Discussion Topic |
|
This thread has been locked |
Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2016 - 07:27pm PT
|
Not entirely....statistics can be simplistic to a fault. If you look at the stats for fatalities in climbing are you to assume that extreme alpinism and sport climbing are equivalent regarding risk? I think you are saying that statistics can be misused, i.e. used incorrectly to draw conclusions for a very different group of participants.
I agree.
I'm talking about statistics used correctly, or at least with some caution.
I believe the surveys I mentioned for Kjerag 1995-2005 and for US Skydiving in 2006 are fairly accurate for what they cover.
They are limited in their application to BASE at different locations and different styles (such as proximity flying).
|
|
donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2016 - 07:32pm PT
|
I agree Clint....we live in a world where statistics are use incorrectly or partially to prove a point. Also, some statistics are derived from incorrect assumptions.
|
|
couchmaster
climber
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2016 - 07:59pm PT
|
We all pays our money, we all takes our chances. I chose to reduce risk when I had the first kid. Flip Flop and many of you feel as I did. Some do some don't. For me, I set a goal that I would live till my youngest was 5. Laugh if you will, but my dad died when I was 18 months old and it's no small thing. So I figured - 5 and if I check out, c'est la vie. I only tried to do my best and think things though in advance. After my evaluation I gave up mountains and the snow and ice thing. This choice was made easier as I was then guiding as a fill in till some of Americas best climbers could get back from the Himalayas, after having kicked some ass and claimed some fame or whatever, get back and run their guiding service. 2 of the 3 owners died on the trip. (avy) Real good guys. Great climbers. 1986 I think.
This discourse on ST if Chris did the right thing or not is interesting but misguided I feel. He made his choice. His wife was fine with it. Who are we to tell him it was wrong? For some of us, it would have been horrendously stupid. But it was not our choice to make. It was his. We all know the odds are not forever in your favor for some of our outdoor recreation.
I passed that 5 year mark a bit ago. 3 weeks ago I was with my wife, daughter, brothers, mom and lots of other friends to watch my youngest son graduate from university. He's moved to another state now and I miss him. But I did my job as I defined it, and to me, that was important. It was important to him as well it turned out. We'll be heading to Toulemne next month, doing some easy father - son routes. God forbid that one of us takes a hit or a bad fall as I suspect that there will be 10 pages of argumentative discourse on Supertopo about what idiots we were. But we already know we're idiots, and we don't give a sh#t about your views. You can take what your life is and make it work for you: we have done that for us. Chris did the same. We can salute him for the man he was, and grieve for the child that didn't get to really know him and grow up with a dad: or the wife that will have some empty excruciatingly painful holes in her life. But we cannot make that choice or change his choice, as painful as it is. We just need to shut the f*#k up on his choices and worry about what each of us is doing for ourselves. This is freedom. Yes, it can hurt and hurt bad. We all pays our money, we all takes our chances. None of us gets out alive.
That we are missing another good man will be no less painful for my words. We all wish it could be otherwise. My very best to you all, and to Chris's family and friends.
|
|
Clint Cummins
Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2016 - 08:35pm PT
|
Moose,
I agree - some people will "self-select" into riskier activities, because they enjoy the thrills more.
And there is often a mix of high and low risk people in an activity.
To evaluate your risk if participating in BASE jumping (as a lower risk person),
a statistical survey would need to classify current participants in terms of their risk level, by some reasonable measure.
It might be in the type of object the person jumps from,
or the style of gear they use (wingsuit vs. normal).
Or it might be in their participation in other sports with elevated risk.
Then the survey tracks both the high and low risk people in terms of number of jumps, and counts fatalities, for the type of jump location you have in mind.
It might take awhile (years) to get fatalities in both groups, and even longer to see if there is a significant difference in their fatality rate.
Then you would use the fatality rate for the low risk people.
This is how it would work ideally.
In practice, it would take a lot of work and time to do such a study,
and no doubt many jumpers would refuse to participate, which could bias the results.
If you want to decide using already available statistics,
you could use the rate across all risk groups as an upper bound on the rate for the low risk group.
For example, if you want to jump at Kjerag, the overall rate (1995-2005) is .0004 , or .00008 (2003-2015 - see below),
so the low risk rate was not higher than .0004 or .00008 .
If that is acceptable to you, you could go ahead.
Of course, an important question would be
"As a self-identified low risk person, how would your decisions on the jump(s) differ from those of a high risk person?"
Here's a 2012 article which explores how (N=68) BASE jumpers differ from the general population in some personality characteristics:
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/254288190_Personality_Characteristics_of_BASE_Jumpers
They are significantly higher in "Sensation Seeking" or "Novelty Seeking",
and lower in "Harm Avoidance".
Seems to line up with your expectations.
