"Sober as a Judge" is so "last-century" now.

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August West

Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
Oct 17, 2018 - 09:55am PT
Somebody under 60, please!

DMT

I wish the constitution had a maximum age limit. Maybe that you couldn’t start a term if you would be 65 by the end of it.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 17, 2018 - 10:02am PT
I'd like to think that our country was intelligent enough to see that Trump is a clear and present danger

We've been hearing that for two years. Yet....

The Economy is doing great.

The stock market is doing great.

Unemployment is at historic lows.

Manufacturing jobs are increasing.

The Fed has been able to consistently raise rated after keeping them near zero for eight years.

So far, we've avoided any new foreign conflicts.

I'm not saying Trump hasn't done some crappy things, like undoing a lot of Obama's accomplishments. But life for the average American seems no worse... arguably better... since Trump was elected.

of course you will not give a concrete example of how to reach out to bigots

How about trying to not be such an intolerant as#@&%e to fellow Americans, who may not embrace your views???
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Oct 17, 2018 - 10:08am PT

Add in people who are either too black and white in their thinking, or are too "gray area" in their thinking, and finding balance is nearly impossible

X2 Johnm

Its all relative to experience. With the average iq at 100 and the majority of the public watching teevee and being spoonfed garbage 24x7, there is little critical thought taking place. By design.

Orange man satanic Hitler! Vs Orange man Heroic Savior! When in reality the Orange man is but a pawn with a small role to play.

dirtbag

climber
Oct 17, 2018 - 10:45am PT
Speaking of mueller, we should hear from him shortly after the election on the russia and obstruction investigations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-17/mueller-said-ready-to-deliver-key-findings-in-his-trump-probe

But, will these reports see the light of day, or will trump fire everyone involved and stuff the Department of justice full of his cronies to hide its findings?

The weeks following November 6 could be among the bumpiest in our nation’s history. Or, it could fizzle.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 17, 2018 - 10:52am PT
We've been hearing that for two years. Yet....

The Economy is doing great.

The stock market is doing great.

Unemployment is at historic lows.

Manufacturing jobs are increasing.

Wait for it. It usually takes the Republican president a good two to three years to send the economy into recession.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-markets-expect-a-recession-every-republican-since-teddy-roosevelt-has-had-one-in-their-first-term-2018-05-02
U.S. stock-market investors should know better than to base their investments on superstitions or trivia, but there’s a curious trend that has persisted for decades that could serve as yet another reason to be cautious about markets.

Since the presidency of Theodore Roosevelt, who left office in 1909, every single Republican president has seen a recession take hold in their first term.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2016/11/20/trumps-turn-republican-presidents-rule-recessions/93976832/
History could portend a bad omen for President-elect Donald Trump: recessions are more common under Republican presidents.

Every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt in the early 1900's endured a recession in their first term, according to an analysis from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at stock research firm CFRA. Four Republican presidents suffered through two recessions while in office and Republican President Dwight Eisenhower presided over three. Meanwhile, Democrats have largely skated past the recession quicksand. Four in five Democratic presidents saw no recessions during their terms since 1945, Stovall says.

http://presidentialdata.org/
Believe it or Not!
Democratic Presidents Manage the Economy Better Than Republicans

Politifact truth-o-meter: Stock Market does better under Democratic Presidents than Republican Presidents
Nine of the last ten recessions have occurred under Republican Presidents.
Democratic presidents create nearly twice as many jobs per year as Republican Presidents.
Republican presidents' deficits are 25% larger than Democrats' and 63% higher as a percent of GDP.
GDP grows 44% faster under Democratic Presidents.
Business investment has grown twice as fast under Democratic Presidents than under Republican Presidents.
Forbes Guest Post (11/7/16): The Economy Does Better Under The Democrats

Of course, as Ronald Raygun pointed out, "Facts are stupid things."

