Immunizations....what has happened

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Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Original Post - Dec 29, 2012 - 08:21pm PT
There seems to be recurrent discussion and interest in immunizations, their safety and use.

I've posted about this before, but there is a remarkable thing happening, which is the eradication of polio effort.

This has been due soley to the use of vaccines.

the first human disease eliminated, of course, was smallpox.

This year, there were only 215 cases IN THE WORLD. It is circulating in only three countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria. There were only 5 cases that occurred in one other country, exported from the three.

Contrast this with last year: 604 in the world, with 309 cases having broken out of the endemic countries into 13 other countries.

The smaller the number, the easier it is to corral the remaining cases.
We are really approaching the end of another disease, forever.
Mighty Hiker

climber
Vancouver, B.C.
Dec 29, 2012 - 08:27pm PT
It may be a while before they eradicate polio from those countries. Geographic, economic and political problems, and this:

Gunmen shot dead six health workers on an anti-polio drive in a string of attacks in Pakistan over 24 hours, officials said on Tuesday, raising fears for the future of efforts to eradicate the crippling disease in one of its last strongholds.

It was not clear who was behind the shootings, but Taliban insurgents have repeatedly denounced the vaccination campaign as a Western plot. The campaign aims to wipe out polio in one of the last three countries where it is endemic.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/six-polio-health-workers-killed-in-string-of-attacks-in-pakistan/article6504738/

Fundamental religion of all kinds never seems comfortable with science. Not to mention the anti-science crowd who promote falsehoods about the risks of routine vaccinations.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 08:32pm PT
True, MH, although this violence was undoubtedly abetted by the astonishing foolish decision of the CIA to use a vaccine-worker cover to go to Osama bin Laden's compound. When this became known, all vaccine workers were put at risk, as well as the world-wide effort.

Even with this problem, there remains great progress in that country this year, from 181 cases to 57.

There is also another disease that is nearing the path to eradication:
Guinea Worm infection.
Down to under a thousand world-wide cases.

http://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/en/
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Dec 29, 2012 - 08:52pm PT
this violence was undoubtedly abetted by the astonishing foolish decision of the CIA to use a vaccine-worker

The violence against vaccine workers in the Pak tribal areas goes back at least a dozen years.

There's the "Zionist sterilization plot" myth coupled with an aversion to anyone coming in from the outside, especially if connected to the central govt. in some way.

It took many years to get an effective vaccine program in N Africa against Muslim resistance as well.

Place the blame where it lies.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Dec 29, 2012 - 08:57pm PT
The biggest problem we face is over population. Global warming, famine, ehtnic cleansing, deforestation, acceleration in vanishing species are all tied to population growth.
How about a vaccine that would make people impotent after they have produced replacements for themselves.
Kidding.....sort of.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 09:00pm PT
Another disease that has been dramatically affected by immunization, is invasive pneumococcal disease, which is particularly an affliction of infants and the elderly.

A vaccine was introduced in 2000 to be given to children. What happened was astonishing: By the end of 2001, in children under 2 years old, the incidence of the disease was reduced by 69%! Very interesting, there was also a reduction in adults by 30-some %, even tho adults WERE NOT IMMUNIZED.

"At the end of 2004, all-cause pneumonia admission rates had declined by 39% (95% CI 22-52) for children younger than 2 years, who were the target population of the vaccination programme."

"During the 8 study years, 10,659 (2%) children younger than 2 years admitted with pneumonia were coded as having pneumococcal disease; these rates declined by 65%"

This has been replicated in country after country.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 09:03pm PT
TGT, you apparently don't know people who work in the vaccine field, but I do. The level of fear created among workers because of the CIA action cannot be overstated. What it did was VERIFY the rumors that it took years to overcome.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 09:08pm PT
Donini, I'm with you, even tongue in cheek.

Of interest, 50% of all pregnancies in the US are not desired, so simply facitiliting what people actually want will have a huge impact on population.

I'm writing an article right now, about the consequences of a study carried out in Detroit, where they took a thousand women in poverty, and made birth control easily available and free, then watch to see what happened over the following 3 years. What happened was a 80% reduction in birth rate, compared with similar groups in that city, state, and the country as a whole.

So all we have to do, is let people do what they actually want to do, and it will have a very big effect on population with time.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 29, 2012 - 10:36pm PT
Not sure what Donini has against sex. You can make people sterile without making them impotent.
In fact, sterilization after the desired number of children is the most common form
of contraception in the developing world.

It surely is amazing to see the drops in infant mortality in the developing world thanks to immunization.
This is important because studies have shown parents do lower the number of children they want to have
when they see that infant mortality declines. They make this connection even when they are totally illiterate.
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Dec 29, 2012 - 10:42pm PT

But my child will be autistic if he gets vaccinated!!!!
Ricky D

Trad climber
Sierra Westside
Dec 29, 2012 - 10:58pm PT
But my child will be autistic if he gets vaccinated!!!!

No - your child will be autistic because you watch Fox News.

Not only that - but because you once shopped at Walmart - the little f*#kers gonna have a peanut allergy too!

An don't even get me started about the obesity and diabetes factor from eating at Applebee's last summer!
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 08:02pm PT
From the medical site Medscape:


Hi. My name is Paul Offit. I am talking to you today from the Vaccination Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

Today is December 21, 2012, a day that according to the Mayan calendar should mark the end of the world as we know it. Speaking of ancient beliefs that aren't founded on good science, I thought it would be of interest to talk about a paper that appeared in the journal Pediatrics [1] this week, about thimerosal in vaccines.

Many of you might wonder why we are still talking about this. Hasn't this issue been resolved? Yes, it has, but it has come up again because of an effort by antivaccine groups that have lobbied the World Health Organization and other global health groups to try and get thimerosal out of vaccines given to infants and young children in the developing world -- something that would be disastrous.

In the late 1990s, as children began to receive more and more vaccines in the United States, they also received more and more thimerosal, an ethyl mercury-containing preservative in vaccines. Concern was expressed at the time that this may put children at risk. Mercury at high doses can cause harm, but the question was whether mercury in the form of ethyl mercury, given at much lower doses, could cause harm. This caused a great deal of concern in the late 1990s. As a consequence, there was a real effort to get thimerosal out of vaccines given to infants and very young children.

