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divad
Trad climber
wmass
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Topic Author's Original Post - Sep 13, 2017 - 02:27pm PT
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1. Trump
2. Kim Jong-Un
3. Asteroids
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Ksolem
Trad climber
Monrovia, California
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Sep 13, 2017 - 02:53pm PT
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I don't think a Korean War would end all life on earth, even if it involved nukes (not that I want to see it happen.) I just looked up the stats for our South Pacific nuke tests. I am stunned to see that between 1948 and 1962 we set off 102 nuke tests. If that didn't do it, one more in Seattle and a couple of ours in NK won't make much difference.
This lists three sets of tests, from wiki:
Operation Redwing (1956)[edit]
Main article: Operation Redwing
Seventeen nuclear weapons were detonated on the Bikini and Enewetak Atolls as part of Operation Redwing in 1956. Many of them were designed to prove the feasibility of numerous thermonuclear weapon designs, with yields ranging from around 2 to 5 Mt.
Operation Hardtack I (1958)[edit]
Main article: Operation Hardtack I
Thirty-five weapons were detonated at the Bikini Atoll, Enewetak Atoll, and Johnston Island as part of Operation Hardtack I in 1958.
Operation Dominic (1962)[edit]
Main article: Operation Dominic I and II
Thirty-six weapons were detonated at sites in the Pacific Ocean in the vicinity of Christmas Island and Johnston Atoll as part of Operation Dominic I. Though these tests were not conducted in the Marshall Islands, they are officially considered part of the Pacific Proving Grounds.[13] The portion of the Dominic series of tests that were high altitude nuclear explosions were known as Operation Fishbowl, though not all were successful (one detonated on launchpad and resulted in a substantial plutonium contamination).[14] Two of the tests were of operational weapons systems—the ASROC anti-submarine rocket and the Polaris SLBM (the latter test, Frigate Bird, was the only operational submarine-launched ballistic missile test with a live warhead ever undertaken by the USA).
Now that asteroid thing is another story. Didn't I read that a big one passed between us and the moons' orbit recently?
edit: This looks pretty epic too:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/massive-sunspots-solar-flares-sun-111955127.html
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divad
Trad climber
wmass
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 13, 2017 - 03:05pm PT
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Seems improbable that a nuclear war involving North Korea would be limited to just the US and N Korea.
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tradmanclimbs
Ice climber
Pomfert VT
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Sep 13, 2017 - 03:11pm PT
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If we nuke N. Korea 99% chance that china and Russia get in on the game...
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micronut
Trad climber
Fresno/Clovis, ca
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Sep 13, 2017 - 03:13pm PT
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The Supertopo server going down for more than 72 hours.......
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divad
Trad climber
wmass
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 13, 2017 - 03:17pm PT
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^^^ that would end life for only a select few here...
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Rock!...oopsie.
Trad climber
the pitch above you
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Sep 13, 2017 - 03:53pm PT
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To paraphrase Trump, ...sorta:
When the supertopo server goes down, we're not losing our best and our brightest. We're losing washed up has beens, we're losing desk bound lunatic morons, and I assume that we'll be losing some good people.
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 13, 2017 - 03:59pm PT
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Speaking of asteroids...
The asteroid that impacted the Yucatan peninsula around the Cretaceous - Tertiary boundary (~ 60 million years ago) and produced a worldwide Iridium anomaly didn't end life on the planet. In fact, it altered the planet's atmosphere and global climate sufficiently to allow Primates to evolve and eventually flourish. Depending on your perspective, this could be considered a disastrous development that now threatens all life on the planet.
Speaking of nukes...you really should add Tsar Bomba to that list...
The Tsar Bomba is the single most physically powerful device ever deployed by mankind.[27] For comparison, the largest weapon ever produced by the U.S., the now-decommissioned B41, had a predicted maximum yield of 25 megatons of TNT (100 PJ). The largest nuclear device ever tested by the U.S. (Castle Bravo) yielded 15 megatons of TNT (63 PJ) because of an unexpectedly high involvement of lithium-7 in the fusion reaction; the preliminary prediction for the yield was from 4 to 6 megatons of TNT (17 to 25 PJ). The largest weapons deployed by the Soviet Union were also around 25 megatons of TNT (100 PJ) (e.g., the SS-18 Mod. 3 warhead).[citation needed]
The weight and size of the Tsar Bomba limited the range and speed of the specially modified bomber carrying it and ruled out its delivery by an intercontinental ballistic missile. Much of its high-yield destructiveness was inefficiently radiated upwards into space. It has been estimated that detonating the original 100 Mt design would have released fallout amounting to about 26% of all fallout emitted since the invention of nuclear weapons.[28] It was decided that a full 100 Mt detonation would create too great a risk of nuclear fallout, as well as a near certainty that the release plane (and crew) would be destroyed before it could escape the blast radius.[29]
The Tsar Bomba was the culmination of a series of high-yield thermonuclear weapons designed by the Soviet Union and the United States during the 1950s (e.g., the Mark 17[30] and B41 nuclear bombs).
