Market Turbulence Looms as Greek Referendum Threatens Calm

Search
Go

Discussion Topic

Return to Forum List
This thread has been locked
Messages 61 - 80 of total 398 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
clinker

Trad climber
Santa Cruz, California
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:48am PT


As the penultimate paragraph makes plain, it's ultimately all about the banks. It always is. Nothing against the banks, but it sure would be nice if a few big ones would be allowed to fail based on their exposure to Greek debt. Not only would failure ultimately be healthy for the banking system, but for a few implosions serving as a reminder that "investment" in government debt isn't a one-way street, this failure would be very grand for the global economy.



Blakey

Trad climber
Sierra Vista
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:59am PT
I had a week cragging in Greece, just North of Athens about two months ago.

From what I saw there's no shortage of money in Greece, lots of new villas, new cars on the roads and in the showrooms, and far more small, medium and large businesses active than closed.

The problem with the money in Greece is that the government don't have it. Tax avoidance has been rampant and culturally endemic. They should never have adopted the Euro, having cooked the books to meet the criteria, and the Eurozone (must have) turned a blind eye to the fact.

It's all coming home to roost now...... How the financial ripples work themselves out in Europe will be interesting to see, as will the results of the referendum.

Steve
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:27am PT
Also, there's the economy and then there's the quality of life. Greece has beaches and sunshine that fog and rain bound northern Europe will never have. They also have a laid back and healthy lifestyle. Think low stress and Mediterranean diet. They receive remittances from the many Greeks who work overseas and pay for a large portion of those new villas and cars one sees. They have immense pride in their intellectual and cultural past and they are surrounded by beautiful archaeological remains everywhere to remind them. The cheaper their currency, the more tourists will flock there.The Greeks have faced hardship and authoritarian overlords before and the Germans don't begin to compare to the Turks. Whatever happens, the Greeks will survive.
HermitMaster

Social climber
my abode
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:34am PT
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:50am PT
businesses never just run out of cash. Ever.

Huh? That article was pretty good until that point. Need I cite bankruptcy filing numbers?
In his next breath he avers the virtues of allowing some banks to fail. What are they going to
fail over if it isn't a lack of cash to meet obligations? Why are the Greek banks limiting with-
drawals to 60 samolians? Just to be mean?
Blakey

Trad climber
Sierra Vista
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:53am PT
Jan,

Surrounded by cultural remains.........

I was incredibly surprised by the lack of anything ancient in the part of Greece I was in (Marathon and Athens).

I'm well travelled in Europe and I can't think of a major city that doesn't have it's history laid out before you, from Roman times to now. In Athens there was the Parthenon site, and some adjacent columns, Everything else seemed to have been swallowed by concrete. (The museum was very good though!)

I presume it's different elsewhere? but the absence of visible history in Athens was very, very odd.

Anywhere South of Lyon and Frankfurt is 'hot' by our standard, the Greeks don't have a monopoly on the sun. Though I grant you they may soon be in a position to offer extremely cheep holidays.

Ex pat Greeks probably do send money home, but I doubt those left behind use that to purchase villas and cars. It has been suggested that many families have deliberately locked their funds into property and assets rather than have their savings evaporate in a bank.

The daughter of a friend is married to a Greek, they run a business on one of the islands, but are looking to get out and come to the UK. I suspect many more will leave as the situation is going to do nothing but get worse.

Steve

fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jun 30, 2015 - 08:02am PT
It's not a "market" on wall street if you're not in the club. And it's unlikely if you're reading this that you're in that club.

So enjoy the Casino at your own peril....

But don't confuse the true fundamental economic potential of this country with that manipulated Casino.

I'd rather be here during the next fiat currency collapse than Greece.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 30, 2015 - 08:19am PT
Blakey-

If you think anything south of Frankfurt is "hot", you're definitely a far northern European ! Well do I remember fog not more than 100 feet off the ground for months on end in Germany, south of Frankfurt. The official statistics are one day of sunshine per month from the first of November until the first of May in northern Europe, all the way south to the Alps. I too have lived all over Europe, the worst being winters in Yorkshire with 6 hours of daylight and ground fog so thick, the street lights were on 24 hours a day. I'll take the weather in Greece any day.

