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wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Dec 13, 2016 - 03:26pm PT
The f*#k it wont

Middle class realist over here. I will probably be the first
dirtbag

climber
Dec 13, 2016 - 03:29pm PT
Fine, you take your suicide pill then, don't inflict your dystopic wish on the rest of us.
Brandon-

climber
The Granite State.
Dec 13, 2016 - 03:30pm PT
Hey Patrick (a couple of pages back. I build sh#t, no interneting at work), sweet little cove for bouldering man!

Also, somebody should dose the donald and find out what he really thinks. Marty Garrison, you work for NPR in DC, I'm looking at you!

Edit; it should be noted that Wilbeer is now self sufficient on his own property. Totally off grid, and that's rad. However, not everyone has that status, and are more invested is what's to come. To hole up on your property and watch everything else burn doesn't make you a member of society, you're just an outlier. I get where you're coming from Wilbeer, but I don't agree with it.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Dec 13, 2016 - 03:32pm PT
It was your wish voting for the Loser
I think I was warning you for over a year

You see I am going to blame H supporters for all of this,like it or not. It is completely your fault. Especially the weekend liberals that stayed home and did not vote.
I am especially bent at NY,we put T in the WH in the primary.
Patrick Sawyer

climber
Originally California now Ireland
Dec 13, 2016 - 03:42pm PT
I have been hand wringing, gnashing my teeth, telling myself, "Don't go there Patrick".

Why are we all getting our knickers in a twist.

Heck some of the vitriol on this thread, from all sides, as bad as many other threads.

Maybe now that I have had about two glasses of wine, I can sort of chill. It is not the alcohol, I'd rather have a puff of weed (like last time, ages ago).

Trump is in. I do not like it, as some of you agree, and others think it is the best thing since sliced bread.

But why get mean with one another?

I have already stated I despise Trump, and wrote why and I got little feedback, if that. Because I laid my cards on the table. And left it at that. I did not insult anyone, I think, except for the grand mogul himself. Gold escalators and gold seat belts? Heck, throw me one of those, it could pay some bills.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:09pm PT
Putin is laughing his a** off.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:11pm PT
Somebody, please wake me up when you get tired of winning.
Bob D'A

Trad climber
Taos, NM
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:19pm PT
"So, forgive me if I don't care to engage in conversation with the likes of Bob Du'h or 10b4tard They can't be honest with themselves so why would I expect it?'


So when are you going to stop? You are like a moth to a flame, easy pickings.


Great post Robert L.
perswig

climber
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:23pm PT
He is going to make things great again.
He is tots going to return things to a bygone-era of low national debt and high-discretionary spending.
You are going to see so many new jobs. But you aren't even going to need all those new jobs, because housing is going to become so affordable that you can buy something with a front and backyard on just one middle income.
And he is going to reducer the burdening interest on national debt by quickly repaying huge chunks. He is going to do this while simultaneously investing heaps of debt-free money in new infrastructure projects.
And the debt he isn't going to be able to repay yet, he is going to be able to cover by issuing huge wads of IOUS's at negative interest rates. Everyone will value notes with his signature and image on them, more than their re-tradeable value and be happy to wear that cost without having to take-out a debt themselves to pay for it.
You won't need to worry about climate change because Trump is going to ensure that insurance premiums will never have been cheaper. He will personally underwrite them all through his own businesses which have a long-history or providing great value at insanely below market-prices.
-You will be able to expect all of the above for the next 20-years because the laws will be changed to ensure Trump is able to be elected every 4-years, for the next 20. But those elections won't actually be needed because Trump will be a forgone winning conclusion..
And within 8-years of Trump leaving office, you will see a fellow family member run for office, and can then expect the same success for another 20-years more.

It's going to be amazballs.

Robert L, I think you are confusing Trump with Chuck Norris.

Dale
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:33pm PT
The real revelation is that it absolutely is US AND THEM. There is no going back and the divide will deepen - the only thing at stake is the speed at which the chasm opens. When both sides are fighting over who's brand of statism is the best, freedom dies.

Esco, Reilly will have to include you in the Robespierre Marching and Chowder Society list.

Curt

climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
Dec 13, 2016 - 04:39pm PT
Wasn't it "The Chief" that started "Bob Duh"???...

Yes, it was. "The Chief" not "Chief."

