Immunizations....what has happened

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Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Original Post - Dec 29, 2012 - 08:21pm PT
There seems to be recurrent discussion and interest in immunizations, their safety and use.

I've posted about this before, but there is a remarkable thing happening, which is the eradication of polio effort.

This has been due soley to the use of vaccines.

the first human disease eliminated, of course, was smallpox.

This year, there were only 215 cases IN THE WORLD. It is circulating in only three countries, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria. There were only 5 cases that occurred in one other country, exported from the three.

Contrast this with last year: 604 in the world, with 309 cases having broken out of the endemic countries into 13 other countries.

The smaller the number, the easier it is to corral the remaining cases.
We are really approaching the end of another disease, forever.
Mighty Hiker

climber
Vancouver, B.C.
Dec 29, 2012 - 08:27pm PT
It may be a while before they eradicate polio from those countries. Geographic, economic and political problems, and this:

Gunmen shot dead six health workers on an anti-polio drive in a string of attacks in Pakistan over 24 hours, officials said on Tuesday, raising fears for the future of efforts to eradicate the crippling disease in one of its last strongholds.

It was not clear who was behind the shootings, but Taliban insurgents have repeatedly denounced the vaccination campaign as a Western plot. The campaign aims to wipe out polio in one of the last three countries where it is endemic.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/six-polio-health-workers-killed-in-string-of-attacks-in-pakistan/article6504738/

Fundamental religion of all kinds never seems comfortable with science. Not to mention the anti-science crowd who promote falsehoods about the risks of routine vaccinations.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 08:32pm PT
True, MH, although this violence was undoubtedly abetted by the astonishing foolish decision of the CIA to use a vaccine-worker cover to go to Osama bin Laden's compound. When this became known, all vaccine workers were put at risk, as well as the world-wide effort.

Even with this problem, there remains great progress in that country this year, from 181 cases to 57.

There is also another disease that is nearing the path to eradication:
Guinea Worm infection.
Down to under a thousand world-wide cases.

http://www.who.int/dracunculiasis/en/
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Dec 29, 2012 - 08:52pm PT
this violence was undoubtedly abetted by the astonishing foolish decision of the CIA to use a vaccine-worker

The violence against vaccine workers in the Pak tribal areas goes back at least a dozen years.

There's the "Zionist sterilization plot" myth coupled with an aversion to anyone coming in from the outside, especially if connected to the central govt. in some way.

It took many years to get an effective vaccine program in N Africa against Muslim resistance as well.

Place the blame where it lies.
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Dec 29, 2012 - 08:57pm PT
The biggest problem we face is over population. Global warming, famine, ehtnic cleansing, deforestation, acceleration in vanishing species are all tied to population growth.
How about a vaccine that would make people impotent after they have produced replacements for themselves.
Kidding.....sort of.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 09:00pm PT
Another disease that has been dramatically affected by immunization, is invasive pneumococcal disease, which is particularly an affliction of infants and the elderly.

A vaccine was introduced in 2000 to be given to children. What happened was astonishing: By the end of 2001, in children under 2 years old, the incidence of the disease was reduced by 69%! Very interesting, there was also a reduction in adults by 30-some %, even tho adults WERE NOT IMMUNIZED.

"At the end of 2004, all-cause pneumonia admission rates had declined by 39% (95% CI 22-52) for children younger than 2 years, who were the target population of the vaccination programme."

"During the 8 study years, 10,659 (2%) children younger than 2 years admitted with pneumonia were coded as having pneumococcal disease; these rates declined by 65%"

This has been replicated in country after country.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 09:03pm PT
TGT, you apparently don't know people who work in the vaccine field, but I do. The level of fear created among workers because of the CIA action cannot be overstated. What it did was VERIFY the rumors that it took years to overcome.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 29, 2012 - 09:08pm PT
Donini, I'm with you, even tongue in cheek.

Of interest, 50% of all pregnancies in the US are not desired, so simply facitiliting what people actually want will have a huge impact on population.

