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TLP
climber
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Nov 24, 2018 - 07:04pm PT
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Albatross, thanks for weighing in based on your experience. It's right in line with the findings in that Angora report linked above. There had been a lot of fuel management in the upwind forest prior to the fire, and it helped a lot. Likewise, "urban lots" owned by USFS and the Tahoe Conservancy had been heavily managed: shrub stratum greatly reduced (often eliminated), smaller diameter trees removed, etc. Exactly what you suggest. Turned out these too helped a huge amount. See the quotes above.
But we all recognize, fires are going to happen. Some from power lines. Some (Angora) from incompletely extinguished campfires. Some from lightning. At Angora, the initial fire burned largely as surface fire or scorching but not fully involving the crown stratum. Not too bad. Then it got to a couple of houses with firewood piles and decks, and from there it was off to the races and consumed a few hundred homes, I think. Defensible space within the neighborhood was mostly OK, as it is usually defined. But embers from burning houses ignited other houses.
There were places where steep slopes and the high winds at the time resulted in crown fires of thinned forest. But mostly not.
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TomCochrane
Trad climber
Cascade Mountains and Monterey Bay
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Nov 24, 2018 - 09:48pm PT
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My house is in tall forest with dense underbrush and no nearby neighbors within eyesight. I belong to the county search and rescue team and two volunteer fire districts with very experienced firefighters and trainers. The nearby fire hall gives me a choice to drive a 350-gallon brush truck or a 1100-gallon urban interface engine or a 3000-gallon tender. There's normally only two or three of us responding that station. Sometimes I park the engine in my driveway. I spent most of the summer clearing back brush for 50 to 100 feet away from the house and long access road. I installed a large water tank on the slope above the house with a pull-start Honda pump driving a pre-placed fire hose lay and connection to the house plumbing. The house has a well and two backup generators and with sprinkler and soaker hoses installed all around the house under the eves. There are also garden sprinklers installed on all sides of the house. My place has a one-acre pond and the Honda pump can be moved to the pond to fill fire engines or to directly feed fire hose lays. So do I feel prepared? No, not under the conditions we are observing.
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i'm gumby dammit
Sport climber
da ow
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Nov 24, 2018 - 10:46pm PT
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^well, i think you're prepared, fwiw.
sounds like you must be present to win though to some degree.
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TLP
climber
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Nov 25, 2018 - 08:31am PT
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Sounds like you're well situated to deal with a moderate intensity fire at your house, but if it's a crown fire, no chance. They're just too hot. Thin that lower vegetation stratum out at least 1000 feet so a crown fire drops to the ground, and you're good to go if you're there. There was a silviculture field experiment in Lassen NF a decade or so ago, testing different thinning and other treatments not for fire resistance but for maximizing timber production and other values. A fire burned right through it and they thought it was ruined, but on the contrary it showed that, even with zero human response, the treatment with lower level fuels removed dropped to a ground fire and the forest was fine in that plot. Consistent with theory, but nice to have an empirical demonstration.
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Clyde
Mountain climber
Boulder
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Nov 25, 2018 - 03:47pm PT
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I'm in a similar situation as Tom. Surrounded by roughly 2,000 acres of ponderosa (smells like vanilla)/fir and actively manage about 40 acres around us (hence my experience writing the book). Neighbors far enough away we can barely see them. We have a 10,000 gallon cistern on the property for the neighborhood. Backup generator to keep the well running. After all my work, fairly confident our house will survive if I'm not home. Very confident if we stay and far safer than evacing. Aside from all the mitigation, we have 200' of hose, fire gel to spray, multiple water can extinguishers, etc.
FWIW I don't recommend rooftop or other sprinklers. Sound good in theory but if you're on city, the water pressure will likely fail, and if you're on well, you'll suck it dry and burn out the motor; plus water evaporates too fast (foam is better, gel is best). Heat-resistant paint is mostly a joke. Some windows can actually start fires from intense reflection. Siding is less important than many, many other factors. There's a lot of BS sold in this market that primarily separates money from wallets with no benefits at all. Do your homework.
Since Boulder routinely gets winds over 100 mph and they've done little for prep, besides lip service, don't be surprised if there's a fire that rivals some of the recent Cali events.