Speaking of Trump
'nuff said ;-)
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WBraun
climber
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Sep 13, 2017 - 04:03pm PT
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The single most dangerous threat to life is your own selves.
Because you people are insane .....
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Reeotch
climber
4 Corners Area
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Sep 13, 2017 - 05:06pm PT
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I just looked up the stats for our South Pacific nuke tests. I am stunned to see that between 1948 and 1962 we set off 102 nuke tests. If that didn't do it, one more in Seattle and a couple of ours in NK won't make much difference.
What the hell is wrong with us.
My Dad (RIP) was a regular at the Nevada Test Site. WTF?????!!!!!
Insanity . . .
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Contractor
Boulder climber
CA
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Sep 13, 2017 - 05:38pm PT
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The Werner paradox: The more stoopid, insane and greedy homosapiens act, the sooner our planet will become depleted and toxic for human life, the more urgency there is to infest other planets which will result in the proliferation of interstellar stoopid Americans, all their client species and the random parasites and germs that may accompany.
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10b4me
Mountain climber
Retired
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Sep 13, 2017 - 05:50pm PT
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When the supertopo server goes down, we're not losing our best and our brightest. We're losing washed up has beens, we're losing desk bound lunatic morons, and I assume that we'll be losing some good people.
:-)
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Ain't no flatlander
climber
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Sep 13, 2017 - 05:55pm PT
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Limited nuclear war on the Korean peninsula is quite possible, maybe even desirable. It won't escalate because neither China nor Russia care enough about NK to threaten their own regimes.
So we lose 20-30 million in a small conflict; at least it's over pretty quick. Still better than the 100-200 million that will die of starvation in the US if NK detonates just one EMP about 200 miles above Kansas, plus the worldwide economic meltdown--no need to take out cities.
On the bright side, a limited nuclear war can put just enough material in the atmosphere to stop global warming without causing a 100-year winter. Multiple problems solved!
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Yury
Mountain climber
T.O.
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Sep 13, 2017 - 06:03pm PT
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tradmanclimbs:
If we nuke N. Korea 99% chance that China and Russia get in on the game... tradmanclimbs, you need to limit your consumption of US States Department propaganda (as disseminated by MSM).
Russia has no stake in this conflict and would not intervene.
China would not intervene as well in case US limit their "peacekeeping operation" to air strikes (including nuclear) without deployment of their ground troops.
China would respond only in case of ground attack by US or South Korean troops (to prevent deployment of US troops in North Korea).
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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Sep 13, 2017 - 06:11pm PT
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Caucasians feeling of entitlement.
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c wilmot
climber
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Sep 13, 2017 - 06:20pm PT
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China and Russia would most certainly object to a US military presence across the Yalu and tumen rivers...
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Fossil climber
Trad climber
Atlin, B. C.
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Sep 13, 2017 - 07:45pm PT
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Three things?
1. People.
2. People.
3. People.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Sep 13, 2017 - 07:58pm PT
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This was the topic, in an off-handed way, of a grad school seminar in the seventies.
Brief summary . Even a big nuclear war does not necessarily imply the end of (human) life on Earth
Fictionalized accountby Streiber & Kunetka Warday
YMMV
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Sep 13, 2017 - 08:16pm PT
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Trying to draw to an inside straight, so to speak.
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nah000
climber
now/here
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Sep 13, 2017 - 08:18pm PT
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three things that pose a threat to all life on earth [according to zee scientists and le goog]:
1. the sun losing enough mass in a few billion or so years that the earth moves into a larger orbit causing it to freeze
2. the sun while moving through its death cycle expands into a red giant large enough that the earth is effectively vaporized, possibly in as quickly as half a billion years
3. the sun burns out and again the earth freezes in a little under ten billion years.
but, the real question is not life but as we homo sapiens like to see it [our] Life. imo, three big threats to at least a good chunk of that Life [as it were] are:
1. we are not able to reform collective organizational systems grounded in required expansion to reflect a new age of necessary steady state and the mother earth rids herself of our collective expansionistic bacterial presence via an effective global parallel to a feverish human flu. [ex. global warming, resource depletion, etc]
2. we are not able to create and/or sustain spaces in the map [as it were] for individuated, small and large scale collective [relative] independence/experimentation/dissent in an age of increasing pressure from collective territorial [whether physical, intellectual, spiritual] control and the pressurized elements literally explode [ex. the current manifestation of the n korean spirit [kju], the current manifestation of the us of american spirit [djt], or one of the other collective terroristic spirits raising their heads around the world, etc.]
