Immunizations....what has happened

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Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 03:40pm PT
I don't think we disagree on any of this, John, although we may come at it from slightly different angles.

I also had the opportunity to get a first-hand look at minority penetration into professions, as well. My classmate was Alan Bakke, so my entire time in professional school was a media zoo. Sad to say, the minorities have not fared as well as the women.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 06:00pm PT
the relationship between "Total Fertility Rate" and socio-economic status of a country's (or region's) population is not understood. A 2009 study published in Nature shows that the TFR increases at some point as the HDI (Human Development Index, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_development_index); increases.

the article can be viewed here:
http://cfs.ccpr.ucla.edu/events/ccpr-previous-seminars/ccpr-seminars-previous-years/Kohler-advances%20in%20development.pdf

in fact the study finds that, e.g. the US, Netherlands and Norway have increasing TFR recently, whereas Japan continues to have a decreasing TFR...

the various empirical economic models regarding human fertility still have a ways to go to describe the underlying causes of TFR changes...
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 31, 2012 - 06:57pm PT
From NHK

Japan's health and welfare ministry says it believes the population shrank in 2012 for the 6th year in a row.
 

The ministry says about 1.03 million people were born in Japan in 2012. It says the number of deaths topped 1.24 million, the second most in the post-war era. The ministry estimates women are having an average of 1.39 children. The ministry officials say the population is expected to continue to age and decline.


In regard to why the populations of Japan and Korea are still declining, I believe the factors are socio-cultural although economics plays a role. Having worked in family planning in Nepal, I can say that socio-cultural factors are always under emphasized by the males in charge of societies and aid programs in favor of economic explanations. Many studies have found that family planning occurs only when women are educated either formally or informally.

In Japan and Korea, we have some of the most densely populated societies on earth, with almost no natural resources and uncertain climates in the form of yearly typhoons which threaten agricultural production. Their modernization was built on exports which are no longer economically competitive so their manufacturing has been shifted to cheap labor countries. Those are the important economic reasons for declining desire for children.

I believe the more important socio-cultural reasons have to do with the liberation of women East Asian style. As a group they are highly educated and economically successful but still live in a society that is dominated by males who show little interest in modernizing social relationships. These tradition bound males are so inflexible that they refuse to change and would rather have a mail order bride from the Phillipines than deal with a modern Japanese or Korean wife. Alternatively many of them continue to live at home, cared for by their mothers and seemingly oblivious to their lonely fate after their mothers pass on.

At first, East Asian women responded by marrying as late as possible and having only one child. Now increasing numbers of them choose not to marry at all or to marry and have no children. The governments respond by upping the child allowance to $2,000 a year which is still inadequate to the real costs of a child, but more importantly, makes the women angry at the idea that their bodies are for sale. American women marched and burned their bras for equality. The East Asian women are quietly pursuing their careers and ignoring marriage and child raising as their form of protest.

Nobody over here talks about ecological reasons for limiting children. That seems to be more of a North American concern. If East Asians have excelled at anything, it is surviving in spite of limited resources. North Americans who have so much, are always talking about scarcity.

Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 31, 2012 - 07:09pm PT
And in reply to Ghost.

it is thought that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race because they will see its maximum population expansion. After 2050, looking at current rates, all countries of the world will begin to experience population decline and the total world population will go back down even if there are no catastrophes like world wide epidemics.

As the population heads upward during the next few decades however, the possibility for widespread migrations and wars also increases, in a world armed with nukes. Also large populous societies like India and China have skewed male to female ratios thanks to the cultural preference for sons. Battles over resources and widespread extinctions of animal life on this planet are certain.
Ghost

climber
A long way from where I started
Dec 31, 2012 - 08:48pm PT
Thanks Jan. I thought that was what you meant, but wasn't sure.
Donald Thompson

Trad climber
Los Angeles,CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 09:36pm PT
the relationship between "Total Fertility Rate" and socio-economic status of a country's (or region's) population is not understood. A 2009 study published in Nature shows that the TFR increases at some point as the HDI (Human Development Index,

The substance of what is obliquely referred to here is the controversial " J Curve " which has emerged in recent years due to the work of those cited in the above.
The burden of proof still remains with the J Curve proponents , as this recent study implies :

Some researchers doubt J-shaped relationship fertility and socio-economic development (Luci and Thevenon, 2010;[2] Furuoka, 2009). For example, Fumitaka Furuoka (2009) employed a piecewise regression analysis to examine the relationship between total fertility rate and human development index. However, he found no empirical evidence to support the proposition that advances in development are able to reverse declining fertility rates.
More precisely, the empirical findings of Furuoka’s 2009 study indicate that in countries with a low human development index, higher levels of HDI tend to be associated with lower fertility rates. Likewise, in countries with a high human development index, higher levels of HDI are associated with lower fertility rates, although the relationship is weaker. Furuoka's findings support the "conventional wisdom" that higher development is consistently correlated with lower overall fertility.[3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility-development_controversy

There is nothing to suggest that due to one set of correlations (J curve) that suddenly the well-established negative relationship between higher economic development and declining fertility rates is instantly invalid , resulting in an overall characterization of these analysed relationships as 'not understood'.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 09:53pm PT
There is nothing to suggest that due to one set of correlations (J curve) that suddenly the well-established negative relationship between higher economic development and declining fertility rates is instantly invalid , resulting in an overall characterization of 'not understood'.

except that there is no explanation other than the correlation, in either case, a major shortcoming of simple economic analysis that does not (or is not capable of) explaining the underlying behavior.

