U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Feb 2, 2019 - 10:55pm PT
Hi Blah, we're actually pretty aligned in our thinking...

From your article shared

I’ve concluded that the best portfolio for the average investor isn’t some complicated trading strategy or a mix of high-cost actively managed mutual funds. No, it is actually a diversified mix of low-cost index funds. I especially like the three-fund portfolio.

This was the point of my last post. I am already invested in the Vanguard total market index and the total bond index at a 90 - 10% ratio, and I am looking to add a S&P500 index to it as well (which is sure enough mentioned in the article you posted).

The growth and value ETF are S&P500 ETF but if you look at the top holdings they are different.

Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF
Month-end 10 largest holdings
(33.10% of total net assets) as of 12/31/2018

1 Microsoft Corp.
2 Alphabet Inc.
3 Amazon.com Inc.
4 Facebook Inc.
5 Pfizer Inc.
6 Verizon Communications Inc.
7 Visa Inc.
8 Johnson & Johnson
9 Merck & Co. Inc.
10 Cisco Systems Inc.

Vanguard S&P 500 value ETF
Month-end 10 largest holdings
(25.80% of total net assets) as of 12/31/2018

1 Apple Inc.
2 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
3 UnitedHealth Group Inc.
4 Bank of America Corp.
5 Chevron Corp.
6 AT&T Inc.
7 Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
8 Wells Fargo & Co.
9 Johnson & Johnson
10 Walmart Inc.

Maybe I'm better off just sticking with a general S&P500 index fund??? But I liked the idea of splitting it between growth and value. Not so much to "beat the market" but it does offer a slight diversification from a S&P 500 fund (even though it's almost the same), and to be honest it will be fun in 30 years to compare the difference between the two.
Roger Brown

climber
Oceano, California
Feb 3, 2019 - 05:37am PT
We just got an offer from Wells Fargo in the mail yesterday for a $25,000, 11 month CD, at 2.6% for select customers. Available at any branch. Is that some kind of a signal? Have we been hacked? We have been making monthly 26 week treasury purchases lately. We have been getting 2.5+-% APR on the treasury purchases.
jbaker

Trad climber
Redwood City, CA
Feb 3, 2019 - 09:35am PT
Briham89 -

A few things to consider:

1) Set up automatic withdrawals for your additional investments above your IRA. Bump the amount whenever you get a raise. If the money goes straight into your savings, you'll have less temptation to spend it. This will also give you dollar cost averaging.

2) It is worth thinking about a robo-investment service such as Betterment, particularly if you aren't interested in putting a lot of thought into managing your money. The automatic rebalancing and tax harvesting can cover the modest management fee. Their investment approach is very much like Bogel's.

3) Real estate can be great if you are in the right market at the right time, but there are risks. Parts of the LA market took huge hits after the Northridge earthquake (I was near the epicenter) and took close to 10 years to recover. My house in the Bay Area burned down - It almost sunk me financially, but the market has been so crazy that the smoking hole in the ground appreciated a lot while I was rebuilding. Given where you are living and where the market is at, I'd save your money and wait for a better market cycle, or look at passive real estate investment in a market that is more attractive.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 12, 2019 - 05:02pm PT
Here's a little pesimistic news from Vanguard. Please bear in mind that Vanguard is quite conservative in their market guidance.

The stock market won't keep returning the kinds of yearly gains investors have gotten used to since the financial crisis bottom in 2009, Vanguard chief investment officer Greg Davis said.

"If we look forward for the next 10 years, our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median annualized return," he told CNBC on Monday. "Five years ago, we'd have been somewhere in around 8 percent."

"Our expectations have clearly come down," Davis added. The historical average annualized return for the stock market, accounting for inflation, is about 7 percent.
john hansen

climber
Feb 14, 2019 - 10:34pm PT
The Dow Jones has gone up 53 % in the last 3 years.

I think I will keep hanging round.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 15, 2019 - 08:15am PT
How much is enough?

It depends upon whether yer in the buffet line or at yer tax man’s.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 15, 2019 - 10:59am PT
Heard a gud one on the local news radio station yesterday:

“Invest [sic] with Shyster Investments - 10-12% GUARANTEED with NO MARKET RISK!”

