When TRUMP wins...

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High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:05pm PT
NutAgain, you can climb with me anytime!

Excellent thoughtful post.

I wonder if gobee would read it carefully? And then mull it over carefully?
Maybe in lieu of his photo links?

"Folks who have the mental faculties to understand these dynamics, and who have the moral disposition to want a better world for all, get really frustrated by folks who can't see it (or who can see it but choose a self-promoting approach). And the folks who can't see it get resentful of the folks who look down at them, insult them for being stupid etc.... This leads to escalating defensive responses on both sides and the extreme polarization we find today in our society."

....

So get this...

Let's give President Obama the best parting gift ever: 17 days in January with a Democratic Senate!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/12/1581464/-Let-s-give-President-Obama-the-best-parting-gift-ever-17-days-in-January-with-a-Democratic-Senate
NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:07pm PT
How does one create a representative national poll with ~800 people? Random phone number lists? How to ensure representative distribution of incomes, working industry, marital status, race, religion, family relations with immigrant status, etc....

Without pointing at any of this stuff, it's just a non-random and biased slice of the American pie with no information on how it is biased.


Edit: HFCS, I'd be happy to climb with you, and it will probably have to wait a few more years until my kids go to college. Most of my weekends are shuttling up to SF Bay to spend time with them, and back down in SoCal during the week, trying to catch up on work, not leaving as much time for climbing and other outdoor adventures as I'd like. I do get lots of micro-breaks during my work-day, which leaves me living vicariously through trip reports here and sporadically letting myself get embroiled in politics.
splitclimber

climber
Sonoma County
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:12pm PT
just watched the American Experience film on Nixon. Wow. so many similarities with Trump it is scary

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/nixon/
dirtbag

climber
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:16pm PT
Talking about Bill Clinton again?

Bill is an amateur compared to trump. I've never heard of Bill walking into teenagers' dressing rooms, or bragging about being able to sexually assault women at will.

Still, I really hope he keeps his Johnson in his pants this time around, or at least keeps it ultra-discreet.
10b4me

Mountain climber
Retired
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:21pm PT
I agree, good post NutAgain.

I heard that some conservatives are saying how ironic it is that Hollywood types are calling out trump on his "locker room" comments. They complain that the irony is that Hollywood is behind the moral decline of the country.
dirtbag

climber
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:25pm PT
It's disgusting how they trivialize his bragging about sexual assault as locker room talk.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:29pm PT
Per my earlier mention of a Washington Post article on Trump bragging to Howard Stern:

“I’ll tell you the funniest is that I’ll go backstage before a show and everyone’s getting dressed,” Trump said. “… I’m allowed to go in, because I’m the owner of the pageant and therefore I’m inspecting it…. ‘Is everyone okay’? You know, they’re standing there with no clothes. ‘Is everybody okay?’ And you see these incredible looking women, and so I sort of get away with things like that.”

Witnesses, that were teenagers then, are coming forward to talk about Trump barging into the dressing room unannounced, while they were changing to bikinis.
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=trump+%26+nude+teen+usa+contestants


From the Tenn USA website:

Miss Teen USA candidates must be at least 14 and under 19 years of age before January 1st in the year they hope to compete in the Miss Teen USA pageant.


Aren't there child molestation laws that apply here?
monolith

climber
state of being
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:35pm PT

JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:43pm PT
Good post, Scott (AKA Nut Again). Most of us in both parties share common goals, but both parties have very different ideas of how to get there. I could quibble about your characterization of the attraction of the two parties but it would be just that -- a quibble.

I see the real problem as a lack of trustworthy information sources. Public trust in the news media keeps falling and, in my opinion, for good reason. We can't even agree on facts, much less conclusions about them. I don't watch Fox News, and I don't listen to right-wing (or any other) commentators, so I can't tell you how they distort things, but I could go on forever about how ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and NPR do. I'm sure the Democrats could tell you about the distortions on the right.

I think that both Clinton and Trump have been in the public eye long enough that people have formed their opinions, and a majority probably think that neither are what we would call "nice." Both have campaigned mainly on the fact they are not the other, and the media have focused on their attacks of each other's persons, not on their policy differences.

Part of that I blame on Trump. Does he even have policies in place? The only specifics he's given are his moratorium on Muslim immigration, that probably is unconstitutional, and a list of potential SCOTUS appointments, which are good. Even his attacks on trade and his other immigration proposals are vague. He'll make Mexico pay for a wall? How, pray tell?

The mainstream press has been pretty good about pointing this out in Trump -- after he got the nomination. It has been less good about pointing out the inconsistencies (to put it nicely) in Clinton's. How will a tax increase and increased regulation cause an economic expansion? All of the empirical data shows that it won't, but because the press has devolved into entertainment reporting, trained economists don't get heard.

Fortunately, we still have the news pages of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal that usually report objectively and, at least in the latter case, choose a fair range of topics upon which to report. We have The Economist, too, but little else. NPR always reported on topics consistent with a left-of-center agenda, but used to ask tough questions of all sides. No more.

And about your question of how representative a small sample is of the opinions of 350 million people, statistical theory confirms that a sample of 800 people that are truly randomly selected is extremely likely (i.e. within about, say 3 percentage points) to reflect the entire population's opinions of a properly worded issue, but therein lies the rub. Exactly what was the question, and what the conclusion?