I'm writing an article right now, about the consequences of a study carried out in Detroit, where they took a thousand women in poverty, and made birth control easily available and free, then watch to see what happened over the following 3 years. What happened was a 80% reduction in birth rate, compared with similar groups in that city, state, and the country as a whole.

So all we have to do, is let people do what they actually want to do, and it will have a very big effect on population with time.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 29, 2012 - 10:36pm PT
Not sure what Donini has against sex. You can make people sterile without making them impotent.
In fact, sterilization after the desired number of children is the most common form
of contraception in the developing world.

It surely is amazing to see the drops in infant mortality in the developing world thanks to immunization.
This is important because studies have shown parents do lower the number of children they want to have
when they see that infant mortality declines. They make this connection even when they are totally illiterate.
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Dec 29, 2012 - 10:42pm PT

But my child will be autistic if he gets vaccinated!!!!
Ricky D

Trad climber
Sierra Westside
Dec 29, 2012 - 10:58pm PT
But my child will be autistic if he gets vaccinated!!!!

No - your child will be autistic because you watch Fox News.

Not only that - but because you once shopped at Walmart - the little f*#kers gonna have a peanut allergy too!

An don't even get me started about the obesity and diabetes factor from eating at Applebee's last summer!
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 08:02pm PT
From the medical site Medscape:


Hi. My name is Paul Offit. I am talking to you today from the Vaccination Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

Today is December 21, 2012, a day that according to the Mayan calendar should mark the end of the world as we know it. Speaking of ancient beliefs that aren't founded on good science, I thought it would be of interest to talk about a paper that appeared in the journal Pediatrics [1] this week, about thimerosal in vaccines.

Many of you might wonder why we are still talking about this. Hasn't this issue been resolved? Yes, it has, but it has come up again because of an effort by antivaccine groups that have lobbied the World Health Organization and other global health groups to try and get thimerosal out of vaccines given to infants and young children in the developing world -- something that would be disastrous.

In the late 1990s, as children began to receive more and more vaccines in the United States, they also received more and more thimerosal, an ethyl mercury-containing preservative in vaccines. Concern was expressed at the time that this may put children at risk. Mercury at high doses can cause harm, but the question was whether mercury in the form of ethyl mercury, given at much lower doses, could cause harm. This caused a great deal of concern in the late 1990s. As a consequence, there was a real effort to get thimerosal out of vaccines given to infants and very young children.

Since that time we have learned, in a series of 7 studies, that children who received thimerosal-containing vaccines compared with children who received the same vaccines without thimerosal are not at greater risk for neurodevelopmental problems, including autism or even subtle signs of mercury toxicity. In the late 1990s, a handful of children died of hepatitis B because the health centers in which they were born were so scared of thimerosal, which had been given a "scarlet letter," that they abandoned their hepatitis immunization program -- even for children who were born to mothers who had hepatitis B.

At the time, this action was considered a precaution: Let's get thimerosal out of vaccines until we learn more about thimerosal. Children died as a result; therefore, we didn't follow a precautionary principle that argues to do something to avoid harm, but in fact we caused harm. This new article is putting forward the idea that we should not make the same mistake, because now we know that the level of thimerosal in vaccines doesn't cause harm. If it is decided by the World Health Organization or other global health agencies to remove thimerosal from vaccines, it would mean using single-dose vials instead of multidose vials, which makes vaccines much more expensive for countries that already can't afford them.

If we were to do this, instead of a handful of children dying, hundreds or thousands of children will die. This paper is saying, "Mea culpa; let's not make the same mistake again." Thank you very much for your attention and happy holidays.

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 08:48pm PT
Tami, it's easy for me.....I've spent my life training in this, treating some of the diseases involved and seeing what happens with them.

What I find supremely ironic is that my profession comes in for a raft of sh*t, much of it deserved, for not spending sufficient time on *prevention* of disease, but concentrating on treating it.

And yet....and yet.....that is exactly what we are talking about here....prevention.