3. the theoretical, but currently only hypothetical, wild cards of the rise of other non-benevolent "intelligence": possibilities include loss of control of our own creations [ex. "self-learning" and evolutionary a.i., etc] or via visitation from other realms...
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AP
Trad climber
Calgary
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Sep 13, 2017 - 08:27pm PT
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Another Carrington type solar flare is more likely than a meteor hitting the Earth.
This could destroy many of electrical systems hence our way of life
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Sep 13, 2017 - 08:30pm PT
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Anti-biotic resistant bacteria seem more threatening to life on Earth for nerds
Royale - Flush
Ultimately, the big fear is that the newly discovered mcr-1 gene will end up being picked up by other multi-drug-resistant bacteria--particularly a kind known as Carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae, or CRE. These microbes are resistant to a class of drugs called carbapenems, which are reserved to treat certain resistant infections. Infections with CRE are “becoming more and more common,” says Lance Price, a microbiologist who directs the Antibiotic Resistance Action Center at George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health—and right now, colistin is among the only drugs that can cure them. If CRE end up intermingling with bacteria containing the mcr-1 gene inside a person or animal’s gut, or even on a piece of meat—and this could already be happening unbeknownst to anyone—the world could suddenly be faced with pan-drug-resistant bacteria. “Then it’s a royal flush—the infection has an unbeatable hand,” Price says. “It’s untreatable."
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August West
Trad climber
Where the wind blows strange
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Sep 13, 2017 - 09:32pm PT
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A solar storm could possibly end civilization as we know it is far more likely than an asteroid of sufficient size.
I'm actually more worried about Pakistan than NK. I think a nuclear war between Pakistan and India is more likely than one on the Korean peninsula.
Besides the direct fallout, if you thought the 2008 financial crisis was bad, imagine when the entire world is trying to divest from India and everything related at the same time.
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WBraun
climber
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Sep 13, 2017 - 09:37pm PT
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No life is gonna end.
This why you people are insane.
You actually believe all this horsesh!t you're fed by your insane media ........
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madbolter1
Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
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Sep 14, 2017 - 03:25am PT
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Entropy.
That's only one thing, but it's the ultimate thing.
Everything else is just gamesmanship until then.
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Jaybro
Social climber
Wolf City, Wyoming
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Sep 14, 2017 - 04:32am PT
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Earth abides, and so does life upon it. The existence of the human race however is getting to be a dicier and dicier prospect
The earth has weathered major extinctions before as it will again. Not great if you are olf the group going extinct, but a culling and re positioning for life as a whole.
Until the scenarios tha nahoo and madbolter take place, as they inevitably will, given enough time.
The cycle goes on.
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Mike Honcho
Trad climber
Glenwood Springs, CO
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Sep 14, 2017 - 05:16am PT
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Werner is slaying TOUGH on this thread!! So glad I just gulped the coffee in my mouth before I read the second comment, I would have blown that sh#t everywhere!
Caylor
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Nick Danger
Ice climber
Arvada, CO
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Sep 14, 2017 - 06:35am PT
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I take the long view. Earliest appearance of live current placed by some researchers at 3.8 B.Y. Even as humans have changed earth's atmosphere, so did cyanobacteria, leading to the "oxygen catastrophe", which really set the stage for organisms with a more vigorous metabolism to evolve. The cryogenic period did not end life when snowball earth was 80% to 95% covered in ice, so nothing we are going to do can be more environmentally catastrophic than that. And then there are the five major and numerous lesser mass extinction events, some caused by external forces (bolide impacts) and internal forces (giant igneous province eruptions). Earth is a pretty dynamic planet, but life has proven to be incredibly persistent.
Moving on to our own human existence, our earlier selves made it through the last glacial maximum, then thrived and expanded our range through the transition from glacial to interglacial conditions. Many other species were not able to pull that little trick off. Our pumping CO2 into the atmosphere is not even going to lead to unprecedented rates of change vis-ŕ-vis the climate, since Dansgaard-Oeschger events changed mean annual temperatures in the northern hemisphere by as much as 8 degrees C in 4 decades - well beyond even the worst potential outcomes from current anthropogenic climate change models. And humans lived through that, since 25 of those changes occurred during the last glacial cycle. Human beings as a species are going to be able to ride the coming climate changes out. It's the changes we have wrought to the microbial world that truly pose the greatest threat to our species' longevity (see zBrown's thoughtful post).
