Can anyone find a problem with this reality?

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Riley Wyna

Trad climber
A crack near you
Topic Author's Original Post - Jan 2, 2013 - 03:32pm PT
I mean what he is talking about is doomsday.
After 2 days of thinking about it I can't find a problem with his logic.



Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:01pm PT
Biggest problem I see is not having 1 hour and 13 minutes to devote to watching that. Who has that kind of free time?!?!! :)
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:02pm PT
Can you sum it up and tweet it to me? I'm at #giantbrain
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:05pm PT
In the first 2 minutes... he is using an exponential function to model growth. In real systems things tend to follow more of a logistic growth pattern... which is also an oversimplification.

Like C said, I don't have time to watch that... besides, I spend a couple lectures teaching it so...
monolith

climber
albany,ca
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:06pm PT
Fracking.

His peak oil chart looks much different now with fracking.

Just skim the vid or go to around 45 minutes. Didn't take more than a couple minutes for me.
john hansen

climber
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:08pm PT
Sure wish I could get 7% on my savings account,, :)

0.75 % just dont do it.
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:10pm PT
Same concept applies to non-conventional oil, it just extends the inevitable while breeding more dependence on over-consumption of a quick, accessible energy source.
monolith

climber
albany,ca
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:20pm PT
Yep, we'll run out of all oil eventually. Just not as quickly as he's predicting. Actually, we'll never run out of oil. It'll just keep getting more expensive. In the mean time, we'll keep adjusting to less oil dependence, but not without some bad spots.
Riley Wyna

Trad climber
A crack near you
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 2, 2013 - 04:22pm PT
Isn't fracking the best arguement for this reality.
Fracking is basically getting at the crumbs that are left.
monolith

climber
albany,ca
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:24pm PT
More than just crumbs. His U.S. peak oil chart would have this huge shoulder in it. What are the fracking reserve estimates now?

moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:26pm PT
Is there a point to it Riley? I watched it for 5 minutes. Just some pretty simple math.

Edit: OK, I see.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:28pm PT
Isn't fracking the best arguement for this reality.
Fracking is basically getting at the crumbs that are left.

Without watching the video....yes, this is true. I could give a good ten paragraph lesson as to how we know our production rates in the future, but you would have to pay me.

I just finished up one and the engineers are getting ready to frack it. This is a normal reservoir, instead of a shale, so it neads far fewer stages and much less fluid.

And it is right smack in the middle of a city. I'm not worried a bit.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 2, 2013 - 04:50pm PT
I do see that the charts above were at least scarfed from the Energy Information Administration which is THE website regarding production and consumption and markets and anything you are willing to read and learn about oil and natural gas. You can become an expert on the field if you read that sucker from one end to the other...if you can pull it off in one lifetime.

Everybody goes off on the Williston Basin and the Bakken shale as if it is going to be a new Saudi Arabia. In fact, it contributes less than a million bbls/day of our 19 million bbl/day consumption. It has provided a small bump in the decline curve of U.S. production, but only because oil prices are through the roof.

These wells cost as much as 10 million bucks to drill, and you have to drill a lot of them. You have to pay out that 10 million dollars to make the well profitable, and if oil went to fifty bucks from the current ~90 bucks, all Bakken drilling would cease.

There is a thing called "finding costs." That is how much a play costs to find each bbl of oil. The finding costs on horizontal stage frac wells are very high. In Saudi Arabia you can drill a 7000 foot vertical well, which costs about 700 grand in the U.S. It will make millions of bbls per well, so the Saudi's have a finding cost of only a few bucks per bbl. The finding costs in the Bakken are up in the tens of dollars per bbl. After production taxes and royalties, the economic situation gets tougher.

If I wasn't busy packing to fly out tomorrow to go buy my sailboat (Yay!), I would pull some wells out of the Bakken and do full economics, post them, and let you see. I have the software and can do a well in about twenty minutes. I already have every well in the midcontinent to Canada zapped into my computer. Everything. Depths, casing, production tests, frac details, pressures, you name it. Everything. I can place everything on a one terrabyte drive, including all of the software.

So I hate it when Republican as#@&%es bitch that Obama had fewer federal permits than Bush. Permits have nothing to do with the President. Economics dictates where you drill and how many wells you drill. All of these plays are also on private land for the most part.

The Bakken is really interesting, because it is the only true "oil shale" similar to "Shale Gas."

Gotta stop. I could go on for hours. You guys have probably seen it. I know my stuff.

Maybe I will watch the video on my trip, but basically this is all you need to know:

We are running out of oil. Yes, there are places where I can drill hundreds of wells and hit oil in all of them, but they won't come close to paying out the drilling cost.

It is all about economics. Government policy has very little to do with it, and there isn't any "corporate welfare" or subsidies for the oil industry. There are two tax writeoffs, and they aren't even used by most companies.