It would be nice if we could prevent all disease by dietary means, and by excercising. I'm not sure we are ready to force people to do either. Additionally, I think we live FAR too close together, in a way that facilitates the spread of infection diseases. Unless we are willing to kill off 3/4 of the population, and all go and live on farms, that's not going to change.

We have to deal with what we face today.

Tami, I'm not particularly fond of the concept of coercing people to do things. Whether it is good diet, or other health practices that protect the health of the community as a whole.

I'm much more in favor of talking about things, in a setting where the possibility of good information flow might exist.
Mighty Hiker

climber
Vancouver, B.C.
Dec 30, 2012 - 08:52pm PT
//Unless we are willing to kill off 3/4 of the population, and all go and live on farms, that's not going to change.//

Except that so many human diseases originate in herd animals...
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 30, 2012 - 09:26pm PT
If more and more people in First World countries like the U.S. refuse to vaccinate their children, then eventually we will have an epidemic that kills a lot of kids. Ironically, First World countries need more children yet put theirs at risk while Third World Countries are grateful for the chance to be vaccinated and will have more that survive. Evolution at work but in a strange way.

Meanwhile CDC is telling us that this is going to be a particularly bad flu season which has in fact begun early this year.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 09:43pm PT
//Unless we are willing to kill off 3/4 of the population, and all go and live on farms, that's not going to change.//

Except that so many human diseases originate in herd animals...

Well, free-range, of course. :)
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 30, 2012 - 09:49pm PT
Jan, the issue with first world contries needing more children is contrived. It only seems so, because we have built infrastructure that is dependent upon constant growth.

It should be obvious that model must eventually fail. But in the meantime, it creates pressures that are unsustainable. Malthus was right. Because he wasn't right in the correct timescale is irrelevant.

In the meantime, we have to do things, or we will be overtaken by events.
There was a time when shortage of food was a real possibility in this country, although it seems hard to believe now. But that problem will seem to be simple in contrast to others.

Water seems to be a convergent factor.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 30, 2012 - 09:54pm PT
It's true we all need just balanced replacement growth or diminished populations but none of us can get it right. Some societies have too many old, others too many young, while an increasing number have too many males compared to females. It's predicted that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race. If we survive that then population all over the world will decline and the human race might have a future.

The other part of the equation is that developed countries, but especially America use so many resources. One American consumes as much as ten or more in a less developed society.
SteveW

Trad climber
The state of confusion
Dec 30, 2012 - 10:27pm PT

Ricky D--I was being sarcastic. . .
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 12:43am PT
Here is a rather newer, and controversial, vaccine, and it's impact:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20139221

vaccination was up to 100% effective in reducing the risk of HPV16/18-related high-grade cervical, vulvar, and vaginal lesions and of HPV6/11-related genital warts.

High-coverage HPV vaccination programs among adolescents and young women may result in a rapid reduction of genital warts, cervical cytological abnormalities, and diagnostic and therapeutic procedures. In the longer term, substantial reductions in the rates of cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers may follow.


This is a big deal, because we are talking about a very real possibility of the first step in the eradication of one type of cancer.

It's too early to know that is actually the case, as it takes more years for these cancers to develop, so we have to follow the groups for more years.

Whats sad is the women who will have lost their chance to have these cancers potentially totally eliminated from their lives.

Believe it or not, this is what we actually work towards in medicine.
Ghost

climber
A long way from where I started
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:47am PT
It's predicted that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race.

Hi Jan -- can you elaborate on that? We have developed so many ways to endanger ourselves, and I'm curious about which one(s) you're thinking of here.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
-A race of corn eaters
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:52am PT
How about a vaccine that would make people impotent after they have produced replacements for themselves.

Impotent?! Was that something of a freudian slip? lol!

How about merely non-fertile? I could go for that.

re: over-population problem

In the future, maybe not too far off, and after a bout or two of malthusian pressure and its uglies, we might just wise up enough to employ the following solution to the over-population problem: post-replacement sterilization (vasectomy, eg, or tubal ligation) in exchange for continued health care credits. What's not to like with this (reasonable) solution given the alternatives. Quid pro quo. Win win.