Since that time we have learned, in a series of 7 studies, that children who received thimerosal-containing vaccines compared with children who received the same vaccines without thimerosal are not at greater risk for neurodevelopmental problems, including autism or even subtle signs of mercury toxicity. In the late 1990s, a handful of children died of hepatitis B because the health centers in which they were born were so scared of thimerosal, which had been given a "scarlet letter," that they abandoned their hepatitis immunization program -- even for children who were born to mothers who had hepatitis B.

At the time, this action was considered a precaution: Let's get thimerosal out of vaccines until we learn more about thimerosal. Children died as a result; therefore, we didn't follow a precautionary principle that argues to do something to avoid harm, but in fact we caused harm. This new article is putting forward the idea that we should not make the same mistake, because now we know that the level of thimerosal in vaccines doesn't cause harm. If it is decided by the World Health Organization or other global health agencies to remove thimerosal from vaccines, it would mean using single-dose vials instead of multidose vials, which makes vaccines much more expensive for countries that already can't afford them.

If we were to do this, instead of a handful of children dying, hundreds or thousands of children will die. This paper is saying, "Mea culpa; let's not make the same mistake again." Thank you very much for your attention and happy holidays.

Tami

Social climber
Canada
Dec 30, 2012 - 08:38pm PT
Ken I appreciate what you are promoting here. I had my kids immunized when they were little.

But I just can't buy into this thread. It's more stuff on the internet.

If there is no dissent and we all roll up our sleeves and accept anything "Science" has to offer, then what do we fully open ourselves up to? It's an open-ended question with no real answer.

Thanks for allowing dissent on this forum !!!







Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 08:48pm PT
Tami, it's easy for me.....I've spent my life training in this, treating some of the diseases involved and seeing what happens with them.

What I find supremely ironic is that my profession comes in for a raft of sh*t, much of it deserved, for not spending sufficient time on *prevention* of disease, but concentrating on treating it.

And yet....and yet.....that is exactly what we are talking about here....prevention.

It would be nice if we could prevent all disease by dietary means, and by excercising. I'm not sure we are ready to force people to do either. Additionally, I think we live FAR too close together, in a way that facilitates the spread of infection diseases. Unless we are willing to kill off 3/4 of the population, and all go and live on farms, that's not going to change.

We have to deal with what we face today.

Tami, I'm not particularly fond of the concept of coercing people to do things. Whether it is good diet, or other health practices that protect the health of the community as a whole.

I'm much more in favor of talking about things, in a setting where the possibility of good information flow might exist.
Mighty Hiker

climber
Vancouver, B.C.
Dec 30, 2012 - 08:52pm PT
//Unless we are willing to kill off 3/4 of the population, and all go and live on farms, that's not going to change.//

Except that so many human diseases originate in herd animals...
Tami

Social climber
Canada
Dec 30, 2012 - 08:58pm PT
I'm no depopulationist that's fer sure. I agree with you we live in too-tight proximity to one another. Plagues ( bubonic & otherwise ) were able to take advantage of this human situation in the past.

I also think people are looking too far outside themselves for answers to their problems. As you say, people need to be smart with what they put into their bodies. But some people think KFC is good for you. Sheesh.

Mostly what I disagree with is the idea that Science is somehow all-powerful and dissenting viewpoints are tin-foil hat crazies. I agree with neither the all-powerful nor the tin foil ( although it's good for wrappin' fish on the bbq to keep it moist........... )



Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 30, 2012 - 09:26pm PT
If more and more people in First World countries like the U.S. refuse to vaccinate their children, then eventually we will have an epidemic that kills a lot of kids. Ironically, First World countries need more children yet put theirs at risk while Third World Countries are grateful for the chance to be vaccinated and will have more that survive. Evolution at work but in a strange way.

Meanwhile CDC is telling us that this is going to be a particularly bad flu season which has in fact begun early this year.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 09:43pm PT
//Unless we are willing to kill off 3/4 of the population, and all go and live on farms, that's not going to change.//

Except that so many human diseases originate in herd animals...

Well, free-range, of course. :)
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 09:49pm PT
Jan, the issue with first world contries needing more children is contrived. It only seems so, because we have built infrastructure that is dependent upon constant growth.

It should be obvious that model must eventually fail. But in the meantime, it creates pressures that are unsustainable. Malthus was right. Because he wasn't right in the correct timescale is irrelevant.

In the meantime, we have to do things, or we will be overtaken by events.
There was a time when shortage of food was a real possibility in this country, although it seems hard to believe now. But that problem will seem to be simple in contrast to others.

Water seems to be a convergent factor.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 30, 2012 - 09:54pm PT
It's true we all need just balanced replacement growth or diminished populations but none of us can get it right. Some societies have too many old, others too many young, while an increasing number have too many males compared to females. It's predicted that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race. If we survive that then population all over the world will decline and the human race might have a future.

The other part of the equation is that developed countries, but especially America use so many resources. One American consumes as much as ten or more in a less developed society.
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Dec 30, 2012 - 10:27pm PT

Ricky D--I was being sarcastic. . .
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 12:43am PT
Here is a rather newer, and controversial, vaccine, and it's impact:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20139221

vaccination was up to 100% effective in reducing the risk of HPV16/18-related high-grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal lesions and of HPV6/11-related genital warts.

High-coverage HPV vaccination programs among adolescents and young women may result in a rapid reduction of genital warts, cervical cytological abnormalities, and diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In the longer term, substantial reductions in the rates of cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers may follow.


This is a big deal, because we are talking about a very real possibility of the first step in the eradication of one type of cancer.

It's too early to know that is actually the case, as it takes more years for these cancers to develop, so we have to follow the groups for more years.

Whats sad is the women who will have lost their chance to have these cancers potentially totally eliminated from their lives.

Believe it or not, this is what we actually work towards in medicine.
Ghost

climber
A long way from where I started
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:47am PT
It's predicted that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race.

Hi Jan -- can you elaborate on that? We have developed so many ways to endanger ourselves, and I'm curious about which one(s) you're thinking of here.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
-A race of corn eaters
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:52am PT
How about a vaccine that would make people impotent after they have produced replacements for themselves.

Impotent?! Was that something of a freudian slip? lol!