All this being said, we DO live in interesting times. We are bearing witness to a mass extinction event even as we speak, as well as a marine transgression. These things are real and happening. however, our collective attention span is not well equipped to appreciate the incrementalism of these changes. That being said, our coastal communities are definitely going to be aware of these changes going forward for the rest of this century. Hang on folks, it's going to be an interesting ride (don't forget to hug your kids and tell your parents you love them).
cheers
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Loose Rocks
Trad climber
Santa Rosa, CA
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Sep 14, 2017 - 07:45am PT
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Life on earth will be just fine after the humans are gone. Probably less than a 1000 years (I'm an optimist). At least until the sun starts in to the red giant phase.
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Sep 14, 2017 - 07:49am PT
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Ego
Materialism
LARGE carbon footprint
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WBraun
climber
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Sep 14, 2017 - 09:05am PT
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The st00pid ignorant gross materialists think they are in control of this planet.
They are not and never ever have been.
You do not own this planet and you do NOT have the power to do what you want nor you DO have the power to destroy it.
You ARE clowns that believe your own bullsh!t when you say st00pid sh!t like this earth will be fine with all humans gone.
You fool masquerading gross materialistic clowns playing God are nothing but insignificant little arrogant cockroaches playing with sh!t you ultimately know nothing about ......
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Sep 14, 2017 - 09:35am PT
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Where on Earth?
This morning, North Korea threatened to use a nuclear weapon against Japan and turn the U.S. into “ashes and darkness” for passing fresh UN sanctions earlier this week - fiery rhetoric that is likely to exacerbate tensions in North Asia. “Japan is no longer needed to exist near us,” the state-run Korean Central News Agency said on Thursday, citing a statement by the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee. “The four islands of the archipelago should be sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche,” it said, a reference to the regime’s ideology of self-reliance.
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clifff
Mountain climber
golden, rollin hills of California
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Sep 14, 2017 - 09:56am PT
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Noam Chomsky and Amy Goodman "Requiem For The American Dream" (2017)
[Click to View YouTube Video]
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Sep 14, 2017 - 10:08am PT
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note that the only nuke test in the 48 states, was in Nevada.. no one noticed.
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c wilmot
climber
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Sep 14, 2017 - 10:11am PT
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Actually the first nuclear test occurred in New Mexico
The more you know..
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Sep 14, 2017 - 10:16am PT
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yes right you are, and i was incorrect, but not the first time, thanks!
but there was a test in Nevada, also.
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Loose Rocks
Trad climber
Santa Rosa, CA
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Sep 14, 2017 - 10:51am PT
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I totally agree with you on human’s inability to destroy the planet and certainly my own inability as a single member of that group. It will still be here after I am gone. I’ll leave its destruction to the sun.
I don’t agree with you that saying that the planet will be fine after humans are gone is all that “st00pid”. We will certainly be gone at some point in time as many of the species that came before us. Any thoughts that we’re here to stay in this universe indefinitely are acts pure arrogance. But unlike the other species we actively participate in our own demise. We stand under the arch and chip at the mortar that holds the keystones. In our st00pidity we’re likely to be the cause of a large extinction event that will be our own downfall. However life on earth will not end with us. The life on this planet will survive the rise and fall of humans. It will survive this extinction event that we’re on the precipice of causing. The fossil records (if you believe in such things) show that tree of life has been pruned before and has recovered. I am optimistic that it will recover again after we do what we do even if we’re not here to see it.
To enrich my life’s experience I just drove nearly two thousand miles on a ten day road trip to see the moon obscure the sun for a hand full of seconds. I will drive hundreds of miles many times a year to go do an activity that benefits nobody but me. I am participating in this activity where I buy and discard materials that will likely contribute to the above. Members of my community will fly to the ends of the earth to do this business. They will come here with tales of adventure and I will cheer them on and ask them to do more. We are all involved in a petroleum enabled activity and we all do it with glee. In our own little way we all will contribute to this end. Not knowing (who’s to know) but thinking all of these thoughts, I am still here chipping away under the arch with the rest of the cockroaches. Am I a “fool masquerading gross materialistic clown”? Of course I am. Am I “insignificant”? That is for sure a certainty. In the scale of time that I’m incapable of understanding I think that we all are. I believe acceptance is the last stage.
By the way the cockroaches will likely survive us. Maybe Dodo birds or some other species that we’ve already killed would be a better descriptor.
