U.S. Stock market "CORRECTION!!" Why am I not "too-skeered"

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
Post a Reply
Messages 121 - 140 of total 173 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 31, 2017 - 11:53am PT
I like that bit of wisdom, Moose, "buy at the dip". That's what I'm holding out and waiting for. Waiting to ponce! Last time, I bought a repossessed race car in a warehouse in Florida for $9Gs. Who knows what goodies and toys are going to be littering the landscape when the next big dip comes down? Maybe a condo in Palo Alto? Hope so!
unlocked gait

Gym climber
the range
Dec 31, 2017 - 12:15pm PT
my emotional detachment from money
has proven itself the greatest
stride in my maturity as a human.

i don't deny it. i don't run from it.
but i also, don't fear it.

and i'm wealthy beyond measure.
so much so that my personal
monetary wealth flows
laterally to those whom
suffer real shortage.
Credit: unlocked gait
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 31, 2017 - 01:55pm PT
It's funny though how all these climbers were so anti-ego and anti-materialistic in the 60s and 70s and now they're all bots goose-stepping to the seductive tune of security linked to the rise and fall of the stock market. I think it's because you can no longer count on getting an easy, predictable job with all kinds of benes and a retirement package like a white WWII daddy with the GI Bill and FHA home loans. No more super low tuition and 0% interest student loans either. Therefore, you have to be real cautious and hold on like smug little SOB.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Dec 31, 2017 - 02:21pm PT
Bruce, how do we know when the ‘dip’ is dippest?
Malemute

Ice climber
great white north
Dec 31, 2017 - 02:27pm PT
^ ask Doctor Emmett Brown
Fritz

Social climber
Choss Creek, ID
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2017 - 02:41pm PT
Wait for the dip!

Damn!

Missed it again!

I last caught a dip, when we bought some Caterpillar stock in Feb. 2009.

Damn! That felt "GUD!"

And while "market-timers" were waiting for just the right dip, those of us staying fully invested, were sleeping fairly easily at night.
Jim Clipper

climber
from: forests to tree farms
Dec 31, 2017 - 11:00pm PT
Unlocked gait, do you work in south lake tahoe?
Bruce Morris

Trad climber
Soulsbyville, California
Dec 31, 2017 - 11:06pm PT
Bruce, how do we know when the ‘dip’ is dippest?

There's always a first dip and just when everybody thinks the worst is over, it takes a real nose dive and wipes 'em out for good. Sort of like the "two trauma process" in the development of irreversible, catastrophic schizophrenia. That's the golden moment to pounce, pick up some nice abandoned toys and move into the market again.

Nobody gets it right unless blind lady luck is on their side.
moosedrool

climber
Andrzej Citkowicz far away from Poland
Jan 2, 2018 - 07:34pm PT
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1

"In 2007, Warren Buffett entered a million-dollar bet with the fund manager Protégé Partners that the S&P 500 would beat a basket of hedge funds over the next decade.

His S&P 500 index fund compounded a 7.1% annual gain over 10 years, beating an average increase of 2.2% by the basket of funds selected by Protégé Partners.

Buffett's prize money will go to Girls Inc. of Omaha, Nebraska.

Buffett has taken issue with hedge funds' high fees and their promise of outperforming the market."

Moose
Mungeclimber

Trad climber
Nothing creative to say
Jan 2, 2018 - 09:55pm PT
Mc'Weege is back!
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Jan 3, 2018 - 10:33am PT
http://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-wins-million-dollar-bet-against-hedge-funds-2018-1

"In 2007, Warren Buffett entered a million-dollar bet with the fund manager Protégé Partners that the S&P 500 would beat a basket of hedge funds over the next decade.

His S&P 500 index fund compounded a 7.1% annual gain over 10 years, beating an average increase of 2.2% by the basket of funds selected by Protégé Partners.

Buffett's prize money will go to Girls Inc. of Omaha, Nebraska.

