U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

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apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Oct 26, 2018 - 02:52pm PT
‘Libtard False Flag Operation’

Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 26, 2018 - 03:20pm PT
Apogee! I have a great idea. Why don't you start a new political thread with your previous post, since this is not a political thread. I swear I'm jonesing to post on a political thread, which this isn't.

I started this thread in August 2015, just after a very-short correction in the main U.S. stock indexes. I had hopes of knowledgeable investors sharing some good advice on long-term investing methods.

That certainly has happened. I appreciate some are offended by success stories here, since it not the Super-Topo way to brag, except for climbing stories, adventures, large trout, remodels, lifestyle, pets, girlfriends & wives, your teams, your political candidates, & your Christian beliefs.

As the apparent chief recent offender, I humbly apologize to those offended & I'll give you a schadenfreude moment about this offensive photo of Heidi in Business class on our flight to Europe in September.


Heidi is frowning, since our flight was due to depart for Munich at 6:15 PM & it was delayed to 12:30 A.M. due to thunderstorms. We had decided we needed to go to sleep right after take-off, since the next day was going to be "hell-day," with our friends, who were going to meet us in Munich, already off to Italy, & us with missed train connections to Italy. So, we missed fine wines & International Business class service & food, but did sleep OK, thanks to Ambien.

And we did have "Hell-afternoon" in Munich, but made it to an OK, but expensive hotel, in the seedy downtown central train station district, & departed to our wonderful Italian vacation early the next morning.
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 26, 2018 - 03:43pm PT
Well, I worked for and knew reasonably well, a guy who was on the Forbes list.

I also knew these guys.

I don't think the money made them happy, but they all kinda liked the games.

Jon Beck

Trad climber
Oceanside
Oct 26, 2018 - 04:07pm PT
Will it affect the stock market?

Trump backers who have suggested the bombs are a liberal hoax:

Ann Coulter
Rush Limbaugh
Michael Savage
James Woods
Mike Flynn Jr.
Frank Gaffney
Kurt Schlichter
Candace Owens
David Horowitz
John Cardillo
Laura Loomer
Jacob Wohl
Chadwick Moore
John Lott

sorry Fritz, I could not resist :)
zBrown

Ice climber
Oct 26, 2018 - 04:38pm PT
Any those folks on the Forbes list?
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 26, 2018 - 06:38pm PT
‘Libtard False Flag Operation’
Oh, please, apogee, of course it was a Democratic conspiracy. Debbie Wasserman Schultz was the return address on all the bombs.

Duh!
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 26, 2018 - 07:06pm PT
xcon? If I understand your post?

how can you stand the dialogue it takes to stay in the business?

Is it about the stock market & the players in it, all being corrupt?

Indeed. There is a lot of corruption, especially at the highest levels with the "BIG" investment banking companies.

I, more or less, trust my favorite mutual fund manager Vanguard & although I do appreciate the "BIG" investment bankers will do all they can to manipulate the stock market, it remains, mostly, too big, for them to control.

As a bottom-feeder, I have enjoyed the scraps I pick up after the "BIG" money has their way.

Speaking of the current stock market correction, or near correction.

Here's some thoughts from the folks at Motley Fool.

1. Stock market corrections happen often

The first thing you should know is that stock market corrections happen -- and fairly often. The U.S. economy naturally peaks and troughs over time, and in response the stock market will also have its peaks and troughs.
According to investment firm Deutsche Bank, the stock market, on average, has a correction every 357 days, or about once a year.

Corrections have generally been quite infrequent since the Great Recession. While many investors, especially those new to stock investing simply aren't used to experiencing swings like these, corrections are an inevitable part of stock ownership, and there's nothing you can do as an individual investor to stop a correction from occurring.

2. Stock market corrections rarely last long
In a broader context, while a stock market correction is an inevitable part of stock ownership, corrections last for a shorter period of time than bull markets.

Based on research conducted on the Dow between 1945 and 2013, John Prestbo at MarketWatch determined that the average correction (which worked out to 13.3%) lasted a mere 71.6 trading days, or about 14 calendar weeks.