As for not being able to see monuments in Greece, I'm amazed. I spent a month in Athens visiting archaeological ruins every day. Then I spent another two weeks touring the Peloponese with more of the same. Then another two weeks in Crete, one of them camped out just outside of Knosos. Greece has always been a poor country with no natural resources so the monuments are not on the scale of Rome, but they are exquisite.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 09:13am PT
fear, I'm not in the 'club', nor do I indulge in casinos, be they in Vegas or Wall St. You should
do a little reading, preferably something other than The Daily Worker. It is true that there are
a lot of risky investments, to wit, VIX futures and options which, to the casual observer, would
appear to be purely speculative. However, I guarantee that you will see a substantial return
should you choose to smell the roses and send some money to Vanguard or Fidelity. If you
want some quick money* here's my current pick - Statoil - the Norwegian oil company, is very
undervalued at $17.77. In addition they are paying a 5.5% dividend! That is like free money!

yer welcome,
Simon Legree

*'quick' being 9-12 months, minimum.
jstan

climber
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 30, 2015 - 09:47am PT

Impacts, again, are in the 2% to 3% range. Provided nothing else slips.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-29/u-s-banks-fall-as-greek-talks-fail-capital-controls-enacted

U.S. Banks Decline on Greek Talks Failure, Capital Controls
by Dakin Campbell
June 29, 2015 — 6:46 AM PDT Updated on June 29, 2015 — 11:37 AM PDT


Tsipras Asks European Union for a New Bailout Program

Greece Staggers Into Economic Unknown With Bailout Expiring

Greece Can Stay in Euro Even With ‘No’ Vote, Schaeuble Tells Lawmakers

Fear and Frustration: Life Under Capital Controls

Shares of the biggest U.S. banks fell, led by a 2.7 percent decline in Morgan Stanley, after talks to provide Greece with additional bailout aid failed and the Greek government imposed capital controls.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Financials Index slid as much as 1.9 percent, the biggest decline in more than three months. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets, dropped 2 percent and No. 2 Bank of America Corp. slid 2.5 percent.
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras called for a July 5 referendum on whether Greece should accept additional austerity demands from the country’s creditors, and French President Francois Hollande said the results would determine Greece’s future membership in the 19-nation euro region.

Greek banks were closed on Monday and the government imposed capital controls to avert a collapse of the nation’s financial system. Greek stocks and bonds tumbled, and Europe’s Stoxx 600 Banks Index fell 4 percent. Lenders in Italy, Portugal and Spain posted the biggest drops.

JPMorgan, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America and Morgan Stanley have reduced their collective exposure to Greek sovereign, corporate and financial-institutions debt to less than $2 billion from about $3.75 billion in mid-2012, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Citigroup’s Total
Citigroup has exposure to Greek borrowers, including loans, derivatives and securitized products, of about $1.3 billion, as well as third-party assets and liabilities in its Greek branch of approximately $44 million and $481 million, respectively, according to a first-quarter regulatory filing by the New York-based company.
Jamie Forese, head of Citigroup’s institutional clients group, said at an investor conference this month that the bank has reduced its exposure to Greece as much as it can while still serving its clients. The firm has also balanced its assets and liabilities to guard against a departure from the currency union, he said.
“We have been planning for a variety of scenarios and managing our Greek that it sold its Greek retail operation in 2014.

Bank of America, based in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in its first-quarter filing that its net exposure to Greece was $386 million.
Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s total credit exposure to Greece was $180 million, mostly with sovereign counterparties. Market exposure as of March was negative $34 million, the company said in its first-quarter filing. The totals were down from $1 billion in credit exposure and $54 million in market risks as of December, Goldman Sachs said.

“You’d have to assume that the risk is much more contained given people have had years to focus on this,” Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz said in April.

