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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 12, 2016 - 04:26pm PT
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Again, no one who has had documents release has questioned the veracity of those documents the origins of which are known as opposed to the bible with its highly dubious provenance. Again, you haven't heard Podesta question whether the email were his - ditto Colin Powell. There's simply no need or reason to fake or alter these documents - bare nakedness is the whole point of the exercise.
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Patrick Sawyer
climber
Originally California now Ireland
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Oct 12, 2016 - 04:29pm PT
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Susan, I too question some (some not all) of the veracity of Wikileaks. As well, I wonder if there are any (hidden) agendas by some involved, including Assange, especially.
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Ken M
Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
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Oct 12, 2016 - 04:29pm PT
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Curt, you are misinterpreting the graph from 538. Perhaps you mean to, tongue in cheek?
Those are the probabilities that the polls are right, not the projected percentages of the vote. So, no, Trump is NOWHERE near Johnson.
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 12, 2016 - 04:32pm PT
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Those are the probabilities that the polls are right, not the projected percentages of the vote. So, no, Trump is NOWHERE near Johnson.
The graph is not the probability that the polls are "right." It is the percentage chance, based on running 20,000 election simulations, that each candidate has of being elected president. You are correct though, that it is not a projected percentage of the vote. If you click the right tab "popular vote" it will give you that.
Curt
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nah000
climber
no/w/here
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Oct 12, 2016 - 04:50pm PT
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so all you wikileaks doubters...
do you have the same skepticism of all sources, regardless of their generally being highly regarded [say the bbc, for example]?
or just the ones that you don't like the messaging of?
and most importantly do you have one spec of evidence that something wikileaks has put out was actually fabricated/manufactured?
honest questions... especially the last one.
thanks in advance.
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Skeptimistic
Mountain climber
La Mancha
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Oct 12, 2016 - 04:55pm PT
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do you have one spec of evidence that something wikileaks has put out was actually fabricated/manufactured?
Do you have one speck of evidence everything is true?
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nah000
climber
no/w/here
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:05pm PT
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Skeptimistic [good name given the convo, by the way]:
you mean other than my not being aware that anything they've leaked has been shown to be be false?
ie. what you are asking for [evidence that everything a given entity says is always true] is of course an absurd requirement... all any entity has its historical credibility [or lack thereof]... including wikileaks.
and as far as i've seen the historical credibility of wikileaks the organization [not julian assange - he has been at times a verifiable windbag] has been impeccable. i don't claim to know everything, so if i'm missing something i'd be happy to be shown i'm wrong.
hence my questions... just curious if you are folks who question everything regardless of its reputability...
or if you have a specific reason for doubting wikileaks...
you know based on actual evidence.
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monolith
climber
state of being
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:06pm PT
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Ad hominems aside, what fact checkers do you trust, Cosmic?
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:09pm PT
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Interesting point about teaching orthodoxy in everything except science. I agree that should be fixed, including in science.
History is not taught with the context that it is the story espoused by the victors. I never had a history or social studies class that showed the eternal struggle for power and resources between different groups as a unifying principle or framework to help understand it.
Even in any science or math class when kids are growing up, the focus is on a series of facts and models to memorize, until you get pretty far along (e.g. last half of undergrad college or later) to start seeing how observations were inconsistent with prior models which led to the development of more advanced models. Kids learning these subjects just absorb the data with little filter or logical framework in the same way that they would absorb religious teachings.
Starting education with the overarching framework of "observe, model, test/verify, repeat" might be a good way to go to continually refine these skills. Use this as a lens for teaching history and social studies, creating a window into human behavior and societal organization. Develop hypotheses from analyzing some part of history, and see if those have predictive value when studying different cultures or periods in history. Use the model as a framework to train people in science and math in a way that mimics human acquisition of knowledge over many generations, based on direct physical observations and what worked and when it broke down when more precision was required, and how the better models came about and how they better matched up to the observations. Kids should do more lab-based work, more experiments, to recreate the knowledge acquired over many generations.
I think there should be some mandatory (i.e. not subject to parental op-out) comparative religion class in school that at least makes kids familiar with the beliefs and core values and social/historical context in which those religions were formed. It can be explored in terms of what unmet needs of individuals and society are met by the religion. That historical context can be juxtaposed with the modern reality of how practitioners of the religion blend that part of their lives with a modern multi-cultural society. That can be considered without passing judgment on the articles of faith of each religion. Having such a baseline education would make our populace less vulnerable to the xenophobic manipulations used by folks like Trump. My kids' school did hae a variety of cultural events for kids to celebrate the foods and clothing and unique parts of their different cultures, but religion is still somewhat of a taboo.
Edit:
and most importantly do you have one spec of evidence that something wikileaks has put out was actually fabricated/manufactured
I start out neutral with any source, hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. I update my assessment over time based on what I perceive in relation to my model of accepted truisms. When I note biases or specific agendas, I keep that in mind when considering the input, and I am careful to distinguish facts from conclusions and how well the conclusions are anchored in facts.