Ultimately, there's really only two choices when malthusian pressure red lines: fight it out in natural selection terms or manage the reproduction (fairly in some way in the eyes of the community; via "impotence," haha, no, sterilization after replacement)
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 12:10pm PT
Ultimately, there's really only two choices when malthusian pressure red lines: fight it out in natural selection terms or manage the reproduction (fairly in some way in the eyes of the community; via "impotence," haha, no, sterilization after replacement)

when I first read this, I read this as TEAMS.

I like the idea of being on the climbers team!
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 12:59pm PT
Jan, the issue with first world countries needing more children is contrived. It only seems so, because we have built infrastructure that is dependent upon constant growth.

Hold the calls, we have a winner! The "infrastructure," though, is mostly fiscal, not physical, constructs. Any elaboration probably belongs in the "Republicans" thread.

Good topic, Ken. The hostility toward immunization always amazes me, but then the nature of human risk aversion amazes me too. We worry about outcomes with a miniscule probability (or in the case of almost all immunization, zero established probability), and in the process accept avoidable risk of worse outcomes with a significant probability.

John
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:06pm PT
nwo2 makes a point which will most likely determine our fate, that is, while we see that overpopulation is a predictable problem, we have no way of preventing it by our own decisions.

The ecological concept of "carrying capacity" is essentially one of energy conservation, and it is governed by thermodynamics. Biological systems in all their features are not well described by thermodynamics since they represent a non-equilibrium state locally, that is, they scavenge energy to maintain biological order. The atmosphere of the Earth, for instance, is decidedly non-equilibrium (this was Lovelock's insight which eventually lead to the Gaia hypothesis, but starts as a NASA study of "signatures" of life on other planets).

At some point, the energy demands of human life will exceed the ecosystems ability to produce it. This is easiest to see in our fossil fuel use, which we are expending at a very high rate. Interestingly, the alteration of the climate by CO2 emissions due to that fuel use might make the environment unable to support other human energy needs, like food production.

Energy use also requires water, and we are using fossil water resources at an increasingly high rate too. We cannot produce energy without water, it is required in nuclear power plants as well as for crops of plants and animals.

Thermodynamics also limits the efficiencies with which we can utilize these energy resources, so there is a limit to our ability to realize efficiencies, and not only that, but the efficiencies have to be applied to all of the elements of the process. So, for instance, the apparent efficiency of solar-power when we only look at the end use on our roofs is offset by the very inefficient production, distribution, installation, decommissioning and deconstruction steps of the process.

Increased efficiencies and the utilization of local climatic and geophysical "resources" can greatly reduce energy need, but not at an exponential rate, which is how population grows. It is true no matter how slow that rate of growth is, put simply, the more people you have, the more people reproduction you have.

It is a matter of supreme individual liberty that we hold the individual responsible for making their own reproductive choices. It is a central aspect of our behavior that we seek to reproduce. Obviously these two central characters of our being lead to the uncontrolled growth of population. Preserving both of these characters means that the limits to population growth would only the inability of the ecosystem to support that growth.

We can see it coming, it is doubtful that we can do anything about it in an organized manner.

Educating people, giving them choices and letting them decide is probably the only hope. Unfortunately there is an economic stake here, too, with many interests weighing in to insure their ox is not gored in the process. The most rudimentary understanding of physics, chemistry, biology, earth science and mathematics is needed to understand the concept of limits and carrying capacity, yet apparently educated people make the most absurd statements in an authoritative manner (especially economists, who are unaware that they are a subfield of ecology).

Allowing people to make choices, especially reproductive choices, goes hand-in-glove with the topic of the OP, the increased ability to successfully raise your offspring to adulthood. That along with access to contraception for both partners makes conception a choice rather than a fate. Obviously there are many social issues at play here, but once again, allowing this to be a matter of individual choice is paramount, freeing the individual from those social constraints has to be a goal.

