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moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 9, 2013 - 12:56pm PT
Tony B, to suppress the evidence of extraterrestrials interacting with humans on the scale you implied would involve cooperation of various different organizations and governments of different countries. We can’t even agree on how to deal with the US debt!

When multiple explanations exist, the simplest one is usually the correct one. Consulted by William of Ockham.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Jan 9, 2013 - 01:01pm PT
TB: obvious, public experience of unusual phenomena, and then an authoritarian full-court press to downplay it which never deals with the experience realistically.

Dude, the heavily dramatic verbiage just gives you away over and over. First, there are no "authoritarians", simply people attempting to explain phenomena. The "experience" in the case of the 'Phoenix Lights' is irrelevant and unreliable. The squadron commander saying they ejected their spare flares on the other hand is verifiable both by the squadron pilots and by a flare inventory.

TB: we have picked out "prime candidates", healyje, and there's no drama involved. it seems every new issue of the astronomy journals tells us about newly discovered planets around nearby stars and how great they'd be for having life forms.

Again, the dramatic language is just killing you again and again. Astronomy journals simply point out that a percentage of the Kepler mission planets are in the 'habitable' zone, of a size roughly comparable to Earth, with a year length in the ballpark - all of which suggests, SUGGESTS, such planets are where we might best direct our resources in our search for life on other planets. None of that counts as "picked out prime candidates", but rather just common sense criteria for the kinds of planets worth further investigation.
Mighty Hiker

climber
Vancouver, B.C.
Jan 9, 2013 - 01:08pm PT
Hell, with all the resources available to modern science, they know that there's some sort of life on SuperTopo, but haven't a clue as to whether it's intelligent or not. And believe me, there's no conspiracy to hide any evidence.

There's no truth to claims that ST has been taken over by aliens based in an ark on a grassy knoll in area 51 on the Moon, and that they're using us as a proving ground for their cover-up tactics. And pay no attention to that chemtrail slackliner.
selfish man

Gym climber
Austin, TX
Jan 9, 2013 - 01:12pm PT
Feynman's Cargo Cult Science provides an accurate description of some of the opinions expressed here



http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm
moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 9, 2013 - 06:53pm PT
Excellent post, Selfish. You should post it on every “science” thread. Cargo cult science is a classic. Feynman was my role model as a scientist. Curious, inquisitive, and brutally honest. As a scientist working in the fast moving biotech industry, sometimes I had to deliver results even when my work was incomplete. When I presented those results, I always pointed to the unanswered question, even when it could hurt my career. But it never did! People appreciate integrity and honesty. Thank you Mr. Feynman.

It is much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers that could be wrong.
Tony Bird

climber
Northridge, CA
Jan 9, 2013 - 08:18pm PT
Tony B, to suppress the evidence of extraterrestrials interacting with humans on the scale you implied would involve cooperation of various different organizations and governments of different countries. We can’t even agree on how to deal with the US debt!

When multiple explanations exist, the simplest one is usually the correct one. Consulted by William of Ockham.

applying occam's razor at the time of columbus would have assured everyone that the earth is, as it obviously appears, flat.

"government conspiracy" seems to be your interpretation of what others think about this, moosedrool, and ed's as well. healyje, on the other hand, offers us a way out which is absolutely brilliant: we can't explain it, so we must discount it.

from my point of view, use of the term "conspiracy" is totally inappropriate. to conspire means to "breathe together." it implies an isolated group with criminal intent cooking up some secret agenda on its own. i don't see things happening that way at all. what i see is a hidden hand of control, applied at crucial times, but not often enough to be greatly obvious.

in the phoenix lights case, fife symington, governor of arizona at the time, earned himself the unusual honor of a simultaneous listing in the ufo "hall of fame" and "hall of shame" of the "ufo watchdog" webpage, which attempts to keep some of this honest. fife saw 'em, they were awesome, but then he had to try to joke it all away, perhaps in the medvedev manner, with an aide interrupting the press conference in an alien costume, after which all seriousness fell by the wayside. somehow, however, the ejection of spare flares did not leap to mind. that took a couple days to cook up. i'm sure the inventory sheets were not tampered with, however. that never happens in the military.

symington's flip-flop parallels that of jimmy carter, who, before he was elected president, told of personally witnessing a ufo in georgia. he made quite an issue of it in his anti-watergate, "i'll never lie to you" campaign. he promised that, if elected, he would open all the secret files concerned with ufos, and he added that he could never ridicule someone who said they had seen one because he had seen one himself. after he got into office, his tune changed within a matter of months. but did he come forward with "rational" explanations that would lay it all to rest? not at all. he tried to act embarrassed and slithered off, like any common political snake, changing the subject and hiding behind his keepers.

this is what i mean by patterns.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
-A race of corn eaters
Jan 9, 2013 - 09:53pm PT
Thomas Friedman,
I am struck by how many liberals insist on reducing carbon emissions immediately, but, on the deficit, say there is no urgency because no interest rates rises are in sight. And I am struck by how many conservatives insist we must reduce the deficit immediately, but, on climate, say there is no urgency because, so far, temperature rise has been slight.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/09/opinion/friedman-the-market-and-mother-nature.html?smid=tw-NYTimesFriedman&seid=auto&_r=0

450 ppm carbon dioxide is...
routinely cited as the tipping point where we create the conditions for out-of-control acceleration.