How about merely non-fertile? I could go for that.

re: over-population problem

In the future, maybe not too far off, and after a bout or two of malthusian pressure and its uglies, we might just wise up enough to employ the following solution to the over-population problem: post-replacement sterilization (vasectomy, eg, or tubal ligation) in exchange for continued health care credits. What's not to like with this (reasonable) solution given the alternatives. Quid pro quo. Win win.

Ultimately, there's really only two choices when malthusian pressure red lines: fight it out in natural selection terms or manage the reproduction (fairly in some way in the eyes of the community; via "impotence," haha, no, sterilization after replacement)
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 12:10pm PT
Ultimately, there's really only two choices when malthusian pressure red lines: fight it out in natural selection terms or manage the reproduction (fairly in some way in the eyes of the community; via "impotence," haha, no, sterilization after replacement)

when I first read this, I read this as TEAMS.

I like the idea of being on the climbers team!
Jebus H Bomz

climber
Reno, Nuh VAAAA duh
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:18pm PT
No flu for me yet this season, but I've had some lingering super cold for the past 3-4 weeks. Yechh! Cold vaccine, bitches! STAT!
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:59pm PT
Jan, the issue with first world countries needing more children is contrived. It only seems so, because we have built infrastructure that is dependent upon constant growth.

Hold the calls, we have a winner! The "infrastructure," though, is mostly fiscal, not physical, constructs. Any elaboration probably belongs in the "Republicans" thread.

Good topic, Ken. The hostility toward immunization always amazes me, but then the nature of human risk aversion amazes me too. We worry about outcomes with a miniscule probability (or in the case of almost all immunization, zero established probability), and in the process accept avoidable risk of worse outcomes with a significant probability.

John
new world order2

climber
Dec 31, 2012 - 01:19pm PT
In the future, maybe not too far off, and after a bout or two of malthusian pressure and its uglies, we might just wise up enough to employ the following solution to the over-population problem: post-replacement sterilization (vasectomy, eg, or tubal ligation) in exchange for continued health care credits.

^^^This will become a reality, "not too far off".

You guys will love what's in store for us! Forced abortion, euthanasia, and sterilization. Add to that, mandating those allowed to breed, and those who should not. Because we sheeple are the terrorists of humanity, the environment, and so must be culled. But some sheeple deserve to live more than others. Who decides? Our loving government, of course!

So goes the new world order.

Bah-ah-ah-ah.....
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:06pm PT
nwo2 makes a point which will most likely determine our fate, that is, while we see that overpopulation is a predictable problem, we have no way of preventing it by our own decisions.

The ecological concept of "carrying capacity" is essentially one of energy conservation, and it is governed by thermodynamics. Biological systems in all their features are not well described by thermodynamics since they represent a non-equilibrium state locally, that is, they scavenge energy to maintain biological order. The atmosphere of the Earth, for instance, is decidedly non-equilibrium (this was Lovelock's insight which eventually lead to the Gaia hypothesis, but starts as a NASA study of "signatures" of life on other planets).

At some point, the energy demands of human life will exceed the ecosystems ability to produce it. This is easiest to see in our fossil fuel use, which we are expending at a very high rate. Interestingly, the alteration of the climate by CO2 emissions due to that fuel use might make the environment unable to support other human energy needs, like food production.

Energy use also requires water, and we are using fossil water resources at an increasingly high rate too. We cannot produce energy without water, it is required in nuclear power plants as well as for crops of plants and animals.

Thermodynamics also limits the efficiencies with which we can utilize these energy resources, so there is a limit to our ability to realize efficiencies, and not only that, but the efficiencies have to be applied to all of the elements of the process. So, for instance, the apparent efficiency of solar-power when we only look at the end use on our roofs is offset by the very inefficient production, distribution, installation, decommissioning and deconstruction steps of the process.

Increased efficiencies and the utilization of local climatic and geophysical "resources" can greatly reduce energy need, but not at an exponential rate, which is how population grows. It is true no matter how slow that rate of growth is, put simply, the more people you have, the more people reproduction you have.

It is a matter of supreme individual liberty that we hold the individual responsible for making their own reproductive choices. It is a central aspect of our behavior that we seek to reproduce. Obviously these two central characters of our being lead to the uncontrolled growth of population. Preserving both of these characters means that the limits to population growth would only the inability of the ecosystem to support that growth.

We can see it coming, it is doubtful that we can do anything about it in an organized manner.

Educating people, giving them choices and letting them decide is probably the only hope. Unfortunately there is an economic stake here, too, with many interests weighing in to insure their ox is not gored in the process. The most rudimentary understanding of physics, chemistry, biology, earth science and mathematics is needed to understand the concept of limits and carrying capacity, yet apparently educated people make the most absurd statements in an authoritative manner (especially economists, who are unaware that they are a subfield of ecology).

Allowing people to make choices, especially reproductive choices, goes hand-in-glove with the topic of the OP, the increased ability to successfully raise your offspring to adulthood. That along with access to contraception for both partners makes conception a choice rather than a fate. Obviously there are many social issues at play here, but once again, allowing this to be a matter of individual choice is paramount, freeing the individual from those social constraints has to be a goal.

There is contained here the classic collaboration between the individual and the society in which the individual lives. If there is a "new world order" it is in the fact that our neighborhood actions effect the globe as a whole, the consequences of our choices are borne not just by our community near by, but by the entire planet.

And so we must learn, somehow, to act as a planet.

There are living things on the planet that are also essential for our existence, and them lacking a voice in this debate must be represented by those of us who understand the consequences of our choices on that voiceless, but essential, domain.

At times I am optimistic, but mostly I am pessimistic, about humans rising to this challenge. Lately I have come to view the human condition in terms of the myths given to us from the Greeks, that of Cassandra... our scientific knowledge the gift of prophecy, but in a world not willing to accept that knowledge and act on it. As Cassandra is a figure of the epic tradition and of tragedy, so, fittingly, would this play out in human history.

I'm not saying that "science" should be accepted unthoughtfully, rather all along I've advocated for and aided in educating people on science, in my mind the more people understand the better they are prepared to make those individual decisions that will be required to be made. Science is both an individual and a societal enterprise, and is best performed with all the bits laid bare. But even that is contentious, as the "immunizations debate" illustrates.

Tami

Social climber
Canada
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:27pm PT
Educate a woman, you educate a family.