3. We can't predict what will cause a stock market correction
Stock market corrections may be inevitable, but one thing they aren't is predictable.

Stock market corrections could come about within any time frame (every few months or after multiple years), and they can be caused by a variety of issues. For instance, we now know the impetus for the Great Recession was the bursting of the housing bubble caused by an implosion of subprime mortgages. But, how many people were echoing that subprime was a problem in 2006 or 2007? The answer is very few people were. Predicting the root cause of the next correction on a regular basis just isn't possible.

4. Stock market corrections only matter if you're a short-term trader
Another important point you should realize is that stock market
corrections really aren't an issue if you remain focused on the long term with retirement as your goal. The only people who should be worried when corrections roll around are those who've geared their trading around the short term, or those who've heavily leveraged their account with the use of margin.

Traders using margin could see their losses magnified in a downturn (just as their gains were pumped up during the bull market), while active traders and day-traders could see their losses and trading costs build during a correction. Maintaining a long-term view has been the smartest way to invest in stocks throughout history – and it also happens to be a recipe for a good night's sleep.

5. They're a great time to buy high-quality stocks at a bargain
For the long-term investor, a stock market correction is often a great time to pick up high-quality companies at an attractive valuation. While trying to time a market bottom is generally a bad idea, a market correction can be a great time to add stocks to your portfolio that could make excellent long-term investments, but that previously seemed a bit too expensive.

6. They're also a good reminder to reassess what you own
Finally, a stock market correction is a good reminder for long-term investors to reassess their holdings.

As noted above, a dip in stocks isn't necessarily a bad thing as it could give you the opportunity to buy or add to your stock in high-quality companies, but it's important that you reassess your holdings to ensure that the thesis of your purchase remains intact. Ask yourself one simple question with each stock in your portfolio: Is the reason I bought this stock still valid today? If the answer is "yes," then no action is required, other than perhaps adding to your position. If your thesis is no longer intact, then it may be time to consider selling your position.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/6-things-you-should-know-about-a-stock-market-correction/ar-BBITsS3
briham89

Big Wall climber
santa cruz, ca
Oct 26, 2018 - 11:06pm PT
Thanks Fritz. These certainly do create buying opportunities!
john hansen

climber
Oct 27, 2018 - 03:39pm PT
When Fritz made the first post on this thread on Aug 28 2015 the Dow was at 16535. I think it had dropped because of a government shutdown.


https://www.orbex.com/blog/en/2015/08/dow-jones-2015-08-28


i'm gumby dammit

Sport climber
da ow
Oct 29, 2018 - 12:43pm PT
18 min to go. Will the nasdaq also close down for the year? Looks like it's making a run for it.

edit-apparently all I had to do was mention that and everything bounced back a full %point in the last 15 minutes.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 30, 2018 - 06:09am PT
The rule had been initiated under President Barack Obama, but the Trump administration put a stop to it.

That's a lie.

The courts vacated the fiduciary rule. Trump had nothing to do with its removal.
Gary

Social climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
Oct 30, 2018 - 07:09am PT
The courts vacated the fiduciary rule. Trump had nothing to do with its removal.

What steps has the administration taken to replace the Dept. of Labor's fiduciary rule?

From that commie website Marketwatch:
Financial advisers saw this coming, especially after the Trump administration delayed the rule’s implementation, and though some say they are disappointed by the turn of events, they seem hopeful that enough word has gotten out that not all financial advice is good advice.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-fiduciary-rule-dead-or-alive-what-its-fate-means-to-you-2018-03-16
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 30, 2018 - 07:11am PT
From that noted left-wing magazine, Forbes on the subject:

That’s when the Department of Labor (DOL) Rule, which would require all financial advisors to act in their clients' best interests regarding retirement accounts met its demise when the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals confirmed its decision to vacate the rule. The decision came after the full implementation of the rule was stalled following efforts by the Trump administration to investigate its effects on business.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Oct 30, 2018 - 07:27am PT
xCon

Social climber
909

Oct 30, 2018 - 06:38am PT
honest injun?

say ed,
are the jews keeping you down?