We're on target to surpass 450 ppm in less than 25 years.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Jan 9, 2013 - 10:32pm PT
TB: healyje, on the other hand, offers us a way out which is absolutely brilliant: we can't explain it, so we must discount it.

I do no such thing and no discounting of an incident is involved or required.

When something is 'inexplicable', it's just that: inexplicable. Simply let it remain so without the utterly desperate need for all manner of dramatic divine, alien, or conspiratorial fantasies to fill the void of what we don't know. If ever more hard data becomes available, then maybe there would be an opportunity and possibility of producing something more than wild conjecture about a given incident. To date no such data has ever become available.

The only thing that is 'discounted', is the wild and woolly conjecture folks like you demand fill the voids of what we don't know.
WBraun

climber
Jan 9, 2013 - 11:22pm PT
To date no such data has ever become available.

And none will come in the future either.

Data is for the sterile.

For those that are alive and living it's an ever changing real time dynamic orchestra that can't be captured into the lab coats bottle.

The data that gets into the bottle has already outside of it changed and morphed on.

The lab coat is left behind with the sterile dead data bewildered and lost ......
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Jan 10, 2013 - 12:50am PT
Werner, dude, whatever's in that bottle, you need to consider easing up on it.
Sierra Ledge Rat

Mountain climber
Old and Broken Down in Appalachia
Jan 10, 2013 - 01:15am PT
...they do not know and understand the theories of evolution...

They don't even understand the concept of a "theory."

You can't debate someone when they don't even have a clue about that which you are debating.

Crazy is a form of self-defense.

There is actually a book out there somewhere that recommends a "crazy" defense in dangerous situations. By crazy they mean that you learn deficate on demand, then reach into your pants, pull our your fresh, steaming pile of dung, and start playing with it (or start tossing it around). They say this tactic is proven to defuse any situation and it gets people to leave you alone.

Anyway.... I agree with you healyje
Malemute

Ice climber
the ghost
Jan 10, 2013 - 01:19am PT
I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.
George Bernard Shaw
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 10, 2013 - 02:02am PT
tony bird,
you need an explanation of everything right away, and when you don't get the explanation, you suspect something's amiss...

...lots of atmospheric phenomena we're just learning about, especially optical phenomena, seeing conditions, and the like... you see something up in the sky and you're brain says, "gee, that sure is odd" and it is, but your perception turns it into something you know about, and doesn't stop to think about it as something you don't know about...

...I don't think that photographic or video evidence would be all fake, that fact that much of it has been shown to be "fake" certainly suggests that one has to be careful. But we're not talking about the unusual occurrence that a single person in a single spot at the right time just happened to have a camera. We're talking about this stuff being available by a huge population of people... if this "phenomena" were at all common, you'd see this stuff popping up everywhere.

It is not.

You have reduced this down to "miracle status" which is to say, only a few people have subjective reports which are not reproducible. Who do we believe? or should we believe at all?

Tuck the little phenomena away, let them accumulate and perhaps someday we'll be able to put the puzzle together and get a satisfactory answer. There certainly aren't enough pieces of the puzzle out on the table to get an idea of what the picture is. Until then, it's fun to speculate, but it is probably a waste of time to get too involved in it also.


moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 10, 2013 - 11:14am PT
Hey, Tony B. Wake up!

Did you go climbing?
moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 10, 2013 - 07:23pm PT
OK I will start.

Ignorance is hurting us. The gap between the USA and the developed world is getting wider.

Younger Americans die earlier and live in poorer health than their counterparts in other developed countries, with far higher rates of death from guns, car accidents and drug addiction, according to a new analysis of health and longevity in the United States
.