Another thing. Reagan was the worst president for the oil industry. Go read, "The Prize" and email me in a month.
BASE104

Social climber
An Oil Field
Jan 2, 2013 - 05:08pm PT
Elm Coulee Oil Field, Montana-Bakken Shale
Elm Coulee Oil Field, Montana-Bakken Shale
Credit: BASE104

OK. Above is a quicky map of the Elm Coulee Field in NE Montana, one of the better Bakken Shale fields. Each little square is a square mile.

The black dot is the surface location. The line of the wellbore is shown, so you get to see which direction the hole is drilled.

I have the full depth, azimuth, inclination surveys for each well. I have the production decline plot for each well. The wells make most of their oil in the first 4 years and then taper off and pump at a low rate for a long time.

This is one of the better Bakken Fields. I've read that it is the biggest onshore field found in the lower 48 in over fifty years. It's reserves are less than 500 million bbls. 500 million bbls isn't that much, considering that the country has already produced 190 billion bbls of oil. So that big ass field is less than half a percent of all U.S. production since day one.

It is nice for North Dakota, because that is a lot of money for the mineral owners. The shitty thing is that it and all of the other Bakken fields aren't enough to matter a bit.

There have been several much larger fields found in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico in the last twenty years. Thunderhorse is one. The field that the BP Macondo well discovered will probably be much larger than the onshore Elm Coulee field, and they will be able to produce it from four or five platforms. You can drill alot of wells from one platform, and depending on depth, you can reach a several mile radius around the platforms.

I don't work offshore. Anyway, hate to say it but the Bakken is nice and all that, but it isn't a drop of piss in the world market.

Understand? Take wild claims about the Bakken with a grain of salt. It would be a big deal if we didn't consume a quarter of the world's production output.
Dr. F.

Ice climber
SoCal
Jan 2, 2013 - 05:12pm PT
I do have a problem with that reality

But I should watch the video before I say this
karodrinker

Trad climber
San Jose, CA
Jan 2, 2013 - 07:17pm PT
I'd like to see a Macro economic breakdown of all the good and bad that oil has done for humanity. Obviously there would be far too much speculation and subjectivity determining the net damage that oil has caused to be truly scientific, but it really has caused so much damage.

Oil transformed the world, but I'm not sure I'm happy with the transformation. Pollution, commuting, suburbia. The Industrial revolution really revved up once oil became the go to energy source, which just inadvertently sped up the decline of the family and also of society overall by demanding that 1, or often 2 parents leave the house daily, all day, to go work. This leaves the raising of the children to be done by others, institutions and televisions.

Sure modern marvels like cars and plastics and bright shiny light everywhere are cool, but are they worth it?
zBrown

Ice climber
chingadero de chula vista
Jan 2, 2013 - 07:22pm PT
Can anyone find a problem with this reality? (the long version)

Why not make it a double feature.

John M

climber
Jan 2, 2013 - 07:22pm PT
He gives some long winded explanations for what exponential growth means and its affects in support of zero population growth. For all those who still believe that we have 500 years worth of coal as a backup to our oil, he explains why this isn't true.
Riley Wyna

Trad climber
A crack near you
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 2, 2013 - 07:24pm PT
hmm, so has anybody actually watched more than 5 minutes of the video?

The point is that because of exponential growth we will use the remaining amount of oil much faster than we have used the oil we have already consumed.( we have already used most of it) For example because of our compounded economic growth we can use more oil in the next decade than all the previous years combined - as an example.
Understand that absolutely everything about our economy is built on yearly growth!!

The math, facts and analogies build over the hour lesson so as to create a very good understanding of what is going on.
He takes into account the best estimates by geologists relating to our known oil and coal reserves as well as the best estimates on oil that is left to be found. He even doubles the reserve estimates and the math still looks very dire for us in the short term.

It sure as hell is more than a 5 minute math lesson - he knocks down many myths as they relate to coal and oil and economic growth that is not sustainable. The reason he wants us to understand the initial math is so we understand how quickly our use is doubling as our supplies dwindle.
The compound interest of yearly growth is not sustainable in anyway.

That increase in fracking oil supply shown in the graph is a few months of additional usage at our present rate of use.

Our entire worlds economy is built on fossil fuels - plastics, roads, everything - and our need for it is exponentially increasing. I see nothing that will slow this down let alone fill the void in our world economy when supplies dwindle and run out.

I have been considering the 100's of different stresses this will create on our society as well as our environment.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Jan 2, 2013 - 08:22pm PT
Nothing new since 1798.

Just another neo-malthusian.

Didn't Paul Ehrlich loose a whopper of a bet about 15-20 years ago?

Something about the price of raw materials?
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