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steve s
Trad climber
eldo
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Nov 25, 2018 - 05:28pm PT
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Clyde, Thanks for posting the info. What type of gel do you have ready? Foam ? My house in Eldo is definitely at risk because of the proximity of the houses and the fact that the brush and dead fall has accumulated over the years. The last several years the community has done multiple brush cleanups with the help of the local fire department......still a long way to go.
Long time no see. Hope you are well. Steve Sangdahl
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TLP
climber
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Nov 25, 2018 - 05:33pm PT
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Thanks to both Timid and Clyde for correction and information. I do plan to do some homework! probably starting with your book...
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the albatross
Gym climber
Flagstaff
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Nov 25, 2018 - 06:31pm PT
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Blazetamer 384 is a gel product that was used on the 416 fire this summer near Durango. That product along with several others is being tested by the State of Colorado as an additive to make water more effective and longer lasting. I mostly fight fire with helicopters, but I’m sure those products could be put in a ground pump or engine.
Pruning trees and pile burning is a great community activity to get the whole neighborhood involved in mitigating fire risk. I live in a remote Juniper grassland in northern AZ. Last winter I burned a fire line around my property and plan to do more burning in the next two months.
I agree with the poster who commented about Boulder area being in danger. It’s not “if”, it’s “when” will it burn. I can recall off the top of my head at least half dozen Front Range fires in the last 6 years or so that have been quite difficult to contain. Keep in mind that with winds over about 30 mph, most fire aircraft will be ineffective or grounded.
Edit to add: gels and foams are two different products, both used by wildland firefighters.
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HighTraverse
Trad climber
Bay Area
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Nov 26, 2018 - 01:46pm PT
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Drove down PCH day before Turkey Day.
Through Malibu it was very sobering.
PCH is 4 lanes wide.
About 1/3 of the mega houses on the uphill side were damaged. A few destroyed.
A large number of houses on the ocean side of the highway are also destroyed! So the fire jumped downhill (from the steep mountains) with high intensity across 60 or so feet of asphalt and berms!
WTF!!!
A very sobering view.
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ontheedgeandscaredtodeath
Social climber
Wilds of New Mexico
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Nov 26, 2018 - 03:46pm PT
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Fires on the coast can be driven by Santa Ana winds, which accelerate and heat as the air moves downhill. No problem jumping freeways, etc.
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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Thanks, Batrock. You beat me to that NY Times article. That's some critical info. Of particular interest to me was the pre-Euro levels of burn, something I've often wondered about. Besides fires started by natives, any lightning strike started fire would burn until it ran out of fuel or winter struck. So chew on these stats:
"Approximately 6.9 million acres burned in California wildfires from 2008 to 2017."
If pre-Euro (pre 1800's) fire level estimates are anywhere close, that period of time (10 years) would have seen more than DOUBLE that acreage burned--15 million acres.
Smoky skies, summer through fall every year. Now, with about 40 million people, including morons, criminals, and those who have/cause accidents, including aging infrastructure (power lines, etc.), including some dry/dead forest, and you get what we have today and the tragedies of the Carr, Camp, and other fires. It's interesting that nature is finding a way to burn no matter what. We just happen to be in the way. Oy.
BAd
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Reilly
Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
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From The Economist via U of Maryland, Columbia U, and Lund U:
“Wildfires cause 330,000 premature deaths a year by spewing smoke,
far more than by trapping victims.
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Jon Beck
Trad climber
Oceanside
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The Camp Fire may be out but the damage continues
California's Camp Fire didn't just kill dozens of people and destroy thousands of homes. It also left an insurance company in financial ruins, unable to pay millions of dollars to policyholders.
A state judge ruled that Merced Property & Casualty Co. can't meet its obligations after last month's Camp Fire, the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in California history.
Merced's assets are about $23 million, but it faced about $64 million in outstanding liabilities just in the city of Paradise , court filings show.
Judge Brian McCabe's decision allows the California Department of Insurance to take control of Merced. According to court documents, the state's Conservation & Liquidation Office will start liquidating what's left of the company.
The insurance industry will cover the claims, they can not afford to have insured homeowners lose faith in the system. expect rates to go way up in high risk areas.
https://www.10news.com/news/national/wildfire-in-california-causes-insurance-company-to-go-under
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TLP
climber
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Bad, read upthread a bit more carefully. The reason for the (human) property damage and deaths from these fires has practically zero to do with vegetation fires, and everything to do with construction practice and the foothill/mountain lifestyle of storing flammable crap all around our houses. There is no reason at all that anyone should need to evacuate when a giant wildfire burns through. All we need to do is limit vegetation so that the fire burns as surface fire only when it is in the neighborhood, clear a mere 5 feet of space of anything burnable at all, build our houses to be more ember resistant, and above all not to store firewood and so on all around. The wildfires are not a problem at all, it is the urban fires they become that is damaging. There are tons of references from highly authoritative sources to this effect, yet no one in the media or government is talking about the real issue at all.