Let me give you an example. Suppose I ask my sample the question "Do you think Hillary Clinton always tells the truth?" I'd be surprised if a majority said "yes," because no one always tells the truth. If I try to conclude from the responses that the percentage saying "no" believes that Hillary Clinton is "untrustworthy," I make an erroneous conclusion from my sample. The size of the sample doesn't cause the error. The poorly-worded question does.

Thus, this all comes back to an objective source of facts. Any suggestions?

John

P.S.

just watched the American Experience film on Nixon. Wow. so many similarities with Trump it is scary

I was thinking the same thing about the similarities with Hillary Clinton, except, as noted, she would have destroyed the tapes immediately upon the breaking of the scandal.
Sparky

Trad climber
vagabond movin on
Oct 12, 2016 - 12:55pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Burnin' Oil

Trad climber
CA
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:10pm PT
NutAgain,

I usually enjoy your posts but your penultimate post describes republicans as a collection of scared, ignorant and easily-manipulated tools. You also imply those who don't agree with your analysis lack sufficient mental faculties and/or a proper moral disposition.

In other words, your argument is no different than most arguments in this thread - I am smart and those who disagree are not.

The bottom line is Hillary sucks, but not as much as Trump. That does not equate to the Democrat Party being superior to the Republican Party.

I am not a Democrat or a Republican and will not vote for either party's candidate.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:17pm PT
"The bottom line is Hillary sucks..." -burnin oil

Apart from the 20 year plus bs narratives of Fox and Limbaugh and Hannity and Falwell (rip) repeated endlessly endlessly endlessly how so?

Put up or shut up.




Yeah, and Jesus walked on water and exorcised demons from a man into pigs. Yeah, ain't that smart? What century is this?

and will not vote for either party's candidate.

proud!
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:21pm PT
I don't like admitting that I may be wrong about anything, but the article by George Schultz, below, is causing me to pause in my support of Gary Johnson:

http://www.hoover.org/research/danger-empty-threats?utm_source=hdr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2016-10-12

While I find Johnson's "leave it alone" policy better than some of the disaster of the last 16 years, we realistically can't leave it alone and expect a better world.

While I still intend to vote for him, the article by Schultz is one more nail in my personal coffin of Trump. Restraint remains a foreign concept (so to speak) to him.

John
Sparky

Trad climber
vagabond movin on
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:22pm PT
Conversely, if there was anything even close to a smoking gun in any of Hillary's released or hacked e-mails it would be headline news.

Not if they have the same owners...which they do.
StahlBro

Trad climber
San Diego, CA
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:24pm PT
I keep seeing the "Hillary sucks" comments, but how is she different than any other career politician? As career politicians go, she is probably more competent than most.

If your argument is is we need alternatives to today's career politicians, I agree with that. But supporting someone like Chump plays right into the hands of the power elite. It makes any alternative look rediculous, and even dangerous.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:27pm PT
I usually enjoy your posts but your penultimate post describes republicans as a collection of scared, ignorant and easily-manipulated tools. You also imply those who don't agree with your analysis lack sufficient mental faculties and/or a proper moral disposition.

Burnin' Oil, I understood NutAgain to mean that both sides view the other in those terms, but you may be right. I sense an increasing lack of appreciation that intelligent people can disagree, but on both sides of the political spectrum. Even a relatively intelligent conservative source, such as the Heritage Foundation, has little concept of why people disagree. Those on the left, being reinforced by political correctness in education and bias in media, at least have a plausible excuse for the inability to comprehend counter arguments, but how could a conservative?

John
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:33pm PT
"pause in my support of Gary Johnson:"

Well, it's about time.

So you think Johnson's Aleppo moment was simply a reflection of his anti-imperialism?

I can respect that, but even if you choose to focus on matters closer to home, one should still be aware of what's going on in the world around them.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:35pm PT
When TRUMP Wins...

...this song will be number one with a bullet:
[Click to View YouTube Video]
dirtbag

climber
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:36pm PT
I don't like admitting that I may be wrong about anything, but the article by George Schultz, below, is causing me to pause in my support of Gary Johnson:

http://www.hoover.org/research/danger-empty-threats?utm_source=hdr&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2016-10-12

While I find Johnson's "leave it alone" policy better than some of the disaster of the last 16 years, we realistically can't leave it alone and expect a better world.

While I still intend to vote for him, the article by Schultz is one more nail in my personal coffin of Trump. Restraint remains a foreign concept (so to speak) to him.

John

Frankly, if I was in your position--living in California--can't vote for trump--can't vote for Clinton--I'd probably vote for Johnson anyway, mainly to send a message to Republican Party leadership. He's not going to win so it really doesn't matter if he doesn't know what a leppo is anyway.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Oct 12, 2016 - 01:42pm PT
He's not going to win so it really doesn't matter if he doesn't know what a leppo is anyway.

I don't agree. There's still the popular vote to consider.

I want to see a landslide at this point to send a message loud and clear to the rest of world and to our own American soul.

....

The Republican Party is STILL largely anti-science. To pick on just one component in the mix. How is THAT not dumb?
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