I found a more recent version of the raw data for Kjerag - through 2015:
http://stavangerbase.com/about-us/statistics/
It does suggest the fatality rate per jump is dropping:
p = .00023 (1994 - 2015)
p = .00060 (1994 - 2002) pre-wingsuit (first wingsuit fatalities were in late 2002)
p = .00008 (2003 - 2015) wingsuit era
It also shows the jump numbers rounded to the nearest 50 through 2010,
which makes me wonder how those were constructed.
|
|
Daphne
Trad climber
Northern California
|
|
|
Jun 30, 2016 - 11:12pm PT
|
^^^ WOW, what a great video to illustrate this discussion.
"Fear is a super important thing and without fear you will die."
Jeb Corliss
|
|
deuce4
climber
Hobart, Australia
|
|
I don't think it is appropriate to judge people's intentions post mortem.
But I do think that in retrospect I was once engaged in very risky behavior and came very close the my "numbers up" many, many times.
My belief after these experiences were that my demise would have been mine and mine alone, my right, and that it was really only me that was being affected.
A succession of friends dying told me this was not true, and I began a multi-year process with clear intent.
One of the hardest and most challenging things I have ever had to do in my life so far was to transition from a lifestyle filled with calculated risk and adrenaline into a lifestyle that had a higher probability of survival. It was hell, filled with manic depressive times, flitting back and forth from the occasional risk to self-loathing about not getting out there and doing cool stuff.
Once I had kids though, there was no question for me--the choice was the right one ( for me). I am glad and fortunate that kids came after I had already gone through the agonizing withdrawal from adrenaline.
|
|
Heisenberg
Trad climber
RV, middle of Nowehere
|
|
Jim. I have the utmost respect for you and the passionate life you've lived.
We've sat around campfires the last 2 years talking about this. Also watched you climb.
IMHO.... You take an increased/unnecessary one by only placing 1 or 2 cams during a 120 foot pitch.
Your argument was that it was "safer" But essentially you're increasing the risk of death 10 fold. You have taken a sport(climbing) with some risk (like base) and now turned it into (free soloing)WS Proxy BASE. One cam 60 feet down on 120 feet is not going to stop you first, sadly the dirt will.
Did you ever look at statistics before you did an alpine climb? I'm going to say NO.
Risk Management / Assessment from one sport to another are very different. Certainly some correlate but in reality it takes something much different to step up to and off the edge.
I have a ton of respect for you Jim. You have a voice of reason and a curiosity
|
|
WyoRockMan
climber
Grizzlyville, WY
|
|
If you look at the stats for fatalities in climbing are you to assume that extreme alpinism and sport climbing are equivalent regarding risk?
Life insurance companies seem to make that assumption.
|
|
Todd Eastman
climber
Bellingham, WA
|
|
How about the matrix of skill, strength, and risk?
Activities require different ratios of skills and strength. Risk is tied to the possible failure to adequately use either or both.
Raw strength may limit entry into some activities more than others.
Skill, for other activities may be the primary tool that drives the show.
A high tolerance for risk can reduce the apparent need for developing either skill or strength as an individual progresses in an activity.
A low tolerance for risk can retard the development of strength and skills.
Moving balance depending on individuals, activities, and external factors...
... including social acceptance and pressures.
|
|
the Fet
climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
|
|
I looked for some statistics on free soloing but couldn't find anything.
I would GUESS it's roughly the same order of magnitude as risky as BASE jumping.
Of course even if we had the numbers that's just statistics, they are very different activities with different objective and subjective dangers. But it's interesting to compare and I think good to know. e.g. someone might be very comfortable with BASE but think free soloing is crazy, but when they realize the risk is similar it may give them a more objective way to look at their preferred activity.
I learned that SCUBA carries more risk than I thought it did and have decided to be more careful and refresh some of the self rescue techniques I haven't practiced in over a decade.
The statistics for skiing seem to show it's pretty safe, but I often ski in avalanche conditions (fresh snow, 35-50 degree slopes) so I know my risk is MUCH higher than an average skier and act accordingly.
|
|
pud
climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 1, 2016 - 02:17pm PT
|
This thread was started simply to get people thinking about the responsibilities of parenthood.
The children don't always have a voice in the decisions we make. Good decisions are good for everyone.
Raising children is harder than any sport, and more rewarding in many ways.
|
|
dikhed
climber
State of fugue and disbelief
|
|
I wish more people did a better job of raising the little carbon copies of themselves
|
|
BASE104
Social climber
An Oil Field
|
|
The original post was this:
The many children left behind pay way too much for their parent's need for this adventure.
Having children is a life long responsibility.
Don't want that? Don't have kids.
I'm sorry for steering this conversation towards risk. Personally, I would put BASE in the same conversation as generic soloing. Not as dangerous as doing hard mixed routes in Chamonix. That was the most dangerous thing that I've done.