Buffett has taken issue with hedge funds' high fees and their promise of outperforming the market."

business insider.com
business insider.com
Credit: Lorenzo

Screw the S&P. What I want is a piece of Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has outperformed the S&P by a factor of about 1,000.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 10:58am PT
Screw the S&P. What I want is a piece of Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway, which has outperformed the S&P by a factor of about 1,000.

What you wanted was Berkshire Hathaway in the distant past. Returns have been very comparable to S&P for many years now. Obviously they were much higher a long time ago, but do you think that past performance will repeat? Look at Buffet's recent bets--not very impressive.


Buffet seems to enjoy his celebrity and being an "oracle,"--I suppose I'd listen to his advice to invest in index funds and not try to pick a hot stock picker (which Buffet hasn't been for a long time).

NutAgain!

Trad climber
South Pasadena, CA
Jan 3, 2018 - 11:19am PT
"Buying on the dip" works if you can predict the future.

Otherwise, a strategy that effectively achieves that end result is called Dollar Cost Averaging.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Portland Oregon
Jan 3, 2018 - 11:31am PT
What you wanted was Berkshire Hathaway in the distant past.

The recent past would do.

The five previous years returned 11.5%
The ten most recent years returned 9.8%


Both substantially better than either side of the bet mentioned.
Robert L

climber
Jan 3, 2018 - 11:32am PT
Bruce, how do we know when the ‘dip’ is dippest?

When there's a stall in the trading of contracts between banks, coupled with banks being overdue in getting money to promised borrowers, and government staff being forced into some kind of indefinite furlough enmasse due to no money to pay them.
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 12:20pm PT
The recent past would do.

The five previous years returned 11.5%
The ten most recent years returned 9.8%


Both substantially better than either side of the bet mentioned.

I'm sorry but you seem somewhat ill-informed on this topic.
S&P 500 return for 5 years is 15.8%, 10 years 8.5%. See https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0540&FundIntExt=INT&ps_disable_redirect=true

So, assuming your numbers are right, the 10 year Berkshire returns are somewhat better, and the 5 year returns are significantly worth.

The somewhat better 10 year returns are certainly not a game changer--and are right where an actively managed fund that's slightly beat the 500 would be.
For example, I was lucky enough to guess that Vanguard's Primecap fund would do well and invested in years ago (more than 10 years). It's 10 year return is 11.1%, nearly identical to your vaunted Berkshire.

It should be clear from looking at the graph you posted that Berkshire absolutely killed it for a long time, but that time has long passed, and it's recent returns have been comparable to market. Maybe somewhat better, but apparently significantly worse over the medium term (5 years).
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Jan 3, 2018 - 03:33pm PT
Was pissed I missed out on Apple bitd, so last week when it dipped because of the low battery broo ha ha I was a buyer for ten round lots @ $170.

Its already up by thousands, but I'm sitting on it (day traders are parasites anyway).


Just gotta sack up and go for it. At least I can survive the losers, its not like free soloing,....
blahblah

Gym climber
Boulder
Jan 3, 2018 - 04:01pm PT
Was pissed I missed out on Apple bitd, so last week when it dipped because of the low battery broo ha ha I was a buyer for ten round lots @ $170.

Its already up by thousands, but I'm sitting on it (day traders are parasites anyway).

Apple is at 172 now.
I'm not sure exactly when you bought, but it appears that Apple is up significantly less than the market as a whole (say S&P 500) in the last week or so.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 3, 2018 - 04:45pm PT
At least TV didn’t buy Tesla - down 2% today on news of further production problems. They’ve burned theough over 2 Billion in cash the past two quarters and are said to only have enough cash to last through the first quarter!
Moosie, SELL NOW!

If I was a betting man I would short Apple. The iPhone X isn’t selling and they don’t have anything else earthshaking in the pipeline.
moosedrool

climber
Andrzej Citkowicz far away from Poland
Jan 3, 2018 - 05:33pm PT
I like gambling, Reilly. Not high roller, though.

Moose
Messages 121 - 140 of total 173 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
Post a Reply
 
Our Guidebooks
Check 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks


Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Review Categories
Recent Route Beta
Recent Gear Reviews