There is contained here the classic collaboration between the individual and the society in which the individual lives. If there is a "new world order" it is in the fact that our neighborhood actions effect the globe as a whole, the consequences of our choices are borne not just by our community near by, but by the entire planet.

And so we must learn, somehow, to act as a planet.

There are living things on the planet that are also essential for our existence, and them lacking a voice in this debate must be represented by those of us who understand the consequences of our choices on that voiceless, but essential, domain.

At times I am optimistic, but mostly I am pessimistic, about humans rising to this challenge. Lately I have come to view the human condition in terms of the myths given to us from the Greeks, that of Cassandra... our scientific knowledge the gift of prophecy, but in a world not willing to accept that knowledge and act on it. As Cassandra is a figure of the epic tradition and of tragedy, so, fittingly, would this play out in human history.

I'm not saying that "science" should be accepted unthoughtfully, rather all along I've advocated for and aided in educating people on science, in my mind the more people understand the better they are prepared to make those individual decisions that will be required to be made. Science is both an individual and a societal enterprise, and is best performed with all the bits laid bare. But even that is contentious, as the "immunizations debate" illustrates.

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 02:32pm PT
Ed, a remarkable discussion.

I agree, that we probably do not make these decisions "collectively".

As of right now, we do not have a replacement fertility rate in place. We only continue to grow, due to immigration.

If it were up to me, I think there is a national discussion that needs to take place. Personally, I'd aim for a "replacement" level at this point, and no more. 30 years from now, I'd like to see some shrinkage, but there need to be institutional changes for that to work without chaos in our society.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 02:40pm PT
Tami, I think there has been an educational shift in this country that no one understands the meaning of: 60% of college graduates are now women.

When you consider where we were 100 years ago, that is astonishing.

Even with the cultural stigma against women being educated, even more so.

60 of the 100 members of the entering class of my medical school this year are women. I'll grant that mine is progressive, but even so, an amazing advancement. 30 years ago, it was 28 out of 100, and that was considered radical.
High Fructose Corn Spirit

Gym climber
-A race of corn eaters
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:40pm PT
especially economists, who are unaware that they are a subfield of ecology

Nice to see you're on board with this.

.....

Oh no...
Life isn't game theory.

Life IS game theory. Meaning that it plays out according to game theory - if not as an economist defines it, then in terms of how an astute ecologist defines it - in terms of game rules, players, strategies (including cooperation, deceit, freeriding, penalty or punishment, teaming up), objectives, moves, player strengths and skills, winning and losing, winners and losers.

Suggest (1) reading NonZero, by Robert Wright, for starters, for a fuller treatment (and not anything in a more traditional vein, esp from an economist or mathematician writing in the abstract); (2) watching Survivor (the reality show) as a most excellent metaphor and microcosm of it.

Humans are cooperative organisms...

Of course. Cooperation is essential to success in the game of life (described by "game theory" in evolutionary eco terms) when played at more complex levels - heart cells to honey bees to humans.

.....

Natural selection TEAMS - might come down to that! :)
hb81

climber
Dec 31, 2012 - 02:47pm PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]

Watch this video to further understand what Ed has outlined above.
It starts out a bit dry but it's well worth watching the whole thing.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 03:08pm PT
Ken,

You don't even need to got back 100 years. When I was an undergrad at Berkeley from 1969-73, there were 1.8 males for each female student, and the faculty male-to-female ratio in the departments in which I studied was closer to 99%. Even in law school at UCLA in the late 70's, there were at least twice as many men as women, and the school had to go out of its way to attract those women.

Unfortunately, at the high school where my daughter was teaching, there were still plenty of 14-to-16-year-olds intentionally getting pregnant. The rise in female education has, sad to say, not led to lifestyle changes in that community. Instead it simply expanded the gap between the haves and have nots. How do we reach the sorts of disadvantaged (economically, sociologically, and parentally) students my daughter encounters?

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 04:39pm PT
John, we won't do it.

The women will do it, just as they have accomplished what has taken place. It didn't happen because of what men did, it happened because of what women made happen.