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Bad Climber
Trad climber
The Lawless Border Regions
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You're right, TLP. A century of severe fire suppression and millions of people moving into fire prone areas have nothing to do with it. You are aware that the Camp fire burned so hot that cars were melted together? With flames blowing horizontally at high speed, do you really think a five foot clearance would make any meaningful difference? We need a lot more controlled burns and less construction in forested areas, regardless of how careful you are with where you place your firewood. Read the NY Times article. It's hard to argue that fuel buildup isn't a huge, huge, huge issue. You move into a pool of gasoline, it only takes a spark to ruin your day.
BAd
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Charlie D.
Trad climber
Western Slope, Tahoe Sierra
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^^^ TH yea we were just given a 30 day cancelation notice by our agent. Not sure what would happen if the place burned down within that time period. Merced has nothing left.
Interesting situation, we're in their highest risk tier given our place above the American River Canyon close to the PG&E and SMUD transmission lines. Merced was the only company willing to insure after the previous one canceled us along with just about everyone else we know in the community of Camino. Seems both PG&E facing major litigation and the insurance industry are in a non-sustainable business with such liabilities.
We'll see if the State steps forward, there is some sort of wrap around policy the State can offer to supplement an insurance company.
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TLP
climber
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Bad, you're right that more burn area in uninhabited area would be in line with the ecological norm prior to all the development out in forest and shrubland. I did read the NYT item, and a bunch of others previously that all essentially said the same thing - total acreage of California shrubland and forest burned in recent decades is still way lower than previously, and the 6.9 million acres is still way too low to achieve the fire return intervals that are consistent with stable late seral forest. There isn't actually (yet) a confirmed trend that we're having more large fires now than before, even with increasing drought and heat. However, the Cal Fire list shows most of the known recorded large fires in terms of area are since 2000, and the research on this only goes through maybe 10 years ago and that might change if data up to 2018 were added to the same analysis. But the data is also very skewed toward recent times because we have better info. Jon Keeley (USGS fire researcher, fantastic scientist, has published like 100 or 1000 papers on California forest and shrubland fire ecology) provided solid information that by far the largest fire in 19th c. or later California history occurred in Southern California chaparral (1889 Santiago Canyon fire), and burned somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 acres (abstract available at https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/08-0281.1 , with some surfing you can find the whole paper). So Cal chaparral is a different system than Sierra conifer forest, but others have published similarly rigorous analysis showing the same thing for Sierra forest.
It's also true there was a lot of flame in Paradise being blown sideways, as is typical during these kinds of events (it's always windy). But it was flame from HOUSES not vegetation. Look at the photos, in many of them, the only burned trees are the ones right around and above the ashes of burned houses. Same exact thing in the Angora fire, from which I posted a couple photos upthread, from the USFS report about effectiveness of fuel treatments. Here's one from Colorado, ecologically similar habitat (ponderosa pine forest):
The forest in this whole area had been treated, and a large part of it burned, including probably all of what you see in the photo. But only as a surface fire, leaving the tree canopy largely unaffected. Exactly what the point of fuel management and prescribed burns would be. Yet a lot of houses burned, because somehow that very low intensity surface fire, or maybe the small size of embers that can blow any significant distance through this habitat, ignited them.
Yes, the 5 feet makes a big difference, even in a windy fire. And not having firewood or lumber stacked around also is huge. But fire resistance is a community thing: everybody has to be on board, or you get one or two houses going and those provide the direct heat and big embers that ignite their neighbors. The fire intensities that burned those cars were the houses, not the vegetation. In Paradise, the Camp Fire was not a forest crown fire with flames blowing horizontally hundreds of feet from the trees, it was an urban fire and a lot of the trees remain standing and green in the town area.
I totally agree we should have more burned area in the Sierra, and that we will have more burned area no matter what we do, but we don't have to have whole towns burned up every year, as we have had both of the last two years. We just need to focus on the houses and yards and make them more fire resistant.
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