Life isn't game theory.Humans are cooperative organisms; individually we are pretty lame. In a group we are more dangerous then rats. But if rats had opposing thumbs? Hmmmm.......




Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 02:32pm PT
Ed, a remarkable discussion.

I agree, that we probably do not make these decisions "collectively".

As of right now, we do not have a replacement fertility rate in place. We only continue to grow, due to immigration.

If it were up to me, I think there is a national discussion that needs to take place. Personally, I'd aim for a "replacement" level at this point, and no more. 30 years from now, I'd like to see some shrinkage, but there need to be institutional changes for that to work without chaos in our society.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 02:40pm PT
Tami, I think there has been an educational shift in this country that no one understands the meaning of: 60% of college graduates are now women.

When you consider where we were 100 years ago, that is astonishing.

Even with the cultural stigma against women being educated, even more so.

60 of the 100 members of the entering class of my medical school this year are women. I'll grant that mine is progressive, but even so, an amazing advancement. 30 years ago, it was 28 out of 100, and that was considered radical.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
-A race of corn eaters
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:40pm PT
especially economists, who are unaware that they are a subfield of ecology

Nice to see you're on board with this.

.....

Oh no...
Life isn't game theory.

Life IS game theory. Meaning that it plays out according to game theory - if not as an economist defines it, then in terms of how an astute ecologist defines it - in terms of game rules, players, strategies (including cooperation, deceit, freeriding, penalty or punishment, teaming up), objectives, moves, player strengths and skills, winning and losing, winners and losers.

Suggest (1) reading NonZero, by Robert Wright, for starters, for a fuller treatment (and not anything in a more traditional vein, esp from an economist or mathematician writing in the abstract); (2) watching Survivor (the reality show) as a most excellent metaphor and microcosm of it.

Humans are cooperative organisms...

Of course. Cooperation is essential to success in the game of life (described by "game theory" in evolutionary eco terms) when played at more complex levels - heart cells to honey bees to humans.

.....

Natural selection TEAMS - might come down to that! :)
hb81

climber
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:47pm PT


Watch this video to further understand what Ed has outlined above.
It starts out a bit dry but it's well worth watching the whole thing.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 03:08pm PT
Ken,

You don't even need to got back 100 years. When I was an undergrad at Berkeley from 1969-73, there were 1.8 males for each female student, and the faculty male-to-female ratio in the departments in which I studied was closer to 99%. Even in law school at UCLA in the late 70's, there were at least twice as many men as women, and the school had to go out of its way to attract those women.

Unfortunately, at the high school where my daughter was teaching, there were still plenty of 14-to-16-year-olds intentionally getting pregnant. The rise in female education has, sad to say, not led to lifestyle changes in that community. Instead it simply expanded the gap between the haves and have nots. How do we reach the sorts of disadvantaged (economically, sociologically, and parentally) students my daughter encounters?

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 04:39pm PT
John, we won't do it.

The women will do it, just as they have accomplished what has taken place. It didn't happen because of what men did, it happened because of what women made happen.

Those girls don't trust us, and they shouldn't. They have good reason not to (meaning as a group, not individuals).
Batrock

Trad climber
Burbank
Dec 31, 2012 - 05:57pm PT
Has anyone read Ecoscience by John P Holdren and Paul R Erlich? It has some interesting solutions to population control. I have been trying to upload some pages from the book but they wind up upside down when download it from my Ipad. I'll try it tomorrow when i get home tomorrow, unless you want to try and read it standing on your head.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 06:19pm PT
I agree, Ken. I find it interesting to have been an observer of the women's movement over the years. I have no brothers, but I am an older brother of sisters. I have two (grown) daughters and no sons, so I'm not exactly disinterested in this topic.

It was my contention while at Berkeley that the biggest oppressors of women in the world may have been men, but the biggest oppressors of women in the United States were other women. Sad to say, I'm not sure that's changed for the most disadvantaged women. According to my daughter, the high schoolers dealt with were getting their ideas to get pregnant (and the acceptance of such plans) from their female friends and family.

When I was in high school in the 1960's, the segment of the U.S. population with the lowest birthrate was college educated Mexican-Americans. The portion of Fresno County's population with the highest teenage pregnancy rates now are probably Mexican Americans who did not (or will not) graduate from high school, so I'm hoping that you're right about how increased education for women can turn this problem around.

I wouldn't entirely discount the role of men, though. I know I was instrumental in getting my sister into the legal profession, and, as a law professor, encouraged many women to go into areas of the law that were traditionally male bastions, with much success. Ultimately, though, I think the social guidance (and pressure) from other women holds our best hope.

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 06:40pm PT
I don't think we disagree on any of this, John, although we may come at it from slightly different angles.

I also had the opportunity to get a first-hand look at minority penetration into professions, as well. My classmate was Alan Bakke, so my entire time in professional school was a media zoo. Sad to say, the minorities have not fared as well as the women.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 09:00pm PT
the relationship between "Total Fertility Rate" and socio-economic status of a country's (or region's) population is not understood. A 2009 study published in Nature shows that the TFR increases at some point as the HDI (Human Development Index, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_development_index); increases.

the article can be viewed here:
http://cfs.ccpr.ucla.edu/events/ccpr-previous-seminars/ccpr-seminars-previous-years/Kohler-advances%20in%20development.pdf

in fact the study finds that, e.g. the US, Netherlands and Norway have increasing TFR recently, whereas Japan continues to have a decreasing TFR...

the various empirical economic models regarding human fertility still have a ways to go to describe the underlying causes of TFR changes...
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 31, 2012 - 09:57pm PT
From NHK

Japan's health and welfare ministry says it believes the population shrank in 2012 for the 6th year in a row.
 

The ministry says about 1.03 million people were born in Japan in 2012. It says the number of deaths topped 1.24 million, the second most in the post-war era. The ministry estimates women are having an average of 1.39 children. The ministry officials say the population is expected to continue to age and decline.


In regard to why the populations of Japan and Korea are still declining, I believe the factors are socio-cultural although economics plays a role. Having worked in family planning in Nepal, I can say that socio-cultural factors are always under emphasized by the males in charge of societies and aid programs in favor of economic explanations. Many studies have found that family planning occurs only when women are educated either formally or informally.

