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Ghost
climber
A long way from where I started
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May 14, 2015 - 11:50am PT
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how fuking stupid are you, John?
Would you say those words if you were posting under your own name?
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 14, 2015 - 11:54am PT
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they failed to regulate the exploding new toxic world of financial derivative, and they failed to tighten mortgage underwriting
And the idiots who bought way more house than they could afford because they
were too dumb to do the simple math aren't the major culprits in this?
It is well known that many of those people had NO IDEA what an adjustable
rate mortgage was.
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couchmaster
climber
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Topic Author's Reply - May 14, 2015 - 11:56am PT
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Ghost asked Norton, quote: "Would you say those words if you were posting under your own name? " Of course "Norton" would David. He already has.
Norton: "I am the President of Risk Management Corporation, and you are welcome to go to the New Mexico Corporation website to verify this, I incorporated in 1993.
John P Schmidt director, agent, and President.
Mailing Address
5724 Peppertree Pl Ne
Albuquerque, NM - 87111"
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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May 14, 2015 - 11:57am PT
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Even if that's true, TGT, the 'fiscally responsible' Repubs had the responsibility & opportunity to change it.
Thus, Norton's comment remains uncomfortably true:
"they failed to regulate the exploding new toxic world of financial derivative, and they failed to tighten mortgage underwriting"
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crankster
Trad climber
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May 14, 2015 - 12:03pm PT
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the source of the subprime crisis was liberal Democrats Bill Clinton and the CRA. I suppose this helps righties sleep at night, incredible over simplistic statements like this.
It will be interesting to see which party ends up with a candidate able to make a credible case for the center.
While this statement by John is accurate, his belief that Republicans are as far of right of center as Democrats are to the left is wrong. Tea party extremists own the Republican party, there's simply nothing close on the left.
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10b4me
Social climber
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May 14, 2015 - 12:04pm PT
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Actually Santorum is really funny. I LMAO at him every time I see him.
+1, his views are hilarious.
can't figure out who is more conservative though, santorum, or cruz.
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John M
climber
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May 14, 2015 - 12:05pm PT
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And the idiots who bought way more house than they could afford because they
were too dumb to do the simple math aren't the major culprits in this?
It is well known that many of those people had NO IDEA what an adjustable
rate mortgage was.
the hope is that the lawmakers are wiser then those who need to be regulated because supposedly they have the good of the people as their guide whereas the individual can too easily be guided by greed. But now that lawmakers can make cash by becoming lobbyists, and other ways, greed now rules the day everywhere.
So yes.. the person who over bought has a responsibility, and they did pay, ( many lost their homes), but the lawmakers are there to protect the whole, and this they failed at.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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May 14, 2015 - 12:10pm PT
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they failed to regulate the exploding new toxic world of financial derivative, and they
failed to tighten mortgage underwriting
That doesn't pass the straight face test, considering the efforts of Mssrs. Dodd and Frank to keep Freddie and Fannie underwriting bad loans in the face of criticism that their actions were leading to such a crisis.
There is no evidence that regulation of derivatives in residential mortgage lending would have helped in the least, considering that the consensus economic forecasts as recently as early 2007 were that there would be, at most, a slowdown in growth. When I sent a forecast to a client in 2006 saying that I saw a risk of a significant downturn, I had a lot of persuading to do before I found anyone believing me. Given the government's track record of anticipating economic developments, I don't think the regulators would have had the foresight to act properly.
In any case, if there's any "ownership" of economic troubles, it's of the Democrats, who own the weakest post-war recovery in American economic history.
John
Edit: Apogee, I think behavioral economics has merit, and there has been a great deal of academic interest in it in recent years, but I haven't found it particularly useful for the analyses that I do. I'm usually dealing with fairly large aggregates, where the quirks of individual behavior tend to be smoothed out.
In years past, though, I had to pay more attention to how people made decisions in particular markets. In the early 1970's I was working for a manufacturer of OEM and replacement air filters for Class 8 diesel trucks. The sale of new and replacement truck tractors mattered a great deal in forecasting our sales, profits and cash flows. After interviewing several purchasers of big trucks, I found that their buying decisions differed from what I viewed as just a purely financial decisionso. I had to include surrogates for those other factors in my models.
The default assumption in economics is that economic actors behave in their perceived self-interest, but we usually proceed to assume that they behave in our perception of their self-interest. I remain interested to see how the newer studies change our perceptions of the actions we observe.
John
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John M
climber
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May 14, 2015 - 12:16pm PT
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In any case, if there's any "ownership" of economic troubles, it's of the Democrats, who own the weakest post-war recovery in American economic history.
yes.. lets base our policy on boom bust.. wars=profit..
by the way.. there wasn't as big of an upturn because we are still at war. We didn't really win, so their was no real upsurge in hope. Just a continual slog. Hope is what drives people to produce and try more. Show me any hope that things will be better when we ended the war in Iraq…
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apogee
climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
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May 14, 2015 - 12:23pm PT
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"In any case, if there's any "ownership" of economic troubles, it's of the Democrats, who own the weakest post-war recovery in American economic history."
So your only defense for the reality that your Party was at the helm one of the greatest economic disasters in American history is the fact that the following Party didn't clean it up fast enough?
All of the horrible things that are attributed to the Democrat's economic policies could have been easily addressed under GWB's 8 years. Nothing was done during this time...matter of fact, the conditions were magnified.
And then the only defense is that the Dems didn't clean it up fast enough? Weak. Really weak.
