Climate Change: Why aren't more people concerned about it?

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List

This thread has been locked

Messages 1521 - 1540 of total 2200 in this topic

<< First | < Previous | Show All | Next > | Last >>

EdwardT

Trad climber

Retired

Apr 12, 2018 - 03:37pm PT

basically we need a ration system for gasoline (reminds one of WW2)

How about a progressive tax?

20 cents/gal for the first 500 gallons per year. Increase by 20 cents at each 500 gal. milestone. Make allowances business or special needs travel.

Forget about CAFE standards. Let the Yukon/Suburban/Sequoia loves pay a fat premium.

Lituya

Mountain climber

Apr 13, 2018 - 12:08pm PT

It's refreshing to read anything on the topic published by other disciplines. And this is probably one of the most rhetorically brilliant and convincing pieces I've read on human impact in a while.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-earths-only-civilization/557180/

It’s not often that you write a paper proposing a hypothesis that you don’t support. Gavin and I don’t believe the Earth once hosted a 50-million-year-old Paleocene civilization. But by asking if we could “see” truly ancient industrial civilizations, we were forced to ask about the generic kinds of impacts any civilization might have on a planet. That’s exactly what the astrobiological perspective on climate change is all about.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 14, 2018 - 11:42am PT

interesting article in Science
Convergent evidence for widespread rock nitrogen sources in Earth’s surface environment
B. Z. Houlton, S. L. Morford, R. A. Dahlgren

Abstract
Nitrogen availability is a pivotal control on terrestrial carbon sequestration and global climate change. Historical and contemporary views assume that nitrogen enters Earth’s land-surface ecosystems from the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that bedrock is a nitrogen source that rivals atmospheric nitrogen inputs across major sectors of the global terrestrial environment. Evidence drawn from the planet’s nitrogen balance, geochemical proxies, and our spatial weathering model reveal that ~19 to 31 teragrams of nitrogen are mobilized from near-surface rocks annually. About 11 to 18 teragrams of this nitrogen are chemically weathered in situ, thereby increasing the unmanaged (preindustrial) terrestrial nitrogen balance from 8 to 26%. These findings provide a global perspective to reconcile Earth’s nitrogen budget, with implications for nutrient-driven controls over the terrestrial carbon sink.

this is an interesting article on a number of ways. First it helps to describe an important cycle in Earth System models, the Nitrogen cycle. Nitrogen is an important resource for plants, and a huge amount of contemporary nitrogen is produced by humans.

The paper also points out that nitrogen availability controls plant growth and limits the amount of carbon plants can use, thus limits on natural sequestration.

When Dyson concluded global warming was "no big deal" because if it were happening all we'd have to do is plant trees, he didn't consider the fact that trees also need nutrients, and lacking those nutrients, the trees don't grow.

This makes a much more nuanced case regarding carbon dioxide as a "fertilizer," plants can't grow without all the other nutrients too, no matter what the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Ksolem

Trad climber

Monrovia, California

Apr 14, 2018 - 12:28pm PT

t seems to me that the only thing that's going to "save" humanity at this point is a massive population decrease via either pandemic/disease, crop failure, or war(s).

Then again, carbon capture is becoming a "thing" so maybe we can scale that up in a hurry. The catholic church needs to join the modern age and get off the anti-birthcontrol madness. We need less humans on this planet, not more. Even if climate change wasn't an issue, resource shortages will be.

"...or war(s)."

By far the least desirable option since a war large enough to significantly reduce population will be nuclear, the damage to the ecology will likely be irreparable. If one of our 18 Ohio Class ballistic missile subs unloads that is 192-288 warheads that make Hiroshima look like a firecracker. The Trident missiles carry 8-12 warheads with up to 475 kt and a range of up to 7K miles (Hiroshima was 12-15 kt.)

And yes, the Catholic Church is a morally bankrupt institution. They still teach that contraception is a sin in third world countries around the world. Despicable.

Sorry, I know the nuke stats are OT, but I don't think a lot of people understand the insane destructive power we have.