Please don't drag poor PB into this cesspool.

Curt
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 13, 2016 - 05:06pm PT
I'm appalled at some of the Trump cabinet picks.

I am trying to think of a Trump cabinet pick that doesn't appall me. Each one is a lower turd than the previous.

There is not a single pick that has shown, over time, a desire to help the average US citizen.

Correct me if I'm wrong, please.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Dec 13, 2016 - 05:12pm PT
I think doom for the EPA is a real thing at this point. And appointing a businessman anointed by Putin himself as SoS is a bit concerning, after the Russian intrusion on the election and all.

But it is all good! PE Trump has got our backs, right?

Did anyone check his combover for the mark of the beast yet?

dirtbag

climber
Dec 13, 2016 - 05:19pm PT
Flynn, the NSA pick, is f*#king nuts.

Perry is a climate science dipsh#t.

Um...his interior pick looks bad.

Transportation nominee looks harmless, and I hear positive things about Mattis.

Sessions and Bannon are trash.
Patrick Sawyer

climber
Originally California now Ireland
Dec 13, 2016 - 05:34pm PT
I'll play the game.

Hands up, who on this forum interviewed Maggie in Number 10?

August 1989.

I did not agree with her policies whatsoever, but she was one tough cookie.

She had just launched the TECs - Training and Enterprise Councils. I was editor of Training Personnel (out of Wembley, actually Stonebridge Park).

She would eat Donald for breakfast. He is a wimp. Maggie would chew his balls (apologies for being crass), spit them out and and say, "next".

EDIT

I made it out alive (No 10), a lot of journos didn't. On one side of the table (yes, it was a table, no couches, like other presidents and prime ministers I have interviewed), Maggie, a senior aide, an aide, senior press officer, press officer - five - daunting.

And little ole me on the other side of the table. Damn, I forgot my Listerine tablets. My garlic breath must have put her off.

EDIT

My point? Donald Trump is an effing wimp, a coward, a charlatan and I would say that to his face if I ever get the chance. I am no fan of Hillary, but I would bet she would have made a better foil to Maggie than The Donald ever could.

He is not my president. I accepted Nixon, Reagan and the Shrub as my presidents, but never Trump.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Dec 13, 2016 - 05:45pm PT
So anyway, I'm appalled at some of the Trump cabinet picks.

He's eliminating the middle man and putting the robber barons in direct control. Quite an efficiency, actually
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Dec 13, 2016 - 06:32pm PT
So, forgive me if I don't care to engage in conversation with the likes of Bob Du'h or 10b4tard


Need proof, Dingus.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 13, 2016 - 06:39pm PT
So, Rick Perry will now be Ed H's boss.

I did not see that coming. In charge of the entire nuclear arsenal.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Dec 13, 2016 - 06:54pm PT
Thomas Schelling has died. His ideas shaped the Cold War and the world.

By Henry Farrell December 13 at 5:35 PM

Professor Thomas C. Schelling receives his Nobel Prize.

The University of Maryland has confirmed the death of Thomas Schelling, perhaps the most important economist and social scientist of his generation. Most social scientists hope that their ideas will be read, and perhaps, if they are lucky, change people’s minds a little. Schelling’s ideas made the Cold War what it was and changed the world.

Schelling’s intellectual contribution will receive a lot of discussion over the coming days and weeks. He was one of the most important thinkers about game theory, an approach to modeling strategic interactions that has remade entire fields of study in the social sciences. Yet his work is anything but technically forbidding. He was a beautifully clear and precise writer. His three major books, “The Strategy of Conflict,” “Arms and Influence,” and “Micromotives and Macrobehavior” can be read by anyone with even a minimal exposure to social science thinking. Of these three, “The Strategy of Conflict” is a classic — a book that ought be read by everyone. Its ideas are not only relevant to international politics but to everyday life, the study of criminal behavior, and multitudes of other topics.

Schelling’s key arguments explain how communication happens. If we want to get others to do what we want, we need to communicate with them. Sometimes, when we do not have conflicting interests, we can coordinate on a shared solution, even if we are not able to talk with each other very well. If we want to meet in New York, but are not able to communicate with each other about the place and time, we can draw on our common knowledge to figure out a plausible place and time to meet up (perhaps Grand Central Terminal at midday). This is because some possible places and times to meet are salient — that is, our shared knowledge highlights them as ‘obvious’ solutions to the problem of coordinating on place and time. This simple insight turns out to have profound consequences for the study of cooperation.