Nibs

Trad climber
Humboldt, CA
Oct 17, 2018 - 10:57am PT
Dirt bag is correct noting the rural urban divide. This is what my friends in Trinity and Siskiyou counties talk about. For years they have felt that divide, underrepresented in Sac, and urbanites dictating the regulations rural hard working folks have to live by. Talking recently they still support Trump because they think someone finally has their back.

We listen to each other with respect. Salt of the earth they are…and they respect that maybe I have read a few more books. We give each other something to think about.

As Edward said, try not to be such intolerant as#@&%es to fellow Americans. (goes both ways Ed)
Nibs

Trad climber
Humboldt, CA
Oct 17, 2018 - 11:44am PT
I don't compromise my views, I put them in a context. and I listen.

oh, and no shouting. usually there is a lot of laughter because we are friends first.

ymmv
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Oct 17, 2018 - 11:52am PT
"The Economy is doing great.

The stock market is doing great.

Unemployment is at historic lows.

Manufacturing jobs are increasing.

The Fed has been able to consistently raise rated after keeping them near zero for eight years."


None of which are directly a result of Trump's economic policies or actions. Economic swings are on an entirely different time scale than presidential terms. Trump or Hillary, the same economic results you describe would have happened.

Reasonably politically savvy people know this is true, but the political fodder that these conditions create is what swings elections.

What is unique to a presidential term is demeanor, tone, and being a representative to the country and the world of what America is. It's pretty hard for a reasonable person to argue that Trump has brought this to a new low.
Don Paul

Social climber
Washington DC
Oct 17, 2018 - 12:03pm PT
Trump is the archetypal Ugly American and has been quite an embarrassment to our country. He hasnt done anything nearly as bad as GWB though. The war in Iraq was unforgivable, imo the worst crime in the entire world in my lifetime. Kavanaugh was chief of staff for GWB during that, also assistant to AG Alberto Gonzales, involved in new torture policy, NSA wiretapping and whatnot. I'm not sure Trump is worse than Obama on those issues.

Kavanaugh himself is a soulless worm, regardless of whether he's liberal or conservative. I endorsed Neil Gorsuch and think he's been a great judge. (Im also a member of both DC and 10th circuits)
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Oct 17, 2018 - 12:13pm PT
Well, it's a fine hair to split, but GWB struck me as much more of a puppet to the neocons & establishment GOP...Cheney & co. were the true 'minds' behind all that madness. GWB played more of a role as the face of the whole administration.

Trump, on the other hand...it's pretty much all Trump. The 'leadership' is pretty much his own, and if it's not, he takes credit for it. GWB was nowhere near as ugly and brash as Trump.
divad

Trad climber
wmass
Oct 17, 2018 - 12:29pm PT
What's the difference between the Central Park Five and the Saudis?

The Central Park Five didn't rent from trump.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 17, 2018 - 01:08pm PT
OR commit murder.


Sheesh! "rogue killers"?? Really?
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 17, 2018 - 01:16pm PT
Good to point that out
10b4me

Social climber
Lida Junction
Oct 17, 2018 - 02:07pm PT
If trump is re-elected, I can see him pushing for an amendment to the Constitution that would allow him a third, and possibly fourth term.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 17, 2018 - 02:31pm PT
2/3 requirement

Unlikely

But trump could try
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 17, 2018 - 04:10pm PT
Trump's big tax cuts for corporations & the rich are going to hurt all of us. Thanks Republicans!

From the N.Y. Times.

The Treasury Department released figures on Monday showing the federal budget deficit widened by 17 percent in the 2018 fiscal year, to $779 billion. That’s an unusual jump for a year in which unemployment hit a five-decade low and the economy experienced a significant economic expansion. But the increase demonstrates that the tax cuts President Trump signed into law late last year have reduced federal revenues considerably, even against the backdrop of a booming economy.

Some conservatives don’t see the rising deficit numbers that way. They note that the Treasury reported that federal revenues rose by 0.4 percent from the 2017 fiscal year to the 2018 fiscal year, and view that as a sign that the tax cuts are “paying for themselves,” as Republicans and Mr. Trump promised.

That’s not the case.