Lituya

Mountain climber

Apr 14, 2018 - 07:17pm PT

Interesting piece. More bad news--on top of the problem of a human population that has grown from 2bn-->7.5bn since Dr. Haber began fixing Nitrogen from the atmosphere and turning it into fertilizer. (And gassing Allied soldiers.) Science, Darwinism and Malthusian economics have brought us to this place. Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming from an interdisciplinary perspective--that don't involve humans adopting lemming-like behavior.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 14, 2018 - 10:28pm PT

"...on top of the problem of a human population that has grown from 2bn-->7.5bn ... Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming from an interdisciplinary perspective--that don't involve humans adopting lemming-like behavior."

Unbounded reproduction is "lemming-like behavior."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lemming
"The Norway lemming and brown lemming are two of the few vertebrates which reproduce so quickly that their population fluctuations are chaotic,[1][2] rather than following linear growth to a carrying capacity or regular oscillations...."

"Lemmings have become the subject of a widely popular misconception that they commit mass suicide when they migrate by jumping off cliffs. It is not a mass suicide but the result of their migratory behavior. Driven by strong biological urges, some species of lemmings may migrate in large groups when population density becomes too great. They can swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat. In such cases, many may drown if the body of water is so wide as to stretch their physical capabilities to the limit. This and the unexplained fluctuations in the population of Norwegian lemmings gave rise to the misconception.[8][9]"

Lituya

Mountain climber

Apr 14, 2018 - 10:46pm PT

A population expanding in relation to available resources is what drove 20th century growth and, by extension, climate change. Resources made available through science. And it continues. My poor metaphor aside, I have come to believe that science will continue to squeeze resources here until the inevitable collapse or contraction. Unless folks in your discipline somehow manage to redefine the rules related to c.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 14, 2018 - 11:11pm PT

don't hold your breath on physicists figuring out a way around the "carrying capacity" of the planet.

getting people to stop reproducing would be a start, however, everyone holds that right to be fundamental.

that is a tragic paradox.

Lituya

Mountain climber

Apr 14, 2018 - 11:23pm PT

Err, sorry, I meant the other "c." As in we're stuck here on Earth and generally screwed if nature is truly restricted by the speed of light. I guess even if we could redefine that we'd still get swallowed up by the entropy beyond?

No doubt, better idea to make this world a great place to live while we're here. A pretty complicated shift required.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 14, 2018 - 11:38pm PT

fantasizing about escaping the planet is just a form of escapism, one which avoids dealing with the difficult problems that face us.

considering the energy requirements to escape the planet you'd easily satisfy local energy needs and achieve sustainability, if the population was stable.

interestingly, one might view the growth of science and technology as dependent on the growth of the population, the more people there are, the more smart people there are, and with current technologies, all the people are connected, which is a limit (people can't get more connected).

so as the population begins to decrease, the ability to solve problems will also, another possible paradox based on a different way to see the "science revolution" you allude to.

there are limits, as implicitly expressed in your escape fantasy, and confronting those limits will dominate our future.

Ksolem

Trad climber

Monrovia, California

Apr 15, 2018 - 12:56pm PT

The good news is that since the mid 1960's the annual growth rate is falling fast, and the UN estimates that somewhere around 2100 our population will peak and begin to drop.

The bad news is that there will be over 11B of us by then. Or not.

The UN World Population Project projects that between this year and 2050 26 African countries will double in population.

With goods and people moving about the planet in ever greater numbers, I predict (from my armchair,) a pandemic of unthinkable proportions.

Lituya

Mountain climber

Apr 15, 2018 - 03:16pm PT

interestingly, one might view the growth of science and technology as dependent on the growth of the population, the more people there are, the more smart people there are, and with current technologies, all the people are connected, which is a limit (people can't get more connected).

I believe this is probably true--but then again there are likely vast numbers of brilliant individuals who go through life with unrealized and/or unrecognized capabilities. Probably many who remain unconnected too. A smaller world population would have to do a better job helping people aspire, but I suspect there would still be more than enough "smarts" to do the science.