However, sometimes we may have interests that conflict with each other, or even be enemies. Here too, communication can play a key role, but it is most likely to be effective if it is credible. For example, I might threaten to punish you if you do something that I don’t want you to do. However, punishing you is likely to be costly. This means that if you go ahead and do whatever it is that I don’t want you to do, I may then decide that it isn’t worth punishing you after all. And this also means that you (if you are farsighted) might look ahead into the future, figure that I am not going to punish you and do whatever you want to. In other words, my threat isn’t credible to you. To make my threats credible, I will have to bind myself somehow — constrain myself in ways that will make me deliver on the threat even if it is painful and costly for me.

Schelling used these basic insights to radically change the ways in which we think about conflict. When he started writing — at the beginning of the Cold War — the U.S. and the USSR didn’t have any very good way of communicating credibly with each other. This meant that the risk of disaster was very high. During the Cuban missile crisis, the U.S. and USSR nearly bluffed each other into a full scale nuclear war. Schelling’s contribution was to show how the two sides could think systematically about coordinating (where they had common interests) and deterring each other from unwanted actions (where they did not). This arguably gave rise to a much more stable world — the world of the Cold War — where both sides struggled with each other for dominance, but tacitly agreed on some of the rules of the game, and didn’t try to push each other too far. The Cold War was organized around deterrence, and deterrence mostly rested on Schelling’s ideas about credible threats


This logic had some remarkably coldblooded consequences, which Schelling described with a certain gusto. The U.S. stationed a small garrison in Berlin, which was embedded deep in East German territory, and indefensible against any serious attack. As Schelling described it, these soldiers’ job was not to defend the city but to die if it were attacked. This would then trigger a large scale U.S. response, since no U.S. president could tolerate the USSR killing American soldiers and not retaliate. Hence, by the logic of credible threats, the USSR would not attack Berlin, since it knew that the U.S. would have to punish it harshly, since it had effectively bound itself to deliver on the implied threat. Similarly, Schelling argued that the loss of thousands of American soldiers in the Korean War was a small price to pay if it preserved the U.S. reputation for resolve.

In Schelling’s framework, conflict was a kind of language, in which the words, sentences and paragraphs were composed of soldiers, nuclear missiles, and the deaths of myriad civilians. In a limited nuclear conflagration, the U.S. should target some USSR cities and not others, in order to convey messages to the other side about what its intentions were, and what it could and would do if it were truly provoked. This way of thinking was parodied in the movie “Dr. Strangelove” — yet it also helped prevent nuclear catastrophe over a period of decades. The Cold War was a vast intellectual construct in which threats that were never delivered on, and things that never happened (in the language of game theory, events that were ‘off the equilibrium path’) had enormous consequence for what did occur. Threats that are truly credible never have to be delivered on. Our understanding of how a Cold War could provide stability is owed to Schelling.

I never met Schelling, although I greatly admired his work. He lectured my kids’ Cub Scout troop a year or two before they joined up — he was a proud Eagle Scout. Schelling is far less well-known to the public than other scholars-turned-international-affairs-intellectuals such as Henry Kissinger, yet his legacy is inversely profounder and more vast.

In contrast to the Professor who wrote the above, I DID meet Prof Schelling several years ago, at a conference on nuclear arms. I remember the deference with which he was treated by the others on his panel, particularly by the man sitting next to him, Ash Carter, who is currently the Sec of Defense. A brilliant man who probably kept us all alive.
k-man

Gym climber
SCruz
Dec 13, 2016 - 06:59pm PT
He's eliminating the middle man and putting the robber barons in direct control. Quite an efficiency, actually

So very right. He's putting in place the very people who caused the 2008 crash, and the ones who benefited from the bailout.

Nikki Haley as UN Ambassador is about as close to sane as it gets, but from there it's lo0ney city. Bending the rules to put military into civilian cabinet posts, a complete turn around on our Attorney General. As the news anchor was saying, nobody on the Republican side can stand against the new admin for fear of being hung in the town square.

I feel sorry for the Texan delegate who has a soul.

It will be interesting to see where this goes--will there be real political resistance, and if so how far will that go.
There is one thing for sure--people are talking. Like never before.



Ken, good post, thx.
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