Why only 10-12%?
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 22, 2019 - 11:00am PT
I'm bumping this see what the wizened investors of The Taco think about the current market. I keep seeing reports from large institutions, forecasting a significant decline.

How 'bout it folks.

Time to liquidate and put it all in bitcoin?
Splater

climber
Grey Matter
Feb 22, 2019 - 01:17pm PT
"If we look forward for the next 10 years, our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median annualized return," he told CNBC on Monday. "Five years ago, we'd have been somewhere in around 8 percent."
"Our expectations have clearly come down," Davis added. The historical average annualized return for the stock market, accounting for inflation, is about 7 percent.


Wait, are you saying the geniuses at all the public employee union pensions in California may "have a flaw" in their propaganda?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 25, 2019 - 10:56am PT
Actually, yer weak troll aside, The Economist posited some semi-convincing arguments for
going long gold. I never thought I would read that there. The best argument is that there
are enough people who believe in it to give it substance. And with gold you actually
own something.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 25, 2019 - 11:30am PT
I know you weren’t trolling about gold, but if you bought gold 10 years ago you haven’t made squat.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Feb 25, 2019 - 12:34pm PT
More upside to silver.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Feb 26, 2019 - 07:00pm PT
Globex futures stopped trading over two hours ago. Still down. Creepy.

Technical issues at CME Group (CME - Get Report) halted trades late Tuesday into Wednesday in some global financial instruments, including U.S. Treasury futures and the S&P 500 futures.

The outage affected many markets including metals, grains, crude oil and natural gas. According to data from Bloomberg, no trades were executed in U.S. stock-index futures since early Wednesday in Asia.

CME acknowledged that "due to technical issues, all CME Globex markets have been halted." An announcement on the group's website about 9 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday read: CME Group has identified the technical issue and is working to resolve it. When the iLink gateways are restarted they will be in the normal primary/backup configuration. We will publish the pre-open and opening times shortly."
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Feb 26, 2019 - 08:23pm PT
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/clarida20190222a.htm

They're admitting they can't be propping this fake worthless bubble with existing controls anymore...going to get creative, "negative rates", caps on bond yields, the Fed buying stocks, ahaha. And there's no crash yet, even. Do they have something that will work in actual recession/crash? Dog and pony show. Zero trust that DC clowns and frauds will do anything other than bailing out their cronies, on a long term. They got this McFake market running good since the War... propping it up, smoke and mirrors, borrowing, but big game changers ahead pretty sure, went too far.
LOL the fake junk food eater (Buffett) lost on Kraft-Heinz and is now whining about GAAP rules...probably waiting for bailout. How come no insider info this time??
Buffett, time to find the most evil corp, it'll be the sure winner.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 26, 2019 - 08:47pm PT
Thanks for the link - a very good article best digested in segments. I got as far as the ‘makeup strategies’. Thought provoking stuff although I realize the pain you Bolshies are in waiting for the hoped for downturn precludes substantive thought.
formerclimber

Boulder climber
CA
Feb 26, 2019 - 08:49pm PT
Yeah, yeah I have a big short open every day...I hope you read it all, panic and sell...sure.
ms55401

Trad climber
minneapolis, mn
Feb 27, 2019 - 08:19am PT
What historical period would that be?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 27, 2019 - 08:27am PT
And what stock market?
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 27, 2019 - 09:47am PT
Ah! Former climber is back with us, earning her Russian Rubles by spewing downer mis-information.

As Reilly mentions:

I realize the pain you Bolshies are in waiting for the hoped for downturn precludes substantive thought.


Maybe a name change from Former Climber to BOB (Bitter Old Bolshivik) would work better?

I do want to mention that in formerclimber's first ST thread:

Should I return to Russia/is America gone bad beyond hope?

She mentions she lives in CA, but is from Russia. After her blizzard of negativity got rolling, two other Russians had this to say about her being a paid Russian Troller.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 27, 2019 - 09:52am PT
Fritzi, you do her too much credit by calling her spewing ‘mis-information’. It is blather.

But that Fed review link is well worth the time. Pretty sure she didn’t understand a word of it,
if she even read it.
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