 immigrants

https://www.behringcompanies.com/?utm_source=homepage&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIrujmwOe04AIVxo-zCh1bbgU5EAAYASAAEgI0y_D_BwE
Messages 1 - 20 of total 54 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
 
Our Guidebooks
Check 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks


Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Recent Route Beta