Best weather forecasts for Yosemite Valley?

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Messages 1 - 18 of total 18 in this topic
looks easy from here

climber
Ben Lomond, CA
Topic Author's Original Post - Mar 24, 2014 - 06:48pm PT
Does anyone have a site that they prefer and find generally accurate?

I'm trying to plan a trip to the Valley this week, but none of the weather forecasts I've been looking up agree about anything. For the last week I've been checking weather.com, accuweather.com, wunderground.com and forecast.weather.gov, and all four are all over the place, day-to-day, and between each other.

Thanks in advance for any help.
John M

climber
Mar 24, 2014 - 07:04pm PT
I find the government site to be the most accurate. I live in Wawona. I combine it with Howard Sheckter's site. He is an amateur weatherman over in Mammoth. He explains things so you have a better idea of what might happen and why either it changed or didn't happen.

http://mammothweather.com

[quote]Monday AM:
No change to earlier thinking with the timing of the beginning of the precip into the high country early Tuesday evening. Snow Levels crash Tuesday night with snowfall accumulations good enough for a plow expected in the morning….then again in the late afternoon.
The big change is in the longer range, with the system for Sunday coming in earlier now and not splitting like before. The Sierra stands a good chance of a better outcome snowfall wise Sunday with another system hot on its heals Monday into Tuesday. April Roars in like a Lion?
 See more at: http://mammothweather.com/#sthash.UG6Ebo7x.dpuf[/quote]

He refers to the previous forecast which said the storm might split. This is why forecasts for Yosemite can be tricky in the fall and spring. We seem to be right in the middle of storms either going north or south. Either way we might get something, but its often not a slam dunk like a winter storm headed right at us.

my own opinion is that weather.com is the worst.

edit: I should add, this time of year I see lots of change day to day in the forecast. No site gets it right very far in advance.
Clint Cummins

Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
Mar 24, 2014 - 07:21pm PT
I've found forecast.weather.gov to be pretty accurate:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.74031329210266&lon=-119.5697021484375&site=hnx&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en
John M

climber
Mar 24, 2014 - 07:31pm PT
thats interesting Clint. The gov page that I have is different. with a different forecast.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.75&lon=-119.59#.UzC_3lxhlZE

and if you put in the zip code, then you get this. which is for 9 miles sw of the valley floor.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.64996302207692&lon=-119.71584780083464&site=all&smap=1#.UzDAJVxhlZE

I have yet to fully figure out their site.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Oregon
Mar 24, 2014 - 07:32pm PT


I second the gov site. They will even give pretty good forecasts for any spot on the map you point at. Helps a lot if you are going someplace like Charlotte Dome.
John M

climber
Mar 24, 2014 - 07:39pm PT
Clint's

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.74031329210266&lon=-119.5697021484375&site=hnx&smap=1&marine=0&unit=0&lg=en#.UzDAjVxhlZE


the link that I have

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.75&lon=-119.59


if you put the zip code in the hanford site. 95389


http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.64996302207692&lon=-119.71584780083464&site=all&smap=1


I have no idea why they are all different.

looks easy from here

climber
Ben Lomond, CA
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2014 - 08:32pm PT
Awesome. Thanks for the info and suggestions, guys.

I should add, this time of year I see lots of change day to day in the forecast. No site gets it right very far in advance

I guess I'm a little spoiled by my predictable low elevation, near-coastal weather. That's okay, though-I'm game for chancing getting wet. :)
Clint Cummins

Trad climber
SF Bay area, CA
Mar 24, 2014 - 08:34pm PT
I have no idea why they are all different.
John,
They are "point" (latitude,longitude) forecasts, and Yosemite N.P. is a big place, with big differences in elevation and temperature for many location points.
Look at the small map on each of those links, and especially the Elevation. Click on [+] to zoom in and see the road names.
I think the default point for "Yosemite" weather is somewhere in Tuolumne Meadows.

1. The point in the link I gave is in Lower Pines Campground, elevation 4002.
2. The second link looks like it is at the SAR building, but the elevation says 4759, so it must be some kind of average over the dark green square, which includes the rim north of Yosemite Falls.
3. The third link looks like Yosemite West, elevation 6196.