I haven't made the effort to delve into Wikileaks, but from my neutral perspective I think there are big power-brokers attempting to influence our perception in different directions, and the distortions from that are difficult to sort from what is real. The chain of evidence in Wikileaks documents is suspect, which would necessarily be the case when trying to get secrets out of a corrupt system but it's not the only explanation. At this point I treat it all as valid leads for enterprising journalists to pursue and develop corroborating evidence and when there is a concrete story in the vein of old-style news articles with real investigative journalism, those points should be elevated to real news stories. Just republishing bits and pieces of Wikileaks stuff is noise.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:14pm PT
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Susan, I too question some (some not all) of the veracity of Wikileaks. As well, I wonder if there are any (hidden) agendas by some involved, including Assange, especially.
Everyone has an agenda. An agenda is why wikileaks exists. Not forging either the material they release or the provenance of those documents is the whole point of the exercise - all they'd be doing is f*#king themselves. It's a mindset sort of deal they aren't going to be departing from.
And they not only do their own due diligence, but on the big releases they've collaborated with the Guardian, Der Spiegel and WaPo which all did their own audits on the documents' provenance.
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dirtbag
climber
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:15pm PT
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He doesn't want to end up Fostered and found committing suicide by shooting himself twice in the head.
How did we manage the last 10 months without tgt posting nonsense like this?
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rbord
Boulder climber
atlanta
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:15pm PT
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The prior probability that wikileaks is true depends a lot on how we set the prior probability that wikileaks (or the bible) is true... On the one side, p is really close to 1. On the other, not so much. Same for the projected probabilities that the 538 forecast is true.
Seems like Trump understands that well enough to start saying that the polls are rigged too. If it's probable that the polls were rigged for Clinton (where in his fantasyland reality really he's ahead), and then the vote comes out Clinton - hell, see, they rigged that too!
Information is junior league stuff. The big boys (sexism intended) are playing with the meta information. Bastards! I don't expect that people will buy it, but this election isn't increasing my confidence in that belief.
It's only logical to us if it confirms our pre-existing belief. (Yes, hyperbole) Each of us is motivated to act according to our beliefs, and evolution helps us be righter in the future.
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zBrown
Ice climber
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:20pm PT
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As far as fact checking, I gotta go with Jack Webb.
"just the facts ma'am".
I'll nominate him for the position of omnibus (you're either on it or your off it) double-chubby-checker of all others.
Like Kesey said, "it may not be what happened, but it's the truth"
Or was he just reputed to have said it.
Can we get an Amen for getting out of the dung heap and just live by our motto - garbage is where you find it, either inside of outside the bus.
Tell me the truth or I'll kill your dog.
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/FNECGB/a-young-man-picks-garbage-on-a-dump-near-a-bus-station-next-to-the-FNECGB.jpg
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:29pm PT
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but this election isn't increasing my confidence in that belief.
Well, it's the real world of late techwise and the fifty incompetent states running ancient rube goldberg voting systems doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
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NutAgain!
Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:33pm PT
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I think THIS is one of the biggest real issues facing the world:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/12/technology/obama-ai-jobs-robots/index.html
And it has no attention in our present election discussions. The minimum wage laws will be a joke as this cancer spreads. We aren't ready for it as a society, but that won't stop it from burying us. This is not futurist conspiracy stuff. It is real. My current job is exactly to automate what people do manually.
And AI automates the process of automating things! Accelerating the rich/poor divide, making all the sci-fi dystopia movies look like a documentary... unless we have a government regulatory framework to manage the financial consequences of the technology. I'm afraid of having a mob take-over that kills the innovators, but I'm also afraid of the innovators crushing the mob. We need government regulation to help find a sustainable balance. That is why I was so pro-Bernie in the primaries, because he focused on key issues that affect how our government serves all citizens vs those with the money. As more time passes, it will become more and more difficult to root on the systemic corruption that blocks our government from serving the interests of human citizens.
Many people will sh!t a brick thinking about a government paycheck as a baseline right, but such people are not in tune with our future that will be upon us much quicker than we all think.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:38pm PT
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The issue isn't so much job obsolescence as the pace of that obsolescence. We automated farming in this country and wiped out tens of millions of jobs, but it happened over the span tens of decades. The issue now is that something like self-driving cars could put car and truck drivers out of a job in a span of a very few years. Ditto pilots and ship crews. It's a problem no doubt.
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Curt
climber
Gold Canyon, AZ
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:41pm PT
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Same for the projected probabilities that the 538 forecast is true.
Apples and Oranges, I think. With 538, we have the historical fact that, in 2012, they predicted the election outcomes correctly in all 50 out of 50 states (and hence correctly predicted the exact electoral college result) and in 2008 they got 49 out of 50 states right.
Curt
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Fritz
Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:51pm PT
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dirtbag! Re your mention about TGT's weird post:
"He doesn't want to end up Fostered and found committing suicide by shooting himself twice in the head."
You replied:
How did we manage the last 10 months without tgt posting nonsense like this?
It's OK. Escopeta has been diligent at Trump-eting that odd & paranoid conspiracy theory.
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nah000
climber
no/w/here
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Oct 12, 2016 - 05:59pm PT
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cool Susan...
got no issues with that. all sources should be considered suspect for sure...
that said, wikileaks has a better track record than any news source that i'm aware of.
[and as far as i read, your story only talks about how people manipulated a doc after wikileaks released what was an authentic doc... ie. not wiki's fault and/or prob...]
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