In Japan and Korea, we have some of the most densely populated societies on earth, with almost no natural resources and uncertain climates in the form of yearly typhoons which threaten agricultural production. Their modernization was built on exports which are no longer economically competitive so their manufacturing has been shifted to cheap labor countries. Those are the important economic reasons for declining desire for children.

I believe the more important socio-cultural reasons have to do with the liberation of women East Asian style. As a group they are highly educated and economically successful but still live in a society that is dominated by males who show little interest in modernizing social relationships. These tradition bound males are so inflexible that they refuse to change and would rather have a mail order bride from the Phillipines than deal with a modern Japanese or Korean wife. Alternatively many of them continue to live at home, cared for by their mothers and seemingly oblivious to their lonely fate after their mothers pass on.

At first, East Asian women responded by marrying as late as possible and having only one child. Now increasing numbers of them choose not to marry at all or to marry and have no children. The governments respond by upping the child allowance to $2,000 a year which is still inadequate to the real costs of a child, but more importantly, makes the women angry at the idea that their bodies are for sale. American women marched and burned their bras for equality. The East Asian women are quietly pursuing their careers and ignoring marriage and child raising as their form of protest.

Nobody over here talks about ecological reasons for limiting children. That seems to be more of a North American concern. If East Asians have excelled at anything, it is surviving in spite of limited resources. North Americans who have so much, are always talking about scarcity.

Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 31, 2012 - 10:09pm PT
And in reply to Ghost.

it is thought that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race because they will see its maximum population expansion. After 2050, looking at current rates, all countries of the world will begin to experience population decline and the total world population will go back down even if there are no catastrophes like world wide epidemics.

As the population heads upward during the next few decades however, the possibility for widespread migrations and wars also increases, in a world armed with nukes. Also large populous societies like India and China have skewed male to female ratios thanks to the cultural preference for sons. Battles over resources and widespread extinctions of animal life on this planet are certain.
Ghost

climber
A long way from where I started
Dec 31, 2012 - 11:48pm PT
Thanks Jan. I thought that was what you meant, but wasn't sure.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 12:53am PT
There is nothing to suggest that due to one set of correlations (J curve) that suddenly the well-established negative relationship between higher economic development and declining fertility rates is instantly invalid , resulting in an overall characterization of 'not understood'.

except that there is no explanation other than the correlation, in either case, a major shortcoming of simple economic analysis that does not (or is not capable of) explaining the underlying behavior.

Jan has provided an interesting perspective that presents a picture of how choices are made in the actual setting, not abstracted to economic metrics.

My point is that the well established "negative relationship" is empirical, and as such, the domain over which it can be applied is unknown. Especially problematic as the relationship may have been established before the economic situation could develop to the point where the actual behavior is at variance with said correlation. The Nature paper points out that these inflections in the TFR occurred in 1976 in the US, and with the noisy data, it took time to see the trends. The original "well established negative relationship" was established much earlier than that.

Absent any justification for that relationship it is not surprising that it might fail to describe the current situation. It is a major failure of economic analysis that most avoid finding models that describe behavior that results in the relationship. As I quipped, parenthetically above, economics is just ecology, and if it actually acted like ecological sciences, there may be better descriptions for economic behavior. Being human ecology, economics that is, there is much room for anthropological insight also.

I'm not impressed by the statement that something is "well established" when there is no underlying treatment of the phenomena.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 01:46am PT
I'll act like the attempt to provide a plausible contradiction to the basic assertions of the demographic transition model

explain the model...

and especially how your references above, describing the national character, which is to say mostly about male characters, relate to reproduction which requires understanding male/female relationships and that female character as an important piece of the puzzle
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 02:05am PT
actually I am interested in learning...
playing chess is something I stopped doing many years ago.

Have a great new year's eve, and comeback with some thoughts on how such a model might work... and thanks for the references...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 03:02am PT
here is a fun article to read...
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Laissez-Faire_In_Popn/L_F_in_Population.html

it has as it's basis the economic considerations of the parents in deciding to have children...
Degaine

climber
Jan 1, 2013 - 05:59am PT
Here are a couple of great presentations by Hans Rosling regarding future world population growth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg

http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.html


To summarize, if trends continue, the developing world continues to modernize and infant mortality rates drop, the world will reach 9 billion people in 2050 won't grow any further from there.

But watch the videos, he explains it much better.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 1, 2013 - 07:13am PT
From the bottom video by Hans Rosling:

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child.

The number one factor for this to have happened was the decline in infant mortality which was due in largest part to Immunizations !
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jan 1, 2013 - 06:03pm PT
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pakistan-charity-workers-shot-dead/story-e6frg6so-1226546441485

GUNMEN on motorcycles sprayed a van carrying employees from a community centre with bullets, killing five female teachers and two aid workers, but sparing a child they took out of the vehicle before opening fire.

The director of the group that the seven worked for says he suspects it may have been the latest in a series of attacks targeting anti-polio efforts in Pakistan. Some militants oppose the vaccination campaigns, accusing health workers of acting as spies for the US and alleging the vaccine is intended to make Muslim children sterile.
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 2, 2013 - 08:52pm PT


Well...

I got the flu shot...

and for the past six days I've been in bed, sick as FUK!!!...

And I mean, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY sick as FUK!!!...

So many symptoms...

Dr's appointment in the morning...

Son almost 911'd me earlier...

Finally ate a little for the first time and feeling slightly better...

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jan 2, 2013 - 09:47pm PT
Well one thing is for sure. It is not due to the shot giving you an infection of the flu. Not enough time between injection and onset of symptoms.

Sucks though no matter what has hit you.

Get well soon Locker

oh and















































YER GUNNA DIE!
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Jan 2, 2013 - 09:49pm PT
Immunizations are the current rage in Pakistan.
Anastasia

climber
InLOVEwithAris.
Jan 2, 2013 - 10:02pm PT
Aristides has all his shots up to date and even got a flu shot. I have never been afraid of immunizations and... I am sure my husband who deeply loves his son and knows medicine will not risk his own kid. I think people afraid of immunizations are ignorant, have never seen the diseases the kids are being protected from, really have no clue what to really be afraid of. I honestly want to send each one of them to parts of the world where these "scary" immunizations are not practiced. I bet they will change their opinions.

AFS
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:14pm PT


"I think people afraid of immunizations are ignorant"...