Jan has provided an interesting perspective that presents a picture of how choices are made in the actual setting, not abstracted to economic metrics.

My point is that the well established "negative relationship" is empirical, and as such, the domain over which it can be applied is unknown. Especially problematic as the relationship may have been established before the economic situation could develop to the point where the actual behavior is at variance with said correlation. The Nature paper points out that these inflections in the TFR occurred in 1976 in the US, and with the noisy data, it took time to see the trends. The original "well established negative relationship" was established much earlier than that.

Absent any justification for that relationship it is not surprising that it might fail to describe the current situation. It is a major failure of economic analysis that most avoid finding models that describe behavior that results in the relationship. As I quipped, parenthetically above, economics is just ecology, and if it actually acted like ecological sciences, there may be better descriptions for economic behavior. Being human ecology, economics that is, there is much room for anthropological insight also.

I'm not impressed by the statement that something is "well established" when there is no underlying treatment of the phenomena.
Donald Thompson

Trad climber
Los Angeles,CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 10:25pm PT
except that there is no explanation other than the correlation, in either case, a major shortcoming of simple economic analysis that does not (or is not capable of) explaining the underlying behavior

Okay . I'll act like the attempt to provide a plausible contradiction to the basic assertions of the demographic transition model did not occur and go off on the 'behavioral 'tangent now established.

An interesting book in this connection, actually two books, which I consider companion volumes, both written some years ago, provide some very interesting explanations, in depth ,for many of the characterological 'types' that accompany the S-shaped stages of economic development.

Escape From Freedom by Erich Fromm

The Lonely Crowd by David Riesman

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lonely_Crowd

The Wikipedia piece does not do justice to Riesman's excellent analysis and should be rewritten.

I'm not impressed by the statement that something is "well established" when there is no underlying treatment of the phenomena.

I used the term "well-established " as descriptive . If what I referred to was not "well established " one could not readily locate such references:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic-economic_paradox

Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 10:46pm PT
I'll act like the attempt to provide a plausible contradiction to the basic assertions of the demographic transition model

explain the model...

and especially how your references above, describing the national character, which is to say mostly about male characters, relate to reproduction which requires understanding male/female relationships and that female character as an important piece of the puzzle
Donald Thompson

Trad climber
Los Angeles,CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 10:54pm PT
Mr. Hartouni:
You've checkmated me again.
And on this last hour of the year.

Happy New Year.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 11:05pm PT
actually I am interested in learning...
playing chess is something I stopped doing many years ago.

Have a great new year's eve, and comeback with some thoughts on how such a model might work... and thanks for the references...
Donald Thompson

Trad climber
Los Angeles,CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 11:07pm PT
I'll do that and look forward to your responses.
Thanks.

DT
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 12:02am PT
here is a fun article to read...
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Laissez-Faire_In_Popn/L_F_in_Population.html

it has as it's basis the economic considerations of the parents in deciding to have children...
Donald Thompson

Trad climber
Los Angeles,CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 12:43am PT
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=pzxREH08EkI&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DpzxREH08EkI
Degaine

climber
Jan 1, 2013 - 02:59am PT
Here are a couple of great presentations by Hans Rosling regarding future world population growth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg

http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.html


To summarize, if trends continue, the developing world continues to modernize and infant mortality rates drop, the world will reach 9 billion people in 2050 won't grow any further from there.

But watch the videos, he explains it much better.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 1, 2013 - 04:13am PT
From the bottom video by Hans Rosling:

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child.

The number one factor for this to have happened was the decline in infant mortality which was due in largest part to Immunizations !
Riley Wyna

Trad climber
A crack near you
Jan 1, 2013 - 06:39am PT
That video really does say it all
The seismic waves of energy needs will touch and destroy everything.
We will and already do justify any environmental destruction because of this basic math and I don't seee how any of the rest of this really matters?
Our future reality is war..
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jan 1, 2013 - 03:03pm PT
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pakistan-charity-workers-shot-dead/story-e6frg6so-1226546441485

GUNMEN on motorcycles sprayed a van carrying employees from a community centre with bullets, killing five female teachers and two aid workers, but sparing a child they took out of the vehicle before opening fire.

The director of the group that the seven worked for says he suspects it may have been the latest in a series of attacks targeting anti-polio efforts in Pakistan. Some militants oppose the vaccination campaigns, accusing health workers of acting as spies for the US and alleging the vaccine is intended to make Muslim children sterile.
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 2, 2013 - 05:52pm PT


Well...

I got the flu shot...

and for the past six days I've been in bed, sick as FUK!!!...

And I mean, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY sick as FUK!!!...

So many symptoms...

Dr's appointment in the morning...

Son almost 911'd me earlier...

Finally ate a little for the first time and feeling slightly better...

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jan 2, 2013 - 06:47pm PT
Well one thing is for sure. It is not due to the shot giving you an infection of the flu. Not enough time between injection and onset of symptoms.

Sucks though no matter what has hit you.

Get well soon Locker

oh and















































YER GUNNA DIE!
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