Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?

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Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 14, 2018 - 07:17pm PT
Interesting piece. More bad news--on top of the problem of a human population that has grown from 2bn-->7.5bn since Dr. Haber began fixing Nitrogen from the atmosphere and turning it into fertilizer. (And gassing Allied soldiers.) Science, Darwinism and Malthusian economics have brought us to this place. Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming from an interdisciplinary perspective--that don't involve humans adopting lemming-like behavior.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 10:28pm PT
"...on top of the problem of a human population that has grown from 2bn-->7.5bn ... Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming from an interdisciplinary perspective--that don't involve humans adopting lemming-like behavior."

Unbounded reproduction is "lemming-like behavior."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming
"The Norway lemming and brown lemming are two of the few vertebrates which reproduce so quickly that their population fluctuations are chaotic,[1][2] rather than following linear growth to a carrying capacity or regular oscillations...."

"Lemmings have become the subject of a widely popular misconception that they commit mass suicide when they migrate by jumping off cliffs. It is not a mass suicide but the result of their migratory behavior. Driven by strong biological urges, some species of lemmings may migrate in large groups when population density becomes too great. They can swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat. In such cases, many may drown if the body of water is so wide as to stretch their physical capabilities to the limit. This and the unexplained fluctuations in the population of Norwegian lemmings gave rise to the misconception.[8][9]"
Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 14, 2018 - 10:46pm PT
A population expanding in relation to available resources is what drove 20th century growth and, by extension, climate change. Resources made available through science. And it continues. My poor metaphor aside, I have come to believe that science will continue to squeeze resources here until the inevitable collapse or contraction. Unless folks in your discipline somehow manage to redefine the rules related to c.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:11pm PT
don't hold your breath on physicists figuring out a way around the "carrying capacity" of the planet.

getting people to stop reproducing would be a start, however, everyone holds that right to be fundamental.

that is a tragic paradox.
Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:23pm PT
Err, sorry, I meant the other "c." As in we're stuck here on Earth and generally screwed if nature is truly restricted by the speed of light. I guess even if we could redefine that we'd still get swallowed up by the entropy beyond?

No doubt, better idea to make this world a great place to live while we're here. A pretty complicated shift required.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 14, 2018 - 11:38pm PT
fantasizing about escaping the planet is just a form of escapism, one which avoids dealing with the difficult problems that face us.

considering the energy requirements to escape the planet you'd easily satisfy local energy needs and achieve sustainability, if the population was stable.

interestingly, one might view the growth of science and technology as dependent on the growth of the population, the more people there are, the more smart people there are, and with current technologies, all the people are connected, which is a limit (people can't get more connected).

so as the population begins to decrease, the ability to solve problems will also, another possible paradox based on a different way to see the "science revolution" you allude to.

there are limits, as implicitly expressed in your escape fantasy, and confronting those limits will dominate our future.
Ksolem

Trad climber
Monrovia, California
Apr 15, 2018 - 12:56pm PT
The good news is that since the mid 1960's the annual growth rate is falling fast, and the UN estimates that somewhere around 2100 our population will peak and begin to drop.

The bad news is that there will be over 11B of us by then. Or not.

The UN World Population Project projects that between this year and 2050 26 African countries will double in population.

With goods and people moving about the planet in ever greater numbers, I predict (from my armchair,) a pandemic of unthinkable proportions.

Credit: OurWorldInData
moosedrool

climber
Andrzej Citkowicz far away from Poland
Apr 15, 2018 - 03:13pm PT
Let’s assume we reached 10B and the growth rate became a negative 0.2%.

If the average life span is 80 years, how long will it take to reduce the population to just two people? (Assuming a normal population distribution).

Moose
Lituya

Mountain climber
Apr 15, 2018 - 03:16pm PT
interestingly, one might view the growth of science and technology as dependent on the growth of the population, the more people there are, the more smart people there are, and with current technologies, all the people are connected, which is a limit (people can't get more connected).

I believe this is probably true--but then again there are likely vast numbers of brilliant individuals who go through life with unrealized and/or unrecognized capabilities. Probably many who remain unconnected too. A smaller world population would have to do a better job helping people aspire, but I suspect there would still be more than enough "smarts" to do the science.

