hey climbski2 and fellow travelers... realistic or alarmist?

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High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Original Post - May 3, 2016 - 03:53pm PT
Curious, what say you?

[Click to View YouTube Video]

A William Perry production.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUuOskX3z7U


A Conversation with Juliette Kayyem
http://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/what-makes-us-safer

William Perry, Former Sec of Defense
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Perry
Vitaliy M.

Mountain climber
San Francisco
May 3, 2016 - 04:05pm PT
Yer gonna die
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 3, 2016 - 04:08pm PT
Thanks Vitaliy,

"In 2013, Perry founded the William J. Perry Project to seek to promote greater public awareness about nuclear weapons and engage more people in acting to mitigate the growing threat they pose to humanity. The Project is a nonprofit venture supported with funds raised from private individuals and is sponsored by the Nuclear Threat Initiative in Washington, DC."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Perry
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
May 3, 2016 - 04:14pm PT
Several things about this are unrealistic currently. Some of it realistic.

I would not call it particularly alarmist. A nuke in the wrong hands is one of the truly scary scenarios the world faces. several in the wrong hands gets scarier exponentially.

Not too realistic..Using an aircraft to ship the item. A weapons grade nuclear core requires massive shielding in order not to be instantly visible to radiation detectors. One could probably do this on a ship with a standard shipping container but I dont think on an aircraft it would be reasonable. Meh whatever..if one had a device and were very careful and a little lucky it could get into a major US city and be used.

A splinter group is unlikely to have funding and manpower/expertise needed especially a covert splinter group. Covert always cost much more money than overt. This is not a cheap program if overtly done.

A much more realistic possibility is a regime like N Korea overtly doing such a thing. course it is hard for them to sneeze without us knowing before it happens. Even Iran probably cannot do it right now.

The initial damage of such a device as described is possible but my guess is it's bit high for a ground detonation small nuke.. the reaction plausible but far from inevitable.

Real world right now?

The real danger is if we have a breakdown in international relations with those advanced and stable nations like China and Russia who are just as committed as we are to nonproliferation. With whom we have had critical cooperation in keeping such materials out of desperate groups hands.

Then all bets are off mid to long term.
Flip Flop

climber
Earth Planet, Universe
May 3, 2016 - 05:29pm PT
All Swiss nationals have nuclear fallout shelters.
Be afraid.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 4, 2016 - 02:31pm PT
"A weapons grade nuclear core requires massive shielding in order not to be instantly visible..."

Is this true?

"A splinter group is unlikely to have funding and manpower/expertise needed..."

Okay, climbski2, thanks for your feedback plus your assurances.

I should say I feel more aligned with William Perry.

Extra...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7LQjNvfPmo


Not a confidence-booster...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM-fzpD2GrA

"the five authorized nuclear weapons states still have 22,000 warheads in their combined stockpile and have shown a reluctance to disarm further."

"I do not have great confidence in the political forces in Washington today or in Moscow today recognizing and resolving the very serious issues that we face. And I think a large reason for that is because our populace as a whole does not understand it." -William Perry, 2016, @Google
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
May 4, 2016 - 02:34pm PT
Just wait til the Indians try and put one in one of their subs. Some years
back they leased a used Rooskie nuke sub but the Rooskies repoed it after
6 months because the Indians were not maintaining it properly and the
Rooskies were afraid it would meltdown.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
May 4, 2016 - 02:47pm PT
On a slightly unrelated subject, I never realized that Perry was the Michael and Barbara Berberian Professor Emeritus at Stanford until I read the Wikipedia article. Michael and Barbara are personal friends of mine, but I'm a Cal graduate, so I normally pay no attention to activities with the 'furds (as we call fans of the Junior University on the Peninsula).

Thanks for the reference. It's very cool to find that out.

John
Vitaliy M.

Mountain climber
San Francisco
May 4, 2016 - 03:17pm PT
to promote greater public awareness about nuclear weapons and engage more people in acting to mitigate the growing threat they pose to humanity.