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Nick Danger
Ice climber
Arvada, CO
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Sep 14, 2017 - 11:40am PT
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Ed,
There were something like 89 underground nuclear tests in Yucca Flat, something like 48 in Frenchman Flat, and 28 or so beneath Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mesa, all on the Nevada Test Site. The folks in Las Vegas definitely noticed, as cracked foundations and other damage from ground movement encouraged the AEC to find another place for large yield tests. This led to one test at the Central Nevada Test Area near Warm Springs Nevada. That test actually triggered additional earthquakes not directly associated with the test (it pushed local tectonic shear stresses associated with the Walker Lane into a critical failure mode), plus created a local graben with as much as 4 meters of vertical displacement at the time of the test (ironically called the "Faultless Test"). Another test occurred in the Sand Springs Range 30 miles east of Fallon, NV. Two underground tests took place in New Mexico, two more in Colorado, two in Mississippi, and a couple of real duzies at Amchatka Island in the Aleutians (videos of those tests show some truly impressive ground motion, including launching a local lake about 30 feet into the air). These were all underground tests. Both Frenchman Flat and Yucca Flat hosted numerous atmospheric tests before the nuclear testing regime moved underground.
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aspendougy
Trad climber
Los Angeles, CA
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Sep 14, 2017 - 11:52am PT
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Do a GOOGLE search on "The Downwinders" and you will find information on the Nevada Nuclear tests and those who were downwind. One lady said that so many in her HS graduation class were dying in their late 50's and early sixties. These huge clouds of radioactive dust used to envelope her High School.
John Wayne did a movie out there when there were some tests and a huge number of the actors and crew died of cancer.
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 14, 2017 - 11:58am PT
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Believe it or not, some of the nuke tests were for peaceful reasons...
Peaceful Nuclear Explosions(Updated July 2010)
The USA and Russia have investigated and trialled the use of nuclear explosions for civil engineering purposes, though only one significant construction resulted: a dam in Kazakhstan.
Russia has used nuclear explosions to extinguish major gas well fires.
Some 150 experiments spanned 1957-75 in the USA and 1965-89 in the USSR.
PNEs will be banned under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty when it enters into force.
Following the military use of nuclear weapons in August 1945, attention turned to harnessing nuclear power in a more controlled manner for electricity generation. However, at the same time there was considerable investigation and testing of peaceful nuclear explosions (PNE) by both the USA and USSR.From the outset it was realized that thermonuclear blasts (as distinct from fission) would have the least potential for radioactive fallout. However, along with early weapons tests, some PNE tests did contribute to atmospheric radioactivity, and some test sites now pose a radiological hazard.Applications of PNEsPossible applications for peaceful nuclear explosions include:
Large-scale excavation to create reservoirs, canals and ports.
Stimulating oil and gas recovery.
Creating cavities for underground oil, gas or waste storage.
Extinguishing gas field fires.
Space propulsion.
Interception of potentially dangerous Near Earth Objects (asteroids, etc).
Recovering oil from oil shale.
Energy production via molten fluorides underground producing steam for electricity.
Breaking up copper and phosphate ore preparatory to mining.
Of these, the first four have been tested (and even applied in some cases by the USSR) while the remaining five have been investigated but not tested.A total of 151 PNE experiments have been carried out by both the USA (27) and the USSR (124 plus 32 tests that helped develop explosive devices used in PNEs). No other country has ever carried out a PNE testa and there are currently no moves towards a resumption of tests.
http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/non-power-nuclear-applications/industry/peaceful-nuclear-explosions.aspx
If you're interested in the history of nuke testing from Trinity to China's 1st nuke test in 1964, I highly recommend the documentary film "Trinity and Beyond"
Here are a few excerpts from the film...
[Click to View YouTube Video]
[Click to View YouTube Video]
China's 1st nuke test
[Click to View YouTube Video]
FYI, seismic records of N Korea's 6 nuke tests from the same seismic station in Norway...
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matty
Trad climber
under the sea
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Sep 14, 2017 - 12:16pm PT
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^^^
Trinity and beyond is an amazing documentary. Highly recommended.
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Nick Danger
Ice climber
Arvada, CO
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Sep 14, 2017 - 12:50pm PT
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TT,
The two tests in Colorado and one in New Mexico were part of the Plowshares Program (peaceful uses of nuclear explosions). The idea was to use nuclear explosions to fracture tight gas formations. It worked but the produced gas was too radioactive to sell to the public. The second test in New Mexico was to try to use the resulting melted salt as a heat sink for later use in producing electricity (that test was in some of the large salt formations in southern N.M.). The Project Shoal test in the Sand Springs Range in NV was to characterize the seismic signal from a test placed in granite, as a way to refine our test detection protocols for monitoring underground tests in the USSR and China. The two tests in Mississippi were placed in salt diapirs for test verification purposes as well. The idea was to make a test cavern with the first test, then suspend the "device" from a cable within that first cavity and see if the seismic signal from the second test was attenuated. It was. We had been suspecting the Russians of doing just this very thing to mask the yield of some of their tests. Finally, the Sedan test in Yucca Flat was used to test nuclear explosions for earth moving and construction purposes, like building a second canal across Central America. They decided this was not a good idea when massive amounts of radioactive fallout occurred surrounding the resulting "excavation". The Sedan crater remains both the largest crater on the Nevada Test Site as well as the hottest. I was actually stunned to find journal articles in rather obscure scientific journals that discussed the use of nuclear explosions for mining purposes, and for civil engineering purposes, although these articles predated the actual tests that would disprove the concept. Imagine nuclear fracking for tight gas and then being surprised that the resulting gas was radioactive.