Those girls don't trust us, and they shouldn't. They have good reason not to (meaning as a group, not individuals).
Batrock

Trad climber
Burbank
Dec 31, 2012 - 05:57pm PT
Has anyone read Ecoscience by John P Holdren and Paul R Erlich? It has some interesting solutions to population control. I have been trying to upload some pages from the book but they wind up upside down when download it from my Ipad. I'll try it tomorrow when i get home tomorrow, unless you want to try and read it standing on your head.
JEleazarian

Trad climber
Fresno CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 06:19pm PT
I agree, Ken. I find it interesting to have been an observer of the women's movement over the years. I have no brothers, but I am an older brother of sisters. I have two (grown) daughters and no sons, so I'm not exactly disinterested in this topic.

It was my contention while at Berkeley that the biggest oppressors of women in the world may have been men, but the biggest oppressors of women in the United States were other women. Sad to say, I'm not sure that's changed for the most disadvantaged women. According to my daughter, the high schoolers dealt with were getting their ideas to get pregnant (and the acceptance of such plans) from their female friends and family.

When I was in high school in the 1960's, the segment of the U.S. population with the lowest birthrate was college educated Mexican-Americans. The portion of Fresno County's population with the highest teenage pregnancy rates now are probably Mexican Americans who did not (or will not) graduate from high school, so I'm hoping that you're right about how increased education for women can turn this problem around.

I wouldn't entirely discount the role of men, though. I know I was instrumental in getting my sister into the legal profession, and, as a law professor, encouraged many women to go into areas of the law that were traditionally male bastions, with much success. Ultimately, though, I think the social guidance (and pressure) from other women holds our best hope.

John
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Dec 31, 2012 - 06:40pm PT
I don't think we disagree on any of this, John, although we may come at it from slightly different angles.

I also had the opportunity to get a first-hand look at minority penetration into professions, as well. My classmate was Alan Bakke, so my entire time in professional school was a media zoo. Sad to say, the minorities have not fared as well as the women.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Dec 31, 2012 - 09:00pm PT
the relationship between "Total Fertility Rate" and socio-economic status of a country's (or region's) population is not understood. A 2009 study published in Nature shows that the TFR increases at some point as the HDI (Human Development Index, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_development_index); increases.

the article can be viewed here:
http://cfs.ccpr.ucla.edu/events/ccpr-previous-seminars/ccpr-seminars-previous-years/Kohler-advances%20in%20development.pdf

in fact the study finds that, e.g. the US, Netherlands and Norway have increasing TFR recently, whereas Japan continues to have a decreasing TFR...

the various empirical economic models regarding human fertility still have a ways to go to describe the underlying causes of TFR changes...
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 31, 2012 - 09:57pm PT
From NHK

Japan's health and welfare ministry says it believes the population shrank in 2012 for the 6th year in a row.
 

The ministry says about 1.03 million people were born in Japan in 2012. It says the number of deaths topped 1.24 million, the second most in the post-war era. The ministry estimates women are having an average of 1.39 children. The ministry officials say the population is expected to continue to age and decline.


In regard to why the populations of Japan and Korea are still declining, I believe the factors are socio-cultural although economics plays a role. Having worked in family planning in Nepal, I can say that socio-cultural factors are always under emphasized by the males in charge of societies and aid programs in favor of economic explanations. Many studies have found that family planning occurs only when women are educated either formally or informally.

In Japan and Korea, we have some of the most densely populated societies on earth, with almost no natural resources and uncertain climates in the form of yearly typhoons which threaten agricultural production. Their modernization was built on exports which are no longer economically competitive so their manufacturing has been shifted to cheap labor countries. Those are the important economic reasons for declining desire for children.

I believe the more important socio-cultural reasons have to do with the liberation of women East Asian style. As a group they are highly educated and economically successful but still live in a society that is dominated by males who show little interest in modernizing social relationships. These tradition bound males are so inflexible that they refuse to change and would rather have a mail order bride from the Phillipines than deal with a modern Japanese or Korean wife. Alternatively many of them continue to live at home, cared for by their mothers and seemingly oblivious to their lonely fate after their mothers pass on.