There are several ways to ask the question, “Are tax cuts paying for themselves?” Based on the data we have right now, they all arrive at the same answer: “No.”

Federal revenues are falling well short of projections — even with strong economic growt.

The issue here is not whether the government spends too much money, or whether tax cuts have buttressed economic growth, or even whether it’s advisable to run such high deficits in flush economic times.

The issue instead is: Have the corporate and individual tax cuts that went into effect in January generated so much additional growth that tax revenues are as high, or higher, today than they would have been if the tax cuts never passed? That’s how all scorekeepers — be they independent congressional staff members or researchers from think tanks that lean liberal or conservative — assess the “pay for themselves” question.

By the Treasury’s numbers, total revenues grew 0.4 percent from the 2017 fiscal year to the 2018 fiscal year. That’s weak, historically speaking, for an economy growing as fast as it is; in the 2015 fiscal year, when growth was comparable to what it is today, revenues grew 7.5 percent from the previous year.

The weak growth brought revenue as a share of gross domestic product down, something that typically happens in — or around — a recession, not deep into a robust expansion that the Fed has described as a “particularly bright” moment.

But revenue is definitely growing after the tax cuts, right?
Well, no.

The fiscal year runs from the start of October to the end of September. The tax cuts mostly took effect in January 2018. That means three months of the 2018 fiscal year included a period without the tax cuts in place. If you look only at the nine months after the cuts took effect, you’ll see that revenue is ever so slightly down, year over year: From January through September 2017, revenues were $2.57 trillion. For the same period in 2018, they were $2.56 trillion. Which is to say, they’re down by $10 billion, in a direct comparison after the tax cuts started. Personal tax receipts are up on their own, but corporate tax receipts are down by about a third from a year ago.

That overall drop looks worse when you consider inflation. A dollar today buys about 2 percent less than it did a year ago, according to the inflation index used by the Federal Reserve to set monetary policy. So the government brought in slightly less money year over year, and that money was worth less than the equivalent amount a year ago, which means it buys fewer meals for troops, materials for highway construction or any of the other goods and services that tax dollars go toward.
This is exactly what most forecasters predicted.

When the tax law passed, members of Congress had all sorts of evidence suggesting it would accelerate America’s growing budget deficits. The Joint Committee on Taxation and the Tax Policy Center predicted that the new law would add at least $1 trillion to deficits over the next 10 years, even after accounting for additional economic growth. The Penn Wharton Budget Model predicted it would add $2 trillion. The most optimistic mainstream model that analyzed all the provisions of the new law, from the Tax Foundation, predicted it would add about $450 billion to the deficit after accounting for additional growth.

Republicans dismissed those warnings. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he expected the new law to more than pay for itself — it would help to reduce future deficits. It’s possible that optimism could turn out to be right, but only if the tax cuts unleash a sustained boom in productivity and economic growth, and with them, much higher revenues than we saw this past fiscal year.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/no-trumps-tax-cut-isnt-paying-for-itself-at-least-not-yet/ar-BBOv9gi
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Oct 17, 2018 - 04:17pm PT
“Rogue killers”.

These are the kind of people the POTUS does business with,you know , good people.

Gary , I hope you are wrong, I believe the Right does not care about recessions ,they know they will be alright,maybe profit from it.

They will be bailed out,the working man ,not so much.
Contractor

Boulder climber
CA
Oct 17, 2018 - 04:32pm PT
Heil Trump and the Proud boyz...it's about to get ugly out there. I cringe every time I see a dude with a Nazi Wehrmacht haircut, tightly manicured beard and a couple of sleeves of arm tats. Sorry in advance if you are unwittingly sporting this look.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Oct 17, 2018 - 05:23pm PT
Nope. Now he has to listen to tapes of the murder.

I wonder if he'll call it locker room talk.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Oct 17, 2018 - 06:01pm PT
Beheading =locker room talk.

Role model ,he is.

Just how many business cohorts is he beholden to ,that we have still to learn from his tax record,really.
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