Wow! Really?

You're gonna run with that antisemitic hate-spray?
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 30, 2018 - 09:41am PT
xCon, I would think you’d be all about rich white folk being fleeced by front-loaded high fee ‘deals’!
ontheedgeandscaredtodeath

Social climber
Wilds of New Mexico
Oct 30, 2018 - 10:12am PT
I don't know too much about the fiduciary rule, but do know that a fiduciary relationship is quite significant. I'm not sure how it would have applied to index funds, retirement funds, etc., and maybe that's the problem the court had. Like most things, I'm sure it's far more complex than what appears in the press and in our thread here.

I do know that if I were actually paying a human to provide me financial advice (as opposed to who or what gets the commission/fees on my 401K or brokerage account) I would insist on establishing a fiduciary relationship.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Oct 31, 2018 - 05:44pm PT
Moosie, to reprise yer question whether I have read any books on economics let me first say that you’ve got it wrong: the best defense is not a strong offense. But to use yer tactic on you may I offer to send you a rough draft of my analysis of the European Central Bank’s Smets-Wouters DSGE Model?

My current book is Benoit Mandelbrot’s seminal work The (Mis)Behavior Of Markets - A Fractal View of Financial Turbulence in which fractal geometry highlights the overlooked work of de Fermat, Gauss, and Bachelier in re-examining how risk is quantified.
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Oct 31, 2018 - 07:25pm PT
I read a number of articles today about where the U.S. stock markets might be headed for the remainder of 2018.

They are likely headed higher, but if you don't feel lucky, I suggest you just stay invested in low-fee mutual funds that track the S&P 500.

If you feel a little bit luckier, Vanguard's Healthcare Fund has a record of wonderful returns in up markets.

From U.S. News & World Report. https://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/health/vanguard-health-care-fund/vghcx

About VGHCX

The Vanguard Health Care Fund falls within Morningstar’s health category. Funds in this category invest in stocks in the health and medical fields. This includes pharmaceutical companies, HMOs and medical device makers, among a host of others.

Morningstar says the fund is a "proven, less risky approach in an increasingly volatile sector.” The fund offers a value-leaning approach, low fees and an experienced management team.

The fund offers exposure to both domestic and foreign stocks within this category.

As of October 17, 2018, the fund has assets totaling almost $50.35 billion invested in 100 different holdings.

The fund places in the 73rd percentile of its Morningstar category for the trailing 12 months, the 43rd percentile for the trailing three years, the 46th percentile for the trailing five years and the 51st percentile for the trailing 10 years as of late October 2017. A category placement in the first percentile is the best, while a placement in the 100th percentile the is worst.

The fund’s expense ratio is 0.37 percent, which is classified as low for funds in this category by Morningstar. The fund requires a minimum initial purchase of $3,000. The Admiral share class version of the fund offers an expense ratio of 0.32 percent, but requires a $50,000 minimum initial investment.

The fund’s risk compared to that of other funds in its Morningstar peer group is considered low for the trailing three-, five- and 10-year periods. The fund’s level of return is average for the trailing three-, five- and 10-year periods.

The fund has returned 14.52 percent over the past year, 10.44 percent over the past three years, 14.74 percent over the past five years and 14.41 percent over the past decade.

The fund launched in May 1984. Parent company Vanguard is the largest mutual fund provider in the U.S. and offers a wide array of mutual funds and ETFs. Vanguard’s trademark is low-cost index products, but the firm also offers many actively managed funds. The company's low-cost approach has led to significant inflows of assets into its funds in recent years.

Note! The gains shown for the last year, 3 years, 5 years, & decade are average yearly gains. That likely beats your portfolio in the long-run.
EdwardT

Trad climber
Retired
Nov 1, 2018 - 04:48am PT
That explains the bounce off Monday's low.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Nov 6, 2018 - 02:23pm PT
You want to see a low?

If there is a blue wave at the polls you'll see one.
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