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WBraun
climber
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Aug 28, 2013 - 11:21pm PT
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Assad didn't do it .....
You stupid Americans will never learn.
You're too stupid.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Aug 28, 2013 - 11:24pm PT
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Allow the President to dispatch up to 20k troops to any two discontiguous conflicts for six months on their signature alone with a one week notice to Congress. Sorry but your plan is already obsolete: as Obama has discovered, in the new world of drone strikes, "troops" are increasingly irrelevant to how we kill them damn foreigners.
That 20k rubric will include any form of military deployment, i.e. drones or cruise missiles under the control of the US military would be included. Drones under other agency control such as the CIA is a different matter and if we don't want our intelligence agencies in the assassination business then that is more properly addressed in Congress and the courts.
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WBraun
climber
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Aug 28, 2013 - 11:25pm PT
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Ron
Now you're becoming an intelligent American ....
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Patrick Sawyer
climber
Originally California now Ireland
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Aug 29, 2013 - 03:39am PT
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I could see either side gassing. I would think that both sides have access to chemical weapons.
The more extremist rebels, from different countries, want an Islamic state. Assad just wants power.
This is a lose-lose situation.
The only winners are the arms dealers.
As for Russia, they are still pissed off for selling Alaska so cheap. Ask Sarah Palin. She can see Russia from her front door. And she is not even Alaskan.
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Brokedownclimber
Trad climber
Douglas, WY
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Aug 29, 2013 - 10:25am PT
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Only Werner has identified the true beneficiary of a war with Syria. In ancient Rome, when someone was assassinated, the question was always "Que Bene?" Who benefits. In this case, I too suspect a "false flag" operation.
This is another International Tar Baby, just waiting for some dunce to throw a punch at it. I hope Obama is smart enough (though I doubt it...) to avoid making another error.
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climbski2
Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
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Aug 29, 2013 - 10:27am PT
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A wise man once said.
"The first casualty of war is the truth"
Another observation.
This administration had more difficulty figuring out what happened in our own embassy when three people were killed than it seems to have in declaring this a gassing and ASSad responsible.
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Don Paul
Big Wall climber
Colombia, South America
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Aug 29, 2013 - 11:36am PT
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Ron
Now you're becoming an intelligent American ....
Agreed, Ron has come a long way. Hopefully we can all take some credit for that, lol. On Syria, the best quote is from Zbigniew Brezyinski, who just said that if Obama has a strategy for Syria, its one of the best kept secrets in the government.
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rockermike
Trad climber
Berkeley
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Aug 29, 2013 - 11:44am PT
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Largo
Sport climber
The Big Wide Open Face
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Aug 29, 2013 - 11:58am PT
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Any nation can be seen as a family of people. Once a family gets dysfunctional, outside help is often needed; but how often and how effectively can change be forced on any family or nation?
It is probably not possible to change Syria to our liking. Likely the only thing that is doable per the gassing is to punish the boss, under whose watch this terrible thing happened. If that became a policy, that the man in charge (and it's always a male in Arab conflicts) was forfeited per any use of WMDs, gas etc., then perhaps that is something to consider. But if you look at the concept and statistics per force being a deterrent (even the death penalty), the track record is piss poor.
Perhaps the biggest challenge is to manage the impulse to use aggression, and going easy on the propaganda insisting that lest we act with murderous force we are weak. The stronger act might be self control.
It's ugly.
JL
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Aug 29, 2013 - 02:03pm PT
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This is first and foremost a long-simmering tribal / sectarian conflict - Shiite (government, minority) vs. Sunni (opposition, majority) - that has drug in Iran, Hezbollah, and every random Sunni nutjob with a gun. Secondly it's a regional sectarian proxy war between Iran (Shiite) and Saudi Arabia / Qatar (Sunni). And third it's a geo-political Cold War remnant because Syria provides Russia with it's only Mediterranean naval port and presence which it doesn't want to lose.
The Sunni vs. Shiite aspect of it means we don't really any measure of control or influence over the conflict: both sides think we're asshats, Shiites don't like us, and fundamentalist Sunnis don't care for us either. But by and large we align with Sunnis over Shiites due to oil and Israel.
Beyond our clumsy history with Iran, the regional proxy aspect of it all leaves us having to throw in with our petroleum partners, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Israel factors in heavily at this level as well. Then there's also just a lot of regional consequences finally coming to fore and playing out from old colonial, 19th & 20th century, less-than-informed western powers decision-making.
And of course, denying Putin his only ported Mediterranean naval presence is high on the candy list, but circumstances are so murky, confused, and out-of-control everyone would prefer the opportunity had never happened. China plays into it all peripherally supporting Iran and generally views western and muslim-on-muslim turmoil as being to its regional and geo-political advantage and would probably love to stir the pot some more if it could figure out how.
All-in-all it's a clusterf*#k of epic proportions which, absent the Israeli/Hezbollah and Russian components we'd be far less interested in. But even setting WMD-use aside, no one has good or clear options here - not us, not Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia / Qatar, or Israel. It's definitely not an 'Obama' deal of any kind beyond being stuck with it and their probably unwise 'red line' comments.
But the whole WMD aspect of the conflict also plays against Iran which has been heavily critical of any use of gas weapons in the wake of the Iran/Iraq war where they saw heavy use. So if it can be definitively proven the Assad's forces used the WMDs it puts Iran between a rock and a hard place politically.