About those poor folks down wind in the St George Utah area; they actually timed the atmospheric tests to coincide with winds blowing the fallout in any direction away from Las Vegas. The AEC, and later the NRC never owed up to their responsibilities to those residents in Utah. One has to believe that actions like this are one of the root causes of various militia movements that simply do not trust the Federal government.
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divad
Trad climber
wmass
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 14, 2017 - 01:14pm PT
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Werner is slaying TOUGH on this thread!!
Actually the real purpose of this thread is to see how many times Werner says "stoopid".
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 14, 2017 - 01:30pm PT
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Nick Danger: very interesting. Thanks for that info. I didn't know about the salt diapir cavity tests in Mississippi.
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Don Lauria
Trad climber
Bishop, CA
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Sep 14, 2017 - 02:17pm PT
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FYI:
There are millions of asteroids in orbits around the sun. An estimated 14,000 are classified as Near Earth Objects (NEOs) by the criterion that their orbits bring them within 1.3 astronomical units (AUs) of the sun.
Considering the frequency with which meteors encounter Earth’s atmosphere (about 20 reported so far this year, and well over 700 since 1988), all populations of the world need to be concerned about any NEO larger than 100 meters in diameter becoming a catastrophic collision or atmospheric explosion. One particular NEO is an asteroid named Égaré (French for 'stray'). Égaré is indeed 100 meters in diameter and its impact could destroy a city the size of Paris. Depending on its impact location, it could cause massive tsunamis, multiple firestorms and an impact winter created by the sunlight-blocking effect of placing large quantities of pulverized rock dust, and other debris, into the stratosphere. Telescopic observations made before the summer of 2018 and the mathematics of orbital mechanics predict its possible collision with Earth at an orbital intersection on Thursday July 21, 2022. So it seems an effort to delay or prevent its arrival -- however challenging -- would be worth the effort. Right?
Every few years we read about an astronomical near miss, usually after the fact And the reports always mention that not all the asteroids have yet been identified. So a sneaky pop-up asteroid intersecting Earth’s orbit with little warning when Earth happens to be at the intersection point has an estimated probability that is not reassuring. While the chances of a major collision are not great in the near term, there is a high probability that one will happen eventually unless defensive actions are taken. Long term identification and deflection is not 100% effective, so are there other countermeasures?
A number of methods by which near-Earth objects (NEO) destructive impacts could be diverted have been studied. Probably the most studied is the use of a nuclear explosion to change an asteroid's velocity. A change of 10 meters/second (plus or minus 20%) would be adequate to push it out of an Earth-impacting orbit.
A nuclear explosion that changes an asteroid's velocity by 10 meters/second (plus or minus 20%) would be adequate to push it out of an Earth-impacting orbit. Nuclear explosive devices, kinetic impact by high mass objects, asteroid gravity tractors, ion beams, focused solar energy, mass drivers, rocket engines, and laser ablation are a few of many proposed means of avoiding a collision.
An impact occurs when both reach the same point in space at the same time, or more correctly when some point on Earth's surface intersects the impactor's orbit when the impactor arrives. Since the Earth is approximately 12,750 km in diameter and moves at approx. 30 km per second in its orbit, it travels a distance of one planetary diameter in about 425 seconds, or slightly over seven minutes. Delaying, or advancing the impactor's arrival by times of this magnitude can, depending on the exact geometry of the impact, cause it to miss the Earth.
Orbital inclination measures the tilt of an object's orbit around a celestial body. It is expressed as the angle between a reference plane and the orbital plane of the orbiting object.
For a satellite orbiting the Earth directly above the equator, the plane of the satellite's (co-planar) orbit is the same as the Earth's (reference plane) equatorial plane, and the satellite's orbital inclination is 0°. The general case is that the satellite's orbit is tilted (non-co-planar); it spends half an orbit over the northern hemisphere and half over the southern. If the orbit swung between 20° north latitude and 20° south latitude, then its orbital inclination would be 20°.
So … any non-co-planar asteroid orbit with non-zero orbital inclination has a very limited possibility of colliding with Earth. In fact, it must satisfy the following condition: Its latus rectum (“it” being an ellipse) must equal the diameter of the Earth’s orbit (assumed circular). This is according to deductions made by my old college buddy from UCLA, Paul Niquette, who now resides in a small French village and spends all his time pondering this stuff. He is currently writing a paper for submittal to NASA and ESA suggesting an alternative method of NEO impact avoidance.