OK. Look at Alex Lowe. He had three kids and died in an avalanche in the Himalaya.
John Bachar died soloing. He had a young son.
Allison Hargreaves died along with my friend Rob Slater on K2. She had two kids. After her death, the vermin swarmed out of the floorboards to judge her.
Hell, George Mallory died on Everest. He had kids. I could play this game all day long.
Are you going to judge them as well? How about we make a list of everyone who has kids and still does risky things.
If there is anything that I am trying to say here, it is that some people walk a path that others wouldn't even consider. That is their path, and nothing will stop them. Not spouses, not children, nothing.
I celebrate those people. Their focus on their path was absolute. It is easy to be a coward who judges others from the comfort of their chair.
Teddy Roosevelt used to talk about this. How others shower judgement and criticism at those who have chosen to live in the arena. Timid souls, I think he called them.
This is what disappoints me so much about some of you people. You like to judge others for the path that they chose to follow. I gave up BASE shortly after my son was born, but I know plenty of others who didn't under the same circumstance. I would never judge them or their decision. It wouldn't even occur to me.
We only live once, and if you live true to your path, then good for you, whatever it may be. It isn't my place to judge.
|
|
jsrj98
Trad climber
Nor Cal
|
|
BASE,
Thanks for the thoughtful post above. I have a question, and don't read anything into it-- but I'd be curious to know your thoughts.
Do you think the spouse and kids have a right to judge?
When I started climbing again after a long hiatus, and with two kids approaching college, I made sure my life insurance would cover me if I died in a climbing accident. Now that my youngest has just graduated, is the pressure off? My wife tells me she's worried that I'd leave her alone if something happened to me, but knows climbing makes me happy. I'm insanely safety conscious, but we all know how easy it is to make a simple mistake or fall prey to bad weather or maybe just plain bad luck.
I don't think my wife or kids would harshly judge me (thinking I died doing what I loved), but I accept (and have to live with) the fact that they might.
John
|
|
WBraun
climber
|
|
We only live once
Biggest stupidest mistake of gross materialism is the illusion that "We only live once".
"Life" never ever dies ......
|
|
pud
climber
Sportbikeville & Yucca brevifolia
|
|
|
Topic Author's Reply - Jul 1, 2016 - 05:12pm PT
|
If there is anything that I am trying to say here, it is that some people walk a path that others wouldn't even consider. That is their path, and nothing will stop them. Not spouses, not children, nothing.
So if I were to say you are describing very selfish people in this statement am I judging? or merely stating the obvious?
The fact that you consistently state that others don't "understand" a BASE jumper's rigging, technique, feeling, etc... and therefore cannot look at it and determine it to be a serious risk is simply your ego talking.
You ain't that special. Because you choose to jump off objects with a parachute doesn't make you courageous or a hero. It's just what you choose to do.
Entering corners at 140mph on two wheels is how I got my kicks for a long time. Whether you choose to do this or not, it doesn't make you more or less courageous.
It sounds like we both gave up some passions for the sake of our children. There is nothing cowardly about that.
|
|
yeahman
Mountain climber
Montana
|
|
Everybody talks about kids who lose parents. How come nobody ever talks about the parents who lose a kid to extreme sports? As a parent, I personally think it could be much more difficult to lose a kid to climbing (or anything else), than to be a kid who loses a parent. Which means that all those years I was climbing like crazy before I had kids and I thought I had no obligations, I was actually wrong. My parents must have been worried sick, but I was totally oblivious to that. Or to how it would have affected them if I died.
Brings to mind the David Roberts book where he has to tell the parents of his climbing partner who fell off whatever Alaskan mountain they were climbing, and the grief he describes as being so overwhelming it shocked him. Or Krakauer's "Into the Wild" where he interviews the parents of the kid who died and describes the deep grief that never goes away when a parent loses a child.
A child losing a parent will leave a void for sure, but the chance exists for somebody to step in and fill that void (ala Conrad Anker). But I think a parent losing a child brings the kind of grief that people never recover from. Nobody can step in to fill that void. Just something to think about.
|
|
dikhed
climber
State of fugue and disbelief
|
|
start a thread
|
|
jstan
climber
|
|
jsrj98: I don't think my wife or kids would harshly judge me (thinking I died doing what I loved), but I accept (and have to live with) the fact that they might.
Were I ever faced with this dilemma I would find something else I loved just as much. Many different things to do out there.
Being a male I find being solitary quite agreeable. But over the years I have learned women are different. Often they love having someone around just the same way others love climbing. It seems a conflict between two fundamentals.
A big problem. Negotiation is the only resolution apparent to me.
|
|
|
SuperTopo on the Web
|
Let us know!