Ditto!!!...

Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:28pm PT
Feel better Locker.

I have a lot of friends who are SICK right now. Sick. As. Dogs.

Every one of them (except you) did not get their flu shot. It takes two weeks for the immunization to take effect which can be a long time with a lot of carriers around.
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 3, 2013 - 12:06am PT

I got my flu shot well over a month ago...

Assuming that it is the flu that I have (I'll know for sure tomorrow), I can only imagine how much worse I might be had I not taken it...

Last year I didn't take it and I was down and out for 16 straight days and lost approx 25lbs...



locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 3, 2013 - 12:15am PT

A couple of odd ones to me...

Constant high heart rate of 110bpm...

and a fever that goes away, then comes back...

Currently it is back and I am fuking FRYING right now...


EDITED:

Top it off with super shortness of breath and what you get is one sick MoFo...

LOL!!!...





MisterE

Social climber
Jan 3, 2013 - 01:08am PT
An artistic representation of the net effect of rampant breeding combined with immunization of humans from all diseases and marginal food/water sources:

Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Jan 3, 2013 - 01:11am PT
Glad you'll be to the doc tomorrow Locker! Do take care of yourself! To lose 25 pounds, you must have cut off a leg.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 3, 2013 - 02:26pm PT
I don't mind getting immunizations...



























































Credit: dirtbag
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:44am PT
This is really hard for me to understand.

Helath care professionals working in an ICU unit who don't want to get flu shots?!
In this case, they were fired over the issue.

http://news.yahoo.com/nurses-fired-refusing-flu-shot-224637902--abc-news-health.html
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 5, 2013 - 02:45am PT
2012 ends with fewest wild polio cases ever: The year ended with the fewest children paralyzed by wild polio virus, in the fewest places, in history. Two hundred and eighteen wild polio cases have been reported so far for 2012 – a greater than 60% reduction from 2011. Over the year, through the tireless dedication of the on-the-ground heroes of polio eradication, more than 2 billion doses of vaccine were distributed to 429 million children around the world.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2013 - 12:53pm PT
here is an interesting article on a survey of the human microbiome...

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7402/full/nature11234.html

the function of these microbes and virus are not fully understood, and their influence on our lives are only slightly understood.

locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 01:04pm PT


"To lose 25 pounds, you must have cut off a leg."...

Crimps...

Didn't loose 25lbs this time out...

Only 9 (So far)...

When I lost the 25, I weighed 150 down to 125...

But I'm not to get to that heavy anymore...

Dr want's me around 140...

Currently 128...
new world order2

climber
Jan 5, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
This is really hard for me to understand.

Helath care professionals working in the ICU unit who don't want to get flu shots?!
In this case, they were fired over the issue.

It's because they know of the poison within some vaccinations.

locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 01:20pm PT

"It's because they know of the poison within some vaccinations."...

And you KNOW this to be a FACT???...

Fuking RIGHT!!!...

new world order2

climber
Jan 5, 2013 - 01:22pm PT
Locker, do you believe everything the medical cartel and government tell you?

Sad, that. You've taken the blue pill.
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 01:31pm PT

"Locker, do you believe everything the medical cartel and government tell you?"...

I DON'T!!!...

But I DO believe SANE people way more than internet NUTS!!!...

LOL!!!...




EDITED:

"Sad, that. You've taken the blue pill."...



Fuk!!!...

No wonder I can't get rid of this STIFFY...

new world order2

climber
Jan 5, 2013 - 01:41pm PT
lol.....
ionlyski

Trad climber
Kalispell, Montana
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:01pm PT
This threads way to benign, stop agreeing. Where's Klimmer?

Get well Locker. Didn't know you were that light. 140's my tops anymore but I try to keep it under 138.

Arne
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:13pm PT
"Didn't know you were that light"...

I'm the white Sammy Davis Jr.

Credit: locker
...




EDITED:

Of course it DOES have it's advantages...

Especially when CLIMBING...

When I'm "On" (less and less these days) I can FLOAT the sh!t I climb...



;-)
ionlyski

Trad climber
Kalispell, Montana
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:23pm PT
5' ?"
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:25pm PT

5'7"...
ionlyski

Trad climber
Kalispell, Montana
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:28pm PT
Oh, OK, same. Used to be solid 5'8". And my lumbar had less curvature. Blow a disc and lose an inch!
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:30pm PT


"Used to be solid 5'8"..."...

LOL!!!...

DITTO!!!...

Age and gravity, have taken their toll...

moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 5, 2013 - 03:37pm PT
Used to be 8", now not so much. Before I used a ruler to measure, now I use a tape.
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 05:10pm PT


I can EASILY see how this sh!t could KILL you...

Fuk, I am currently OWNED...

moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 5, 2013 - 05:39pm PT
Locker, are you possessed???
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 5, 2013 - 05:40pm PT


"Locker, are you possessed???"...

Apparently...

moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 6, 2013 - 12:46am PT
Check the latest flu situation:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 6, 2013 - 01:22am PT


On the news last night they brought up an interesting point and one I personally never would have thought about...

The dry air here has it that the virus remains in the air, for longer periods of time...

If it would snow or rain, it would take it down, etc...

Also, for this area, it is approx five weeks earlier than the usual peak season...

I know of at least five people that I personally know, that have been hospitalized...

I probably should have been too (Still should be???) but lack of insurance had/has me doing EVERYTHING I can, to avoid it...

Still time though...

as I am NOT out of the woods just yet...

;-/





EDITED:

THANKS!!! moosedrool...

Sure as hell TRYING...

moosedrool

Trad climber
lost, far away from Poland
Jan 6, 2013 - 01:36am PT
No insurance Locker? Sorry man.

Get well!
Jim Brennan

Trad climber
Vancouver Canada
Jan 6, 2013 - 01:46am PT
Don't worry about the weather Locker.

Up here in the rotting, misty forests, the FLU does just fine. I f*#ked up my knee skiing and thought that was bad until the FLU decided to party with me at the same time.

Awesome good times barfing and squirting after high tailing it to the can on crutches and fumbling with the velcro knee brace so I could drop my pants !

All I could think of was: HAHAHAHAHAHA !!!
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 6, 2013 - 02:09am PT
"Awesome good times barfing and squirting"...


There's a song about it I think...