At first, East Asian women responded by marrying as late as possible and having only one child. Now increasing numbers of them choose not to marry at all or to marry and have no children. The governments respond by upping the child allowance to $2,000 a year which is still inadequate to the real costs of a child, but more importantly, makes the women angry at the idea that their bodies are for sale. American women marched and burned their bras for equality. The East Asian women are quietly pursuing their careers and ignoring marriage and child raising as their form of protest.

Nobody over here talks about ecological reasons for limiting children. That seems to be more of a North American concern. If East Asians have excelled at anything, it is surviving in spite of limited resources. North Americans who have so much, are always talking about scarcity.

Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Dec 31, 2012 - 10:09pm PT
And in reply to Ghost.

it is thought that the next 50 years will be the most dangerous for the human race because they will see its maximum population expansion. After 2050, looking at current rates, all countries of the world will begin to experience population decline and the total world population will go back down even if there are no catastrophes like world wide epidemics.

As the population heads upward during the next few decades however, the possibility for widespread migrations and wars also increases, in a world armed with nukes. Also large populous societies like India and China have skewed male to female ratios thanks to the cultural preference for sons. Battles over resources and widespread extinctions of animal life on this planet are certain.
Ghost

climber
A long way from where I started
Dec 31, 2012 - 11:48pm PT
Thanks Jan. I thought that was what you meant, but wasn't sure.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 12:53am PT
There is nothing to suggest that due to one set of correlations (J curve) that suddenly the well-established negative relationship between higher economic development and declining fertility rates is instantly invalid , resulting in an overall characterization of 'not understood'.

except that there is no explanation other than the correlation, in either case, a major shortcoming of simple economic analysis that does not (or is not capable of) explaining the underlying behavior.

Jan has provided an interesting perspective that presents a picture of how choices are made in the actual setting, not abstracted to economic metrics.

My point is that the well established "negative relationship" is empirical, and as such, the domain over which it can be applied is unknown. Especially problematic as the relationship may have been established before the economic situation could develop to the point where the actual behavior is at variance with said correlation. The Nature paper points out that these inflections in the TFR occurred in 1976 in the US, and with the noisy data, it took time to see the trends. The original "well established negative relationship" was established much earlier than that.

Absent any justification for that relationship it is not surprising that it might fail to describe the current situation. It is a major failure of economic analysis that most avoid finding models that describe behavior that results in the relationship. As I quipped, parenthetically above, economics is just ecology, and if it actually acted like ecological sciences, there may be better descriptions for economic behavior. Being human ecology, economics that is, there is much room for anthropological insight also.

I'm not impressed by the statement that something is "well established" when there is no underlying treatment of the phenomena.
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 01:46am PT
I'll act like the attempt to provide a plausible contradiction to the basic assertions of the demographic transition model

explain the model...

and especially how your references above, describing the national character, which is to say mostly about male characters, relate to reproduction which requires understanding male/female relationships and that female character as an important piece of the puzzle
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 02:05am PT
actually I am interested in learning...
playing chess is something I stopped doing many years ago.

Have a great new year's eve, and comeback with some thoughts on how such a model might work... and thanks for the references...
Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 1, 2013 - 03:02am PT
here is a fun article to read...
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Academic/Laissez-Faire_In_Popn/L_F_in_Population.html

it has as it's basis the economic considerations of the parents in deciding to have children...
Degaine

climber
Jan 1, 2013 - 05:59am PT
Here are a couple of great presentations by Hans Rosling regarding future world population growth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRkLg

http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies.html


To summarize, if trends continue, the developing world continues to modernize and infant mortality rates drop, the world will reach 9 billion people in 2050 won't grow any further from there.

But watch the videos, he explains it much better.
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 1, 2013 - 07:13am PT
From the bottom video by Hans Rosling:

The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child.