The economy and infrastructure that supports science is another matter?

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 20, 2018 - 07:05pm PT

PNAS February 21, 2017. 201611576
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/02/14/1611576114

Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change

Gerrad D. Jones, Boris Droz, Peter Greve, Pia Gottschalk, Deyan Poffet, Steve P. McGrath, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Pete Smith and Lenny H. E. Winkel

Abstract

Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980–1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate–soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080–2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate–soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 20, 2018 - 07:10pm PT

Science 20 Apr 2018: Vol. 360, Issue 6386, pp. 317-320
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6386/317.full

Unexpected reversal of C3 versus C4 grass response to elevated CO₂ during a 20-year field experiment
Peter B. Reich, Sarah E. Hobbie, Tali D. Lee, Melissa A. Pastore

Abstract
Theory predicts and evidence shows that plant species that use the C₄ photosynthetic pathway (C₄ species) are less responsive to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO₂) than species that use only the C₃ pathway (C₃ species). We document a reversal from this expected C₃-C₄ contrast. Over the first 12 years of a 20-year free-air CO₂ enrichment experiment with 88 C₃ or C₄ grassland plots, we found that biomass was markedly enhanced at eCO₂ relative to ambient CO₂ in C₃ but not C₄ plots, as expected. During the subsequent 8 years, the pattern reversed: Biomass was markedly enhanced at eCO₂ relative to ambient CO₂ in C₄ but not C₃ plots. Soil net nitrogen mineralization rates, an index of soil nitrogen supply, exhibited a similar shift: eCO₂ first enhanced but later depressed rates in C₃ plots, with the opposite true in C₄ plots, partially explaining the reversal of the eCO₂ biomass response. These findings challenge the current C₃-C₄ eCO₂ paradigm and show that even the best-supported short-term drivers of plant response to global change might not predict long-term results.

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber

Livermore, CA

Apr 20, 2018 - 07:21pm PT

on shipping:

UN body adopts climate change strategy for shipping

TLP

climber

Apr 21, 2018 - 09:47am PT

Hopefully there are some good solutions forthcoming

There is one, which should be palatable to nearly all political/social persuasions (with one very notable exception): educate kids, especially girls. As summarized here: http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2011/highlights13 increasing the percentage of girls who attain secondary education correlates strongly with reduced fertility. It's good research, multiple studies, not just this one source. It's a great solution because it does not entail imposing restrictions, but rather, just providing something positive.

wilbeer

Mountain climber

Terence Wilson greeneck alleghenys,ny,

Apr 21, 2018 - 06:14pm PT

A good friend just got back from Africa where he said it rained for three weeks straight in a desert that has not seen rain in many years. He retreated to South Africa where it was going through a heat cycle that set records and trees were still very green.
It is fall there.
Meanwhile over here it was the second coldest April ever recorded with over 20 record temps recorded. 80 mph winds .

Daily I would check temps in Fairbanks,warmer than Rochester a majority of the time.

Climate Change is a hoax.

Scientists are out of work losing thousands.

Fossil fuel corporations recording billion dollar profits.

neverwas

Mountain climber

Apr 21, 2018 - 11:02pm PT

Speaking of Fairbanks... This winter was extraordinarily warm, if you were to ignore most of the past 10 or 15 years. It maybe reached -30 for a day or two, vs the normally dependable several weeks of -40 or -50 or colder that used to be. New this year was several weeks of 'lake effect' snow coming at us from the west, courtesy of the ice-free or ice-lean Chukchi and Bering seas, and lacking any mountains to wring out the moisture before our modest uplands. The deep snow and warmer temps are doing nothing to help maintain the status quo of frozen soils (read: muck), so we can expect increased thawing to destabilize roads and other structures. On the plus side, the skiing's been great, fatbiking not so bad either, and the mosquitos seem to have taken a real hit over the past several years (sorry, birds). Kind of makes one yearn for the quaint old days of denier theories of summing several natural cycles to explain warmer temps. That argument sort of denies itself after a while.

Here are a couple of mountains and a bike pic or two to be less depressing...