Americans who have not graduated from high school die from diabetes at three times the rate of those with some college, Dr. Woolf said. In the other countries, more generous social safety nets buffer families from the health consequences of poverty, the report said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/10/health/americans-under-50-fare-poorly-on-health-measures-new-report-says.html
moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 10, 2013 - 08:05pm PT
Other bad news:

High Flu Numbers, Drug Shortages Worry US
Brown-Eyed Men May Look More Trustworthy
More Women Are Binge Drinking Than Ever
China's One-Child Policy Creates 'Little Emperors'

On the other hand:

FDA Panel Likes Janssen Diabetes Drug
Hearing loss partially reversed in noise-damaged ears of mice
'Drug holidays' beat cancer drug resistance in mice
CMS announces over 100 new ACO contracts
Pap Test Could Help Find Cancers of Uterus and Ovaries
This Facebook flu app helps you track down who got you sick

Hey, more good news than bad news!
Don Paul

Big Wall climber
Colombia, South America
Jan 10, 2013 - 09:06pm PT
In the earliest days of the world wide web, around 1998 or so, there were only some hobbyist websites and very little actual content out there. Being a geek I decided I needed my own website, and as a kind of geek-experiment I decided to put the most radical info I could on it, which was about the FBI's counterintelligence programs against subversive groups in the 1960s. The programs have been thoroughly documented, and although not ever the subject of polite conversation, it was all very factual and not a conspiracy theory at all.

Over the next 15 years though, these websites became magnets for people with paranoid schizophrenia, many of whom believe they are being persecuted by the CIA or some other government agency. I have received scores of emails from certifiable conspiracy theorists over the years, and I don't like them at all. They are seriously scary people and I've been threatened when I told them I wasnt interested. Then I became part of the conspiracy against them. One person decided I was working for the CIA because I did one case with former AG Ramsey Clark, and the guy wrote me threats every single day for months.

These people generally believe they are under surveillance all the time, even though there is nothing remotely interesting about their lives to warrant it. They have organization of 'gang stalking' victims - they believe the FBI has assigned a team of agents to follow them around. One person thought that objects in her home were being moved to new locations when she was out. As a lawyer I get people like this calling me all the time and they sound like people with real legal problems for the first 5 minutes.

To make a long story short I HATE conspiracy theorists and have no patience for them at all.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Jan 10, 2013 - 09:15pm PT
To make a long story short I HATE conspiracy theorists and have no patience for them at all.

Paul, is there a psychological profile, a make up if you will, that those people have?

what do you think, are they born, parental socialized

rural, urban, income level, education,race, male, etc?
Tony Bird

climber
Northridge, CA
Jan 10, 2013 - 09:57pm PT
Hey, Tony B. Wake up!

Did you go climbing?

actually, i prefer to ski as much as possible this time of year. freezing my fingertips at NJC a couple of weeks ago confirms this wisdom.

but i was up to other hijinx today, and if you don't mind a change of subject, i'll give you guys something a little different to laugh at me for.

my wife and i were fortunate to pull a freebie this morning and attend a rehearsal of the l.a. philharmonic. we were told they would rehearse gustav holst's "the planets", and we figured that would be all they would do. we got seats in the center balcony at disney hall. everything was happily informal, with the musicians showing up in sweatsuits and jazzercise outfits, and we settled in to listen to one of mariko's favorite pieces of music--she especially likes the movement devoted to jupiter.

the orchestra seemed a bit thin for this dazzling piece, and their first number, which i surmised to be a rather long and nondescript "mercury", left us hungering for more exciting planets. then a tall guy with very long hair strode onto the stage--kinda looked like paganini--and proceeded to play the violin. hmmm, i thought. didn't know holst featured a violin on one the planets. maybe the violin is supposed to represent the sun, shedding light on everything else.

this fellow was technically amazing, but i still wasn't recognizing any planets. they proceeded through three more unfamiliar planets, and then there was polite applause from us freebs up in the balcony, and all the musicians walked off the stage. our friend who got us in to the rehearsal, a disney hall tour guide, said they were probably taking a break. mariko hadn't heard her beloved "jupiter" yet, so we figured there were several planets to go.

then we get ahold of a shard of a program. we had just listened to eight russian folk songs arranged for orchestra and then the prokofiev violin concerto, performed by a world class artist, leonidas kavakos, on a 1724 strad.

"the planets" came after the break, the orchestra was twice as big, and it was wonderful. i'm trying to enjoy the concerto in retrospect, but it isn't easy.
Don Paul

Big Wall climber
Colombia, South America
Jan 10, 2013 - 09:57pm PT
Norton I think people with mental illness are attracted to these things, not the other way around. I guess if the CIA is mind controlling you with electromagnetic waves, to some people, this explains everything. One of their DSM-IV axes has gone exponential. You'd have to ask a professional why. The people I'm taking about, I imagine them stockpiling weapons and liable to shoot someone over a totally insane delusion.

Although I dont like to talk about real clients, I had one who was institutionalized almost his whole life, and became interested in the occult. People convinced him he had special magical powers, and this can be a comforting explanation to someone with a severe psychosis. Ive been suspicious of wicca and the occult ever since. Im sure my client wasnt the only mentally ill person to get caught up in it.

For the people obsessed with things like 9/11 was an inside job, it may seem harmless but at a certain point if you're not living in reality you might just do crazy things. That's the definition of psychosis, that you cant distinguish fantasy from reality. The first symptom is that they cling to irrational beliefs.
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