William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Board of New York, said developments in Greece are a “huge wild card” that some investors are underestimating.
“If this goes badly, the market reaction may be bigger than what we realize,” Dudley said in an interview with the Financial Times published Sunday.
couchmaster

climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 09:52am PT


It seems to me that there are better stocks if you you are looking to be in the oil space. Why these guys Reilly? A quick check showed that they were upside down on their cash flow for 2014 and their payable/recieveable ratio looks upsidedown. What that means is that dividend might not be there sooner as opposed to later. Of the 4 analysts who have looked at it, they don't appear overly excited either.

Can you share why you think they are poised for a rebound?

"It is true that there are a lot of risky investments, to wit, VIX futures and options which, to the casual observer, would appear to be purely speculative. However, I guarantee that you will see a substantial return should you choose to smell the roses and send some money to Vanguard or Fidelity. If you want some quick money* here's my current pick - Statoil - the Norwegian oil company, is very undervalued at $17.77. In addition they are paying a 5.5% dividend! That is like free money!

yer welcome,
Simon Legree

*'quick' being 9-12 months, minimum. "
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:17am PT
Yunno, there's also the "human aspect". Where people just get on each others nerves, it's all about them, it's not about saving their country or the world or whatevs.

here's the letter the Greeks sent today. A nearly unreadable font. Obviously, to show their disdain.

http://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/ilovepdf_merged-2.pdf
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:22am PT
They could have just said "We've run out of other people's money".
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:22am PT
Couch, they're well run, well capitalized, and they sit on a gold mine with two more to come on
line in the relatively near future. Did I mention they're just above their historic low price? Nine
months might be a bit optimistic to see a major uptick but 18 months isn't and I'll be happy
with that dividend in the meantime. Historically they've been pretty steady with the dividends.
I see it as a low risk cash holding with strong upside probability of a mean reversion to $25
which would be a tidy 50% return.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 10:28am PT
Hey Reilly, you ol' smartypants, check out bitcoin this week.
Jeremy B.

climber
Northern California
Jun 30, 2015 - 11:58am PT
Huh? That article was pretty good until that point.

I disagree; I think it got lost in the dogmatic weeds once it veered into the "tax cuts would make it all better" fantasy land. About the only think it really got right, and probably by accident, is the potential risk to the non-Greek banks.

That risk may be minor (Greece is small) or major (they figured Greek capitulation was a no-lose bet and went all-in with 40:1 leverage). But that's only part of the picture; as others have posted, there's all sorts of things that could happen.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 30, 2015 - 12:19pm PT
Well, "pretty good" is C+/B-, isn't it? His points on the banks, the piss poor
Greek economy, the 'contagion factor', and the cluelessness of the Greek
government are all valid, if dumbed down for public consumption. ;-)
John Duffield

Mountain climber
New York
Jun 30, 2015 - 03:05pm PT
The deadline, has just passed. It's July now in Greece. Not sure if there was a white knight or not. The amount, 1.6 Billion, is laughable. It's about what it costs to take Air Force One on a jaunt.

Kind of sad. The U.S., has an unaccountable Federal Government as well. No one is big enough to save us.

Brokedownclimber

Trad climber
Douglas, WY
Jun 30, 2015 - 06:29pm PT
Banks are closed, and ATM Machines are limited to Eu 60 per day withdrawals. Businesses will be feeling the pinch since most credit card payments have been suspended. Cash is king. The average Greek will feel the pain immediately. The International Banksters are smiling...
john hansen

climber
Jun 30, 2015 - 07:34pm PT
The 1.6 billion is only this payment.

They owe over 330 billion. 225% of there GDP, compared to USA 100% There is another payment of 3.9 billion due in mid July.

Even at 3 percent interest , that is 10 billion dollars a year just to keep above water with out paying off any principle.

The entire annual Greek GDP is only about 147 Billion.

http://moneymorning.com/2015/03/25/how-much-does-greece-owe-4-charts-that-put-greek-debt-in-perspective/
Messages 61 - 80 of total 398 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
Return to Forum List
 
Our Guidebooks
spacerCheck 'em out!
SuperTopo Guidebooks

guidebook icon
Try a free sample topo!

 
SuperTopo on the Web

Recent Route Beta