I had a 20 minute conversation with a friend about the subject of military and the buttload of money governments around the world throw at it. FML. A HUGE MAJORITY of the people in the whole wide world want PEACE, having a job and being able to put a plate on the plate. Who out there with a HEALTHY MIND would want to start a nuclear war? It would screw the whole world. Humans also like to f*#k and have a load of aggression, which does not go away over a course of a few decades. If you look at the human history, we (humans) have been violent creatures for thousands of years. Duels were the way to solve an interpersonal communication problem about a 100 years ago, so it is not surprising there are a load of gang related homicides in the cities loaded with citizens living in poverty…What about the two world wars, about 80 million DEATHS right there. Mindblowing eh....ANYWAY, as my friend pointed out, being armed keeps you safe. BUT, I think cutting the number of nuclear weapons we and the other countries around the world have, would put much more into social programs, roads, education, climbing grants (jk) etc etc. I know the number has been cut down over the years, but there is much to improve here...I think all the leaders in the world can gather around a table and agree that WW3 is not a good idea, than come up to some solution to cut the money each economy blows into it. I have nothing against people who serve in the military, only respect, but wish people didn’t kill each other on the regular for a group of politician d#@&%ebags that decided to have a c*#k measuring contest.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
May 4, 2016 - 03:29pm PT
"A weapons grade nuclear core requires massive shielding in order not to be instantly visible..."

Is this true?

Long (classified) story , short.

Yes. Note the word RADIOactive. Then note international treaties that prohibit the use of certain frequencies for communication. Why?...one reason is listening for and tracking cores. How much concrete can your cellphone broadcast through? How much if the receiver is 1000 times more sensitive than a cell tower?


Vitaliy... I see no good way to argue with your points.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 4, 2016 - 03:38pm PT
To be clear, climbski2, you're saying these nuclear materials are putting out RADIOactivity specfically in these prohibited frequency ranges? and that's why they are prohibited? in order to detect them - the nuclear materials - in these ranges?
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
May 4, 2016 - 03:40pm PT
Absolutely, A very smart international cooperative effort.

Tom Frost was probably involved with putting an early version of a detector on Nanda Devi.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 4, 2016 - 03:41pm PT
Absolutely... -climbski2

So do you know of any of these example frequency ranges that are prohibited? that I might research?
WBraun

climber
May 4, 2016 - 03:45pm PT
Big nukes are so not even being considered anymore.

Small tactical nukes are in play everywhere now and all the rage.

Israel illegally launched Tactical nukes at Syria all while covered it up in the media.

The stupid lying US govt. and their corrupt media back stabs countries like
Iran which never even considered big Nukes to begin with all while the lying back stabbing Israel has tons of Nukes.

Stupid American believe all the garbage they are fed by their lying US govt thru their stupid media whores.

Americans are so brain washed and stupid now a days it's beyond insane.

Unbelievable stupid Americans now .....

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
May 4, 2016 - 03:46pm PT
Start below and keep digging.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITU_Radio_Regulations
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 4, 2016 - 03:47pm PT

I'm asking your help, if you don't mind.

What hertz ranges (the prohibited ones) detect RADIOactivity?




PS

Curious, climbski2, if you've ever had a nuclear physics course?



Unfortunately I've got to go now but this from William Perry's talk at google, link above, in closing comments...

"What do you know about nuclear weapons? And the answer is abysmal, abysmal ignorance. And along with the ignorance not much concern" -W Perry

Seems particularly apropos here today.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
May 4, 2016 - 03:53pm PT
No just basic physics. Ed H would be your guy. Been a long time since I researched this stuff and talked to the right people about some details.

Not sure what specific frequencies. But do know that the decay puts out specific frequencies of electromagnetic signal.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 4, 2016 - 03:56pm PT
But do know that the decay puts out specific frequencies of electromagnetic signal.

Please educate yourself.

you're saying these nuclear materials are putting out RADIOactivity specfically in these prohibited frequency ranges? and that's why they are prohibited? in order to detect them - the nuclear materials - in these ranges?

Absolutely... -climbski2

(Ed's our guy for the super advanced stuff. Your ignorance (EDIT: alright, too harsh... lack of understanding) resides square and center in high school level physics, nuclear RADIO activity chapters.)


RADIOactivity...
Not in the communication frequency ranges.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioactive_decay
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Particle_detector
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
May 4, 2016 - 04:05pm PT
whatever dude.. I did not come here to argue.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Topic Author's Reply - May 4, 2016 - 04:07pm PT
whatever dude.. I did not come here to argue.

I know, you came just to post (eg, assurances and trumpisms aka bs).
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