Goes something like this...



"I'm a barfin and a squirtin...

ridin all night long...


Yes a barfin and a squirtin...

fukin ALL night long


Now I'm needin me some TP

Flushin gone, gone, gone"
...



Sung to the tune of "Rolling and Tumbling"...
Tami

Social climber
Canada
Jan 6, 2013 - 02:26am PT
Jim of the Knee - That's NOT "the flu" but a norovirus. No vaccine for it yet..........WTF ? That's a freakin' vaccine I'd camp overnight to be first in line for.

The noro-type virus here in Van has been bad this year. A friend who works at Lions Gate said 2x as many patients over the same time as last year. Hamish F said his family had it over Zmas. We had it hit us here on New Years Day with the squirts and pukes. Three of the five of us got it. And my son passed it to his roommate in Vic to boot.

Happy New Year squirt barf ewwwww icky poopoo.....

dirtbag

climber
Jan 9, 2013 - 08:21am PT
“Melanie’s Marvelous Measles” was written to:

Educate children on the benefits of having measles and how you can heal from them naturally and successfully. Often today, we are being bombarded with messages from vested interests to fear all diseases in order for someone to sell some potion or vaccine, when, in fact, history shows that in industrialized countries, these diseases are quite benign and, according to natural health sources, beneficial to the body. Having raised three children vaccine-free and childhood disease-free, I have experienced many times when my children’s vaccinated peers succumb to the childhood diseases they were vaccinated against.

http://www.salon.com/2013/01/07/anti_vaccine_book_tells_kids_to_embrace_measles/
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 9, 2013 - 08:35am PT
That book by an Australian author just proves that not all the nut jobs are in America.

I had measles as a kid in the days before vaccines and was in a darkened room with a high fever for two weeks, unable to read or do anything. I also had mumps and chickenpox, all preventable nowadays. All of them were serious diseases.

What is so disgusting about these anti vacination advocates is their selfishness in relying on other people to vaccinate their children in sufficient numbers that there will be no outbreaks and their kids will remain healthy without vaccines. To me it's an antisocial pathology.
elcap-pics

Big Wall climber
Crestline CA
Jan 9, 2013 - 11:36am PT
Don't you or your children get vaccinated for anything... that's another great way to keep the population down!
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Jan 9, 2013 - 03:12pm PT
Going on day 12(???) now and STILL feeling like total crap...

THIS SH!T IS RELENTLESS!!!...

FUKING A!!!...


Will say that I am FINALLY out of bed for short periods of time and even working with GLUE a little...

I have had to turn away so many customers and it SUCKS!!!...

and needless to say ZERO climbing all this time and I don't see ANY climbing happening for at least another week (right about the time SH!TTY weather will be setting in)...

and that really, really SUCKS big fuking time!!!...



EDITED:

Had I NOT taken the Flu shot???...

No way to know for sure...






That story about how the WHITE MAN took virus infused BLANKETS to the RED MAN in the past totally makes sense...

Very effective method for fuking people up...



healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Jan 9, 2013 - 11:13pm PT
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2259774/Flu-epidemic-worst-decade-Boston-declares-state-emergency-Chicago-hospitals-turn-away-ambulances.html

UK Mail Online / Flu epidemic could be the worst in a decade

By DAVID MCCORMACK
PUBLISHED: 15:13 EST, 9 January 2013 | UPDATED: 18:12 EST, 9 January 2013

* Boston declares state of emergency and Chicago hospitals turn away ambulances.

* U.S. experiencing what is shaping up to be the worst flu outbreak in a decade with 20 children dead

* Boston has had a ten-fold increase in the number of cases compared to last year

* At one stage 12 Chicago hospitals were so swamped that they were turning patients away

* Elsewhere hospitals are taking extra precautions including limiting visitors or setting-up tents in their parking lots
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 4, 2013 - 11:35am PT
Published in Medscape:


Hi. My name is Paul Offit. I am talking to you today from the Vaccination Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. I would like to talk about a report from the Institute of Medicine (IOM), published on January 16, 2013, looking at the safety of vaccines and the vaccine schedule. The IOM tried to answer the questions, "Is this vaccine schedule, as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Academy of Pediatrics, reasonable? Has it been well tested? Is it safe?"

The advantage of the IOM is that they are part of the National Academies, which don't receive funding from pharmaceutical companies or the federal government. This panel, for the most part, is made up of individuals who have never done research specifically in vaccines. They haven't done clinical studies on vaccines, reviewed biological license applications, or participated on data and safety monitoring boards for vaccine research. This is a group that has expertise in other areas of medicine, and they brought that expertise to looking at the safety of vaccines.

Information from IndustryThey looked at voluminous amounts of data, including data from so-called "concomitant use studies," in which investigators aim to prove that a vaccine, when it is added to the schedule, doesn't interfere with the safety or immunogenicity profiles of existing vaccines, and vice-versa. Hundreds of such studies have been conducted, and anyone who looks at these data closely will come to the same conclusions that the IOM came to, which is that the vaccine schedule is well-tested and safe.

Hopefully, for some patients in your practice, this review by a group of independent investigators will be convincing. I suspect that some patients, no matter what the data show, will still choose not to get vaccines. This is unfortunate because then we simply have to keep our fingers crossed and hope that children don't suffer as a result of that choice, whereas we wouldn't have to keep our fingers crossed and depend on luck if people simply got vaccines. I hope the IOM study will help.

Thank you for your attention.

Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Feb 4, 2013 - 11:43am PT
I'm down with the flue - I've run a 102 fever for three days now, and I had the flu shot. However, I knew ahead of time that there was another flu out there not covered by the shot. I'm still getting my shot again next year. Two or more rounds of different flus in one winter I don't need.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Feb 4, 2013 - 11:44am PT
ive never had a flu shot in my life,, and i dont get the flus going around these days.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:45pm PT
So, Ron, what you're saying is "It's better to be lucky than smart?"

One of my wife's pregnant patients refused the vaccine and is now in the
ICU on a ventilator and both she and her baby are not expected to make it.
Not only is that stupid but it is also selfish.
Anastasia

climber
Home
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:51pm PT
There is a valid connection between schizophrenia and cats.

There is not a valid connection between vaccines and autism.