The economy and infrastructure that supports science is another matter?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Apr 15, 2018 - 09:16pm PT

Ocean circulation is changing, and we need to know why

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-04322-x
xCon

Social climber
909
Apr 16, 2018 - 04:05pm PT
Carbon dioxide from ships at sea will be regulated for the first time following a historic agreement reached after two weeks of detailed talks in London. From a report:

Shipping companies will halve their greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 under the plan, brokered by the International Maritime Organization and binding across its 170 member states.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/13/carbon-dioxide-from-ships-at-sea-to-be-regulated-for-first-time

wonder how that measured

per mile?
per hp?
or overall as an industry?

that last one would really be good
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 20, 2018 - 07:05pm PT
PNAS February 21, 2017. 201611576
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/02/14/1611576114


Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

Gerrad D. Jones, Boris Droz, Peter Greve, Pia Gottschalk, Deyan Poffet, Steve P. McGrath, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Pete Smith and Lenny H. E. Winkel

Abstract

Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 20, 2018 - 07:10pm PT
Science 20 Apr 2018: Vol. 360, Issue 6386, pp. 317-320
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6386/317.full

Unexpected reversal of C3 versus C4 grass response to elevated CO₂ during a 20-year field experiment

Peter B. Reich, Sarah E. Hobbie, Tali D. Lee, Melissa A. Pastore

Abstract
Theory predicts and evidence shows that plant species that use the C₄ photosynthetic pathway (C₄ species) are less responsive to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO₂) than species that use only the C₃ pathway (C₃ species). We document a reversal from this expected C₃-C₄ contrast. Over the first 12 years of a 20-year free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment with 88 C₃ or C₄ grassland plots, we found that biomass was markedly enhanced at eCO₂ relative to ambient CO₂ in C₃ but not C₄ plots, as expected. During the subsequent 8 years, the pattern reversed: Biomass was markedly enhanced at eCO₂ relative to ambient CO₂ in C₄ but not C₃ plots. Soil net nitrogen mineralization rates, an index of soil nitrogen supply, exhibited a similar shift: eCO₂ first enhanced but later depressed rates in C₃ plots, with the opposite true in C₄ plots, partially explaining the reversal of the eCO₂ biomass response. These findings challenge the current C₃-C₄ eCO₂ paradigm and show that even the best-supported short-term drivers of plant response to global change might not predict long-term results.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Apr 20, 2018 - 07:21pm PT
on shipping:

UN body adopts climate change strategy for shipping

AntiChrist

Gym climber
Urth
Apr 21, 2018 - 07:23am PT
more people there are, the more smart people there are,

Also more dumb people. Way, way more dumb people. The pdf of human intelligence is highly skewed due to genetics and society. Now that we don't need the dumb ones for labor we need to do a much better job of selective breeding and raising the ones we breed.
TLP

climber
Apr 21, 2018 - 09:47am PT
Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming

There is one, which should be palatable to nearly all political/social persuasions (with one very notable exception): educate kids, especially girls. As summarized here: http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2011/highlights13 increasing the percentage of girls who attain secondary education correlates strongly with reduced fertility. It's good research, multiple studies, not just this one source. It's a great solution because it does not entail imposing restrictions, but rather, just providing something positive.
wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Apr 21, 2018 - 06:14pm PT
A good friend just got back from Africa where he said it rained for three weeks straight in a desert that has not seen rain in many years. He retreated to South Africa where it was going through a heat cycle that set records and trees were still very green.
It is fall there.
Meanwhile over here it was the second coldest April ever recorded with over 20 record temps recorded. 80 mph winds .

Daily I would check temps in Fairbanks,warmer than Rochester a majority of the time.

Climate Change is a hoax.

Scientists are out of work losing thousands.

Fossil fuel corporations recording billion dollar profits.



neverwas

Mountain climber
ak
Apr 21, 2018 - 11:02pm PT
Speaking of Fairbanks... This winter was extraordinarily warm, if you were to ignore most of the past 10 or 15 years. It maybe reached -30 for a day or two, vs the normally dependable several weeks of -40 or -50 or colder that used to be. New this year was several weeks of 'lake effect' snow coming at us from the west, courtesy of the ice-free or ice-lean Chukchi and Bering seas, and lacking any mountains to wring out the moisture before our modest uplands. The deep snow and warmer temps are doing nothing to help maintain the status quo of frozen soils (read: muck), so we can expect increased thawing to destabilize roads and other structures. On the plus side, the skiing's been great, fatbiking not so bad either, and the mosquitos seem to have taken a real hit over the past several years (sorry, birds). Kind of makes one yearn for the quaint old days of denier theories of summing several natural cycles to explain warmer temps. That argument sort of denies itself after a while.

Here are a couple of mountains and a bike pic or two to be less depressing...

Kimball
Kimball
Credit: neverwas
Natazhat
Natazhat
Credit: neverwas
crunched bike, thanks to January rain
crunched bike, thanks to January rain
Credit: neverwas
new & improved bike in spring, almost crust-riding conditions
new & improved bike in spring, almost crust-riding conditions
Credit: neverwas
xCon

Social climber
909
Apr 21, 2018 - 11:25pm PT
agreed upon science locks in sea rise amounts which will afforded ports essential to commerce essential to life as we know it being rendered impossible

wilbeer

Mountain climber
Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,
Apr 22, 2018 - 07:25am PT
Crust riding does rule.

Glad you’re concerned.
Thusday
Thusday
Credit: wilbeer
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