There, now don’t you feel better?
References: Wikipedia.org, niquette.com
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StahlBro
Trad climber
San Diego, CA
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Sep 14, 2017 - 02:53pm PT
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The human race is on a trajectory to destroy life on this planet long before the next extraterrestrial impact.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Sep 14, 2017 - 07:22pm PT
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But was the first test in May or July?
Jornada del Muerto
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rbord
Boulder climber
atlanta
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Sep 14, 2017 - 10:44pm PT
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Actually the real purpose of this thread is to see how many times Werner says "stoopid"
Please, no more stoopid, I'm running out of beer!
The end (of the beer) is near. Look busy.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Sep 14, 2017 - 11:35pm PT
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back to the three
2) Kim Jong un is a threat, but according to Bill Clinton a few years ago, the threat was removed.
1) Barrack Hussein Obama however ignored steady progression in test frequency and capability, zip, zero, no action with China, no UN Security Council unanimous vote like Trump did get passed with China backing the action.
but wait threat 3, not asteroids, Iran got a couple billion, to sponsor more nukes, from guess who?
The guy you should really give credit for the threat, because he funded it, Barrack Hussein Obama. As much of an objectionable jerk as Trump is, i do not recall him giving money to those who seek to kill us.
Obama, did exactly that.
Two out of three, are the legacy of Barrack Hussein Obama.
So when a nuke goes off in Japan, or Iran, do not blame Trump, give credit where it is due.
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crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
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Sep 14, 2017 - 11:38pm PT
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Wow, Barack Obama's middle name was Hussein. Thanks for pointing that out, Ed. It made your argument all the more compelling. And revealing.
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EdBannister
Mountain climber
13,000 feet
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Sep 14, 2017 - 11:49pm PT
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Crankster, you .. oh wait, you edited,
to a less caustic jab, but you said nothing about the issue.
but still...
It is his name.
And he very clearly is an anti Semite.
Bibi Netanyahu repeatedly asked for a meeting with Obama, as a head of State of a friendly nation,
the President of the United States is obligated to meet with him. Obama refused. repeatedly through diplomatic channels.
Netanyahu then came to Washington DC while Obama was in town, to situationally obligate him to meet. A request for a meeting was sent, Obama refused, saying his schedule was booked, no time to meet. two days later Obama went golfing for 5 hours.
Netanyahu went home, and began arrangements for an address of a joint session of congress and the senate. When the address was given, it was right on,
and the white house reaction was he should have met with the President.
Meanwhile, because Obama let the North Korean program go unchecked for 8 years, we are at the brink of war, in the last 20 hours they flew another ICBM over Japan. no mater which way our fingers are pointing, we are on the brink of mayhem not seen since Nagasaki.
Kim is nuts, and no outcome foreseeable now is anything but ugly... it is real and sobering. because Kim could launch and land a nike, Hilo? LA? what the US govt has not told you, is Alaska, where the Anti ICBM rockets are, only has 20 units. so if you fire three to be sure to get the first one, how many more ICBMs?? or he could just drive one over to Seoul.. there are thousands of options... and the whole stew is getting worse.
so i think we can agree, the threat is real, and no outcome is good. sobering to think it is a real possibility Seoul, or LA could have millions incinerated.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Sep 15, 2017 - 10:38am PT
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What is the real aim of the brinksmanship?
Is the N. Korean leadership just crazy? Are the Chinese leaders also crazy? Are our leaders crazy?
I think they are not crazy. I think they are focused on what they perceive as survival.
They may not reject the label of unpredictability and crazy, because that also means un-forecast-able, which has proven to be the case. This element tends to stay the hand, because "who knows what a crazy person may do?"
But in any case, I don't believe that ANY outcome with N. Korea represents a threat to the species.
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Loose Rocks
Trad climber
Santa Rosa, CA
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Sep 15, 2017 - 11:16am PT
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“I think they are not crazy. I think they are focused on what they perceive as survival.”
This is likely his want/need. Kim and his regime and therefore his people believe that they’ve been at war all their lives. Kim himself grew up under the previous Kim. I can imagine that his view of the world given that he was thought what survival means through the eyes of his father. They’ve been taught all their lives that their very survival depends on the strength of their military. He probably thinks that if he could reach out and touch a couple of dozen of US’s most populous cities with 10 MTons of force he would be left alone. He is of course correct.
It’s hard to take ones shoes off and done the boots of another. The most dangerous weapon is indeed the point of view gun.
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Nuglet
Trad climber
Orange Murica!
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Sep 15, 2017 - 11:27am PT
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4. people keep reproducing
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Cragar
climber
MSLA - MT
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Sep 15, 2017 - 12:05pm PT
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^^someone finally threw the KO punch!