Not that this will matter much...Reps gonna be Reps, and are gonna vote for another Rep, no matter what their horrible economic record. They still believe that wealth is gonna trickle down upon them with a Republican POTUS. Truly foolish, don't you think?
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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May 14, 2015 - 12:30pm PT
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No. I don't concede Republicans were "at the helm" alone. While their performance offers much to criticize, the Democrats gave them plenty of help.
The weak recovery, on the other had, owes most of its weakness to a business-hostile regulatory environment, and demonstrates that policies made without regard to cost produce suboptimal results.
John
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dirtbag
climber
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May 14, 2015 - 12:32pm PT
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And actually, for the past four years a conservative house, and now house and senate, have blocked every reform promoted by the Dems. Before that, 2009-2011, conservatives handed out filibuster threats like candy.
The Dems had a weak majority 2009-2011, then a divided government after that.
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johntp
Trad climber
socal
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May 14, 2015 - 12:53pm PT
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Flame away.
Well, that has some assumptions. I am not ghey!
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Gary
Social climber
From A Buick 6
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May 14, 2015 - 01:00pm PT
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Fakt: The economy is its own beast and largely does not march to the rhythm of whoever is in the White House.
It's just a coincidence then, that recessions came towards the end of Republican administrations?
http://www.princeton.edu/~mwatson/papers/Presidents_Blinder_Watson_July2014.pdf
For most of this paper, the dataset begins either when U.S. quarterly NIPA accounts begin, in 1947:Q1, or at the start of Harry Truman’s elected term and extends through 2013:Q1. In many of our calculations, we group observations by four-year presidential terms; so the sample contains seven complete Democratic terms (Truman-2, Kennedy-Johnson, Johnson, Carter, Clinton-1, Clinton-2, and Obama-1) and nine
complete Republican terms (Eisenhower-1, Eisenhower-2, Nixon, Nixon-Ford, Reagan-1, Reagan-2 , Bush I, Bush II-1, and Bush II-2), where the suffixes denote terms for two-term presidents. During the 64 years that make up these 16 term s, real GDP growth averaged 3.33% at an annual rate. But the average growth rates under Democratic and Republican presidents were
starkly different: 4.35% and 2.54% respectively. This 1.80 percentage point gap (henceforth, the “D-R gap”) is astoundingly large relative to the sample mean. It impliesthat over a typical four-year presidency the U.S. economy grew by 18.6% when the president was a Democrat, but only
by 10.6% when he was a Republican. And the variances of quarterly growth rates are roughly equal (3.8% for Democrats, 3.9% for Republicans,
annualized), so Democratic presidents preside over growth that is fast
er but not more volatile.
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crankster
Trad climber
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May 14, 2015 - 01:02pm PT
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Since the lack of regulation was the primary cause of the Great Recession I don't buy the argument that over regulation is slowing the recovery.
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Craig Fry
Trad climber
So Cal.
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May 14, 2015 - 01:04pm PT
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owes most of its weakness to a business-hostile regulatory environment, and demonstrates that policies made without regard to cost produce suboptimal results.
Link please
This is pure partisan spin
What have the Repubs done for the recovery of the economy??
They put the brakes on, that's what they did.
all they did was give away tax breaks and at the same time imposed austerity, a known economy drain.
And then there was the Sequestration!, that did nothing more than put people out of work and starve Gov. programs, it was a complete disaster.
The Repubs filibustered every single bill that would have put people to work OR would have helped the economy.
The Dems had ONLY 27 working days when they had a 60 vote Senate, I'm sorry that the Repubs use this lie about the Dems being in charge and not being able to fix the economy.
The Repubs have had the last 5 years to do anything, but they instead worked against the President and intensified the suffering of Millions of Americans for nothing more than political fighting.
The only thing that Obama could do for the last 5 years is control the Fed and give out money at low interest rates, it has helped the economy with some aspects, and this may have saved us from another Republican caused recession,.
John. your argument is so disingenuous.
Tell us what could have been done? besides this illusion of a hostile regulatory environment.
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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May 14, 2015 - 01:22pm PT
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Uh, Gary, using yer logic it could be equally put that those recessions came
about due to the Democrats' policies and the recoveries due to the Repubs'.
In reality, though, the morons in Congress and the White House are just riding
the waves, for better or for worse.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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May 14, 2015 - 01:55pm PT
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Since the lack of regulation was the primary cause of the Great Recession I don't buy the argument that over regulation is slowing the recovery.
I guess we're even, Crankster, because I don't buy the argument that lack of regulation caused the "Great Recession." I put that in quotes because the trough of the 1982 recession was deeper than the "Great" one, but the recovery was so much more vigorous that the duration was far less.
In reality, though, the morons in Congress and the White House are just riding the waves, for better or for worse.
I would say it's more like riding whitewater. You can't really fight the current, but you can decide where to be relative to which bank. The idea is to avoid the bad places by being on the correct side of the river. Craig, by eliminating bad - and very costly - regulation as a source of trouble, you assume your answer. The Republicans try to row the kayak to the safest part of the water, but understand that water flows downhill. The Democrats spend too much effort trying to row upstream, and end up in stoppers and waterfalls too often as a result.
John
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Gary
Social climber
From A Buick 6
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May 14, 2015 - 02:58pm PT
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Uh, Gary, using yer logic it could be equally put that those recessions came
about due to the Democrats' policies and the recoveries due to the Repubs'.
In reality, though, the morons in Congress and the White House are just riding
the waves, for better or for worse.
Seems too much of a coincidence that all the recessions began towards the end of a Republican administration, doesn't it?
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