Still people keep their cats and parents avoid vaccines because... Human are emotional, illogical, beings. Cats appear so much nicer than that strange fluid filled needle.
Cosmiccragsman

Trad climber
AKA Dwain, from Apple Valley, Ca. and Vegas!
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:51pm PT
Ron;
When you decide to get a flu shot.
I'll be happy to ADMINISTER it!

photo not found
Missing photo ID#175635
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:53pm PT
Yikes lol!


And as far as immunizations and the prolific use of antibiotics,, weve created these newer strains of ever developing and morphing bacterias. Have we not?

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:56pm PT
What's that got to do with the flu and the inflation rate in Zambia?
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:04pm PT
Well as far as Zambia,, ya got me.. But as far as new strains of bacteria out there - weve created those through immunizations as they morph to get around those . Then we create a new immunization, which is then also morphed around by the bacteria,, breeding "smart" bacteria if you will.
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:07pm PT
Ron: And as far as immunizations and the prolific use of antibiotics,, weve created these newer strains of ever developing and morphing bacterias. Have we not?

All bacteria, viruses, and even humans are "ever developing and morphing". Some bacteria do so in the presence of over-prescribed antibiotics and so become resistant to them. We don't have antibiotics for viruses - we have vaccines. We also have bacterial vaccines like DPT, TB, Typhoid, and Cholera.
locker

Social climber
state of Kumbaya...
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:08pm PT


I can't count how many people I know that CLAIM they never get sick...

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:11pm PT
Sorry, I thought we were talking about immunizations, arguably one of science's
greatest contributions to humanity.

If you mean to make the point that anti-biotics are over-prescribed and are
contributing to the evolution of resistant strains then fine. But that is
a different subject.

Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:13pm PT
Tru,, i was "morphing" them together.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 4, 2013 - 01:16pm PT
And as far as immunizations and the prolific use of antibiotics,, weve created these newer strains of ever developing and morphing bacterias. Have we not?


I think it IS fair to say that overuse of antibiotics has resulted in resistant strains.

However, I've never seen that assertion for vaccines.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:16pm PT
Isnt there new strains of the flu about every year?
rectorsquid

climber
Lake Tahoe
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:28pm PT
There was a time when you could get very sick from a vaccine. People should not trust science any more blindly than they should trust anything or anyone else blindly.

Unfortunately, a healthy social distrust in any large authoritarian power, like scientists, leads to some individuals having an unhealthy distrust.

That said, we are far past the time when distrust of vaccines is at all helpful. Even when they were a bit more dangerous, their overall social benefit was worth the risk to any individual.

It does make sense though that as something becomes commonplace and less people speak out about its potential hazards, the fearful (functionally insane) people start to get agitated. Eventually, they see the lack of concern as a big conspiracy against them. The fact that no one sane ever actually thought that contrails were chemical trails really freaks out those types of people.

I know a die hard science type of guy who got a flu shot just because he believed it was better for society as a whole that he did so. He swears that it gave him the flu or at least didn't protect him at all from it. I'll bet he'll avoid that shot for a few years.

Dave
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
The current statistics for this flu shot is that it protects 62% from getting
it and that if you do get it then it mitigates the symptoms considerably.
I'll take 62% any day. Hell, bat .300 and you're a lock for the Hall of Fame.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Feb 4, 2013 - 02:05pm PT
Cosmic....I understand wheat-grass enemas are another immunization tactic for the flu virus....Do you administer those..?
Heyzeus

climber
Hollywood,Ca
Feb 4, 2013 - 08:51pm PT
No link between shots and autism but there IS a link between the flu shot and developing narcolepsy in children in Europe. Doesn't seem to be a problem in the U.S. as we do not allow the "adjuvant" or booster here. A story I read a couple of weeks ago on it was heartbreaking. Narcolepsy is far from benign and quite tragic for the girl I read about.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/uk-study-strengthens-between-gsk-flu-shot-narcolepsy-114619475.html
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Feb 4, 2013 - 09:19pm PT
Influenza is caused by viruses. Therefore overuse of antibiotics has no effect on them. Overuse of antibiotics has affected the growth of resistant bacteria however.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 21, 2013 - 09:18pm PT
Flu vaccine not very effective for seniors this year.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57570589/cdc-flu-vaccine-only-provided-9-percent-protection-for-seniors-against-worst-strain/

Effectiveness is defined by whether one needed outpatient medical visits due to the flu, so lots more just suffered at home.
Degaine

climber
Feb 22, 2013 - 05:32am PT
For all those who have written that the overuse of antibiotics has prompted the growth of highly resistant bacteria, this is not only due to human use.

A large part of this phenomenon can be traced to factory farming and extreme overuse of antibiotics. Factory farming has also become the breeding grounds for extremely virulent strains of flu that yes humans can catch.

A good part of the blow back regarding vaccination is due to pharmaceutical industry greed and unwillingness to be straightforward with the public and doctors with regard to potential long term side effects of a who variety of products, including vaccines.

mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Nov 4, 2013 - 05:26pm PT
Good times

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/11/04/240278593/getting-your-microbes-analyzed-raises-big-privacy-issues
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2014 - 02:01pm PT
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/22/health/india-end-of-polio/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

India beats the odds, beats polio

Howrah District, India (CNN) -- Rukhsar Khatoon is too young to fully grasp the significance of her life: that she is a last in a country of 1.2 billion people.
She has become the greatest symbol of India's valiant -- and successful -- effort to rid itself of a crippling and potentially deadly disease. Rukhsar, 4, is the final documented case of polio in India.

Her parents, Abdul Shah, 32, and Shobejan Begum, 30, blame themselves for their child's suffering. They had their other children vaccinated, but not Rukhsar. She was a sickly child, in and out of hospital with liver infections and diarrhea. They thought it safer not to subject her to more medication.

Rukhsar's father Abdul Shah blames himself and says he thought she would never walk again.

It wasn't until little Rukhsar's right foot swelled and twisted in early 2011 that her parents took her to a hospital in nearby Beleghata for tests. She was just 18 months old when doctors confirmed the worst: Rukhsar had polio.

Polio is caused by a virus that attacks the brain and spinal cord cells that move joints and muscles. About one-third of those who contract polio in India are left paralyzed -- as was Rukhsar.

"There were three keys to our success," Kapur says. "Immunize, immunize and immunize."
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