As to who used the WMDs, the Syrian military probably has poorly-controlled, 'loose' elements within it at this point and there are no shortage of opposition elements angling to drag us into a more direct role the conflict. Obama gave them an opening for that with his ill-advised 'red line' rhetoric. As for any talk of our government wanting to go in and running a 'false-flag' operation to trigger our entry - complete rubbish - like get-a-grip, pull-your-head-out-of-your-ass-and-back-away-from-the-internet mindlessness. Crikey.
By and large it's a shitstorm for all concerned and no one - and I mean no one - has good options in front of them.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Aug 29, 2013 - 02:20pm PT
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Benghazi is a veritable Disneyland compared to Syria. No one wants to go in - its a proxy war by design and no one is interested in going in because the odds are good it will further devolve from localized nightmare to an uncontrollable regional debacle with decades of fallout here at home.
Everyone wanting to rush in better be prepared for a long and painful tango of unexpected consequences and that's why the Obama crew is mewling and mealy-mouthing this issue until the last possible minute.
Joe, I added your opinion from a week ago to what you just said because I think you're right on target from my viewpoint.
Syria, like Lebanon, has an exceedingly complex demographic and political landscape. There is a very large Christian minority there, that is terrified of an Islamic opposition gaining control. That minority is probably larger, in percentage terms, than the Copts in Egypt. Although it mostly consists of Syrian Christians (fairly close to Greek Orthodox in worship and doctrine), it also includes at least two ancient ethnic groups -- Assyrians and Armenians -- that are almost entirely Christian.
The Assad regimes (father and son) generally left the Christians alone, so they have not been particularly supportive of insurgencies that appear to have the potential of Islamic emphases. This, of course, makes them vulnerable to atrocities if those insurgencies prevail. It's rather like the Tories in the American Revolution, except there is no Great Britain to protect them.
I know the Armenian missionary community is working on contingency plans for evacuation if needed, but things haven't been so good for the Syrian Christians. Already, two leaders have been kidnapped and, assuming they are still alive, held incommunicado.
As distasteful as it may seem to refrain from insisting on regime change immediately, I think the Obama administration is acting wisely here. As much as I hate to see America lacking leadership here, this ship has a million rudders but no sails. We can't steer it, and even if we could, it can't move.
Any course, no matter how seemingly cautious or decisive, has terrible consequences. Until we can see our way more clearly -- in an area where our intelligence has been exceedingly bad -- we should be extremely wary of substantial military involvement.
John
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dave729
Trad climber
Western America
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Aug 29, 2013 - 02:33pm PT
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" Imagine the poor bastards in the 72 Yakhont 3M55E supersonic anti-ship cruise missile mobile Bastion launch vehicles are not feeling the love
today sitting on the Syrian coast waiting for
US Navy
1000lb Tomahawk warheads
to explode less than 10 feet away (min circular error targeting)"
advice- get out of the vehicles and run away boys!
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Aug 29, 2013 - 03:40pm PT
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They are not suggesting its the US government that planted the false flag, dude. Its Israel that is getting fingered. Come on, get with the paranoia man, its ZOG they're after.
Israel doesn't want this sh#t happening either and certainly don't want us mucking about in the mix given they know that's always like asking an clumsy elephant to a tea party, particularly in this instance where there are no good options. The Israelis would far prefer a stable, Assad-led Syria to this nightmare so scratch an Israeli false-flag op off the list.
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JEleazarian
Trad climber
Fresno CA
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Aug 29, 2013 - 03:51pm PT
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DMT, I think we actually agree. My point in that statement was that it is usually in our interest to lead the international community, but the US has usually shown no real understanding anywhere in the Middle East since at least the 1950's. We acted wisely in refusing to intervene in the Suez crisis, and our intervention in Lebanon under Eisenhower (and with UN blessing) was helpful according to my relatives there. Otherwise we're an outsider looking into a very clouded window.
While we had a few successes since -- the Israel/Egypt agreement was, to my mind, a very substantial achievement (that, sad to say, cost Sadat his life), the law of unintended consequences has overwhelmed any policy objectives or initiatives we've tried.
John
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Chaz
Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
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Aug 29, 2013 - 04:02pm PT
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If we do nothing, Obama's word is sh#t. "Redline" has zero resolve behind it.
If we do do something, there'll be photos circulating the globe of dead babies among American cruise missile fragments.
I'm surprised a political animal like Obama was so short-sighted to issue a "don't do it, or else" threat to the Syrians without considering what would happen if Assad called his bluff.
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Patrick Sawyer
climber
Originally California now Ireland
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Aug 29, 2013 - 04:11pm PT
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I already wrote that it is a lose-lose situation.
I have no answers but I see a bad moon arising.
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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Aug 29, 2013 - 04:11pm PT
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I'm surprised a political animal like Obama was so short-sighted to issue a "don't do it, or else" threat to the Syrians without considering what would happen if Assad called his bluff.
So what if Assad did call his bluff?
Obviously the bluff didn't work in the first place, so it's not as if Obama's word had anyone especially scared before this incident.
Seem to me that Obama's word was already sh#t--this just confirms it a little more, but the status quo is unchanged.
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healyje
Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
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Aug 29, 2013 - 05:00pm PT
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If we do strike it will be us, the UK, and France. Targets will probably be their SCUDs and WMD facilities unless those have been 'urbanized'. It's highly unlikely we'd target anything down at the port.
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Sierra Ledge Rat
Mountain climber
Old and Broken Down in Appalachia
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Aug 29, 2013 - 05:10pm PT
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Let the bastards kill each other off. If we get involved it will just give them more fuel with which to hate us. Let them all die.
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