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crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
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Sep 16, 2017 - 09:50am PT
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A single nuclear-armed US submarine carries the TNT equivalent of roughly seven World War II’s. About 10 such subs are at sea at any given time.
About 400 nuclear-tipped missiles are stationed underground in Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, and North Dakota. They’re staffed 24/7 and kept on hair-trigger alert, ready to launch if and when they receive orders from the president.
As Commander in Chief, the president enjoys complete control over the US nuclear arsenal. No one in Congress, the judicial branch, or even the US military can legally prevent their use once the president’s order is given.
#1 threat = Donald Trump
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 16, 2017 - 11:42am PT
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crankster: you list Armageddon doomsday options that are hopefully way down the list of military measures that could (but hopefully will not) be implemented.
Arms Control Wonk Michael Krepon's article "PROLIFERATION IN THE AGE OF UNCERTAINTY" is worth a read...
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1203818/proliferation-in-the-age-of-uncertainty/
This really struck me in the recent CNN documentary on North Korea, the beauty of the Heaven Lake caldera at Mount Baekdu, on the northern border with China.
Of course, the documentary film did not show the labor camps that are described in Shin Dong-hyuk's "Escape from Camp 14."
Our only hope, is that cooler heads prevail...
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divad
Trad climber
wmass
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Topic Author's Reply - Sep 21, 2017 - 03:13pm PT
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4. Trump supporters...
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Gnome Ofthe Diabase
climber
Out Of Bed
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Sep 22, 2017 - 04:02am PT
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Any one know or care what Edgar Casey & or Nastrodamus had to say -visa-vie the ends of humanity?
PITY THE FOOL WHO CAN NOT ADMIT TO THE MISTAKE OF HIS CHOICES
far
i choose to be proud of having climbed with climbers like Gordo & Big AL
Not having spat bits in. Yber space with other victims of circumstance!
V V V V V
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Sep 22, 2017 - 08:55am PT
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1) Water
Has killed a lot of folks.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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Sep 22, 2017 - 09:27am PT
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Cosmic, I sincerely hope you don't lump Leprechauns with Gnomes. :-/
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Spider Savage
Mountain climber
The shaggy fringe of Los Angeles
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Sep 22, 2017 - 09:48am PT
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Just to get totally serious again, human kind seems capable of advancing at remarkable speed. If you follow half a billion years of the evolution of life attempting to survive on Earth, it follows that nature might develop a species capable of carrying Earth life beyond Earth to other worlds as an assurance that it might survive beyond the limitations of a single planet.
Therefore the greatest threats would be those that stop mankind from advancing and fulfilling this postulated manifest destiny; to populate this sector of the galaxy and at least, other worlds within our solar system.
The three things that pose a threat to life on Earth:
3. People with no ambition.
2. People who believe it is all hopeless, who keep finding reasons why we cannot advance.
1. Toxic personalities who work diligently to hold mankind back by perpetuating confusions such as wars, healthcare systems that create patients rather than well people, crime, and those who seek to divide us rather than work out ways for us to work together.
Eliminating #1 could actually bring near imortality to mankind within a hundred years.
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 22, 2017 - 12:01pm PT
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Let me fix the order for you WTF...
1. Liquor
2. Sperm
3. Egg
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 22, 2017 - 12:06pm PT
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What about Alpha Centauri going Type1a supernova? Life on earth would get "cooked" by the gamma radiation...wouldn't it?
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fear
Ice climber
hartford, ct
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Sep 22, 2017 - 12:26pm PT
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There's an ark on the moon if we need it...
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Nuglet
Trad climber
Orange Murica!
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Sep 22, 2017 - 12:42pm PT
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4. permadraws
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clinker
Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
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Sep 22, 2017 - 01:34pm PT
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Barking dogs
Dottards
Rocket men
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G_Gnome
Trad climber
Cali
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Sep 22, 2017 - 02:06pm PT
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For earth, self replicating nano bots. Someone will eventually try to build a freeway with them and end up cementing the whole world over.
But then also being a gnome and having climbed with T. Gordon and Big Al I am good to go till the end of the world.
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G_Gnome
Trad climber
Cali
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Sep 22, 2017 - 07:49pm PT
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We are always striving to take over the world. Never forget this...
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 22, 2017 - 08:05pm PT
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gmones
whiskey
aliens
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tuolumne_tradster
Trad climber
Leading Edge of North American Plate
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Sep 22, 2017 - 09:22pm PT
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Thanks Ed...I have my weekend reading assignment.
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crankster
Trad climber
No. Tahoe
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Sep 22, 2017 - 09:56pm PT
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Cosmic, you're a sad dude. And to think I felt some compassion for your health. No more. As the biggest Trumper on the forum you deserve it.
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