I also use a point forecast for Parkline Slab sometimes - it's almost always warmer, and sometimes the %chance of precip is different there also.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Mar 24, 2014 - 09:40pm PT
Regarding weather reports for climbing areas....I always look at multiple sources and go with the one I like.
WBraun

climber
Mar 24, 2014 - 09:55pm PT
Best weather forecasts for Yosemite Valley?

It comes from dispatch over the parks two way radio net .....
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Mar 24, 2014 - 09:57pm PT
and if you put in the zip code, then you get this. which is for 9 miles sw of the valley floor.

Which would probably put you dead nuts on for either the center of the zip code or the post office that is associated with it.

That site is based on 1km grids and I've used it for years.

You can use the map and place the 1KM grid wherever you want it and then just save the link for future use.

What works best is to use a grid that corresponds to a CDEC or other on line real time weather station and see how they compare over a few seasons.

For example, I use the grid that includes the Lost Horse weather station for J Tree. Since they moved the station a few hundred yards out of the canyon it has been spot on. Before they moved it out of the shade of the canyon wind velocity's and temperatures were always too low. (warmists take note)

Tahquitz doesn't have a comparable online station, but you can center a grid at about 8,000 ft and it will be spot on.

For the valley you;d probably want to have a grid at floor level and one at rim level and consider both.

Works well in the eastern Sierra as well.
looks easy from here

climber
Ben Lomond, CA
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2014 - 10:03pm PT
Regarding weather reports for climbing areas....I always look at multiple sources and go with the one I like.

Heh, I may be guilty of that when sharing the forecasts with my group; dunno why the more pragmatic people in it still take my word on what's a good idea, but as long as they do...
JOEY.F

Gym climber
It's not rocket surgery
Mar 24, 2014 - 11:37pm PT
LEFH,
Bummer as it looks kinda like crappy climbing weather,
NOAA Hanford Forcast...

Detailed Forecast

Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
Tuesday A 30 percent chance of rain after 11am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 49. Breezy, with a southwest wind 5 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
Tuesday Night Rain before 11pm, then snow. Low around 28. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday Snow showers. High near 33. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Wednesday Night Snow showers. Low around 25. Southwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Thursday A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the evening.
Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 45. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Southwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
looks easy from here

climber
Ben Lomond, CA
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 25, 2014 - 12:00am PT
Bummer as it looks kinda like crappy climbing weather

Yeah, but such is life. I have no doubt we'll still have fun-we'll just hit some of the lower elevation, short approach, single pitch crags that we can bail off quickly if it get too wet, or do some hikes and stuff that doesn't require as much grip.
Risk

Mountain climber
Olympia, WA
Mar 25, 2014 - 01:44am PT
I'm not sure it matters what the weather is. If you're into the outdoors why does it matter? Go check it out. No matter what it is, it'll be good. Pay no attention to the forecast. You'll figure it out when you get there.
HighTraverse

Trad climber
Bay Area
Mar 25, 2014 - 01:53am PT
I live on a ridge in the SCruz mtns.
Anyone up here knows we're a melange of microclimates. Rather like Yosemite (just not as extreme).
The previously mentioned NOAA forecasts (forecast.weather.gov.....) are surprisingly accurate when you take advantage of the pinpoint. The forecast for my place will generally be noticeably different from the forecast one square over. And usually correct.
It's the best source I've found.

TMJesse----I'm generally of your philosophy, "f(* the weather, climb it anyway". But I've also survived an avalanche (in the early 80's) and if the weather forecast had been correct, I'd have been nowhere near Shepherd's Pass. The forecast was for 10 days of stable weather and then the 100 year storm barreled into California. Forecasts are MUCH better now and occasionally worth paying attention to.
JOEY.F

Gym climber
It's not rocket surgery
Mar 25, 2014 - 10:33pm PT
Looks Easy,
Seeing pockets of good weather, I'm sure you will have a good time.
limpingcrab

Trad climber
the middle of CA
Apr 28, 2016 - 04:57pm PT
Anything not yet mentioned out there that's good for pinpoint forecasts in the Sierra?

Seems like weather.gov overestimates precipitation a bit, and weather.com underestimates a bit.

Any new apps or sites that people like? Ideally for the whole range, not just Yosemite specific.
Messages 1 - 18 of total 18 in this topic
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