The number one factor for this to have happened was the decline in infant mortality which was due in largest part to Immunizations !
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jan 1, 2013 - 06:03pm PT
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/pakistan-charity-workers-shot-dead/story-e6frg6so-1226546441485

GUNMEN on motorcycles sprayed a van carrying employees from a community centre with bullets, killing five female teachers and two aid workers, but sparing a child they took out of the vehicle before opening fire.

The director of the group that the seven worked for says he suspects it may have been the latest in a series of attacks targeting anti-polio efforts in Pakistan. Some militants oppose the vaccination campaigns, accusing health workers of acting as spies for the US and alleging the vaccine is intended to make Muslim children sterile.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jan 2, 2013 - 09:47pm PT
Well one thing is for sure. It is not due to the shot giving you an infection of the flu. Not enough time between injection and onset of symptoms.

Sucks though no matter what has hit you.

Get well soon Locker

oh and















































YER GUNNA DIE!
donini

Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
Jan 2, 2013 - 09:49pm PT
Immunizations are the current rage in Pakistan.
Anastasia

climber
InLOVEwithAris.
Jan 2, 2013 - 10:02pm PT
Aristides has all his shots up to date and even got a flu shot. I have never been afraid of immunizations and... I am sure my husband who deeply loves his son and knows medicine will not risk his own kid. I think people afraid of immunizations are ignorant, have never seen the diseases the kids are being protected from, really have no clue what to really be afraid of. I honestly want to send each one of them to parts of the world where these "scary" immunizations are not practiced. I bet they will change their opinions.

AFS
Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Jan 2, 2013 - 11:28pm PT
Feel better Locker.

I have a lot of friends who are SICK right now. Sick. As. Dogs.

Every one of them (except you) did not get their flu shot. It takes two weeks for the immunization to take effect which can be a long time with a lot of carriers around.
MisterE

Social climber
Jan 3, 2013 - 01:08am PT
An artistic representation of the net effect of rampant breeding combined with immunization of humans from all diseases and marginal food/water sources:

Crimpergirl

Sport climber
Boulder, Colorado!
Jan 3, 2013 - 01:11am PT
Glad you'll be to the doc tomorrow Locker! Do take care of yourself! To lose 25 pounds, you must have cut off a leg.
dirtbag

climber
Jan 3, 2013 - 02:26pm PT
I don't mind getting immunizations...



























































Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:44am PT
This is really hard for me to understand.

Helath care professionals working in an ICU unit who don't want to get flu shots?!
In this case, they were fired over the issue.

http://news.yahoo.com/nurses-fired-refusing-flu-shot-224637902--abc-news-health.html
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 5, 2013 - 02:45am PT
2012 ends with fewest wild polio cases ever: The year ended with the fewest children paralyzed by wild polio virus, in the fewest places, in history. Two hundred and eighteen wild polio cases have been reported so far for 2012 – a greater than 60% reduction from 2011. Over the year, through the tireless dedication of the on-the-ground heroes of polio eradication, more than 2 billion doses of vaccine were distributed to 429 million children around the world.


Ed Hartouni

Trad climber
Livermore, CA
Jan 5, 2013 - 12:53pm PT
here is an interesting article on a survey of the human microbiome...

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v486/n7402/full/nature11234.html

the function of these microbes and virus are not fully understood, and their influence on our lives are only slightly understood.

ionlyski

Trad climber
Kalispell, Montana
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:01pm PT
This threads way to benign, stop agreeing. Where's Klimmer?

Get well Locker. Didn't know you were that light. 140's my tops anymore but I try to keep it under 138.

Arne
ionlyski

Trad climber
Kalispell, Montana
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:23pm PT
5' ?"
ionlyski

Trad climber
Kalispell, Montana
Jan 5, 2013 - 02:28pm PT
Oh, OK, same. Used to be solid 5'8". And my lumbar had less curvature. Blow a disc and lose an inch!
dirtbag

climber
Jan 9, 2013 - 08:21am PT
“Melanie’s Marvelous Measles” was written to:

Educate children on the benefits of having measles and how you can heal from them naturally and successfully. Often today, we are being bombarded with messages from vested interests to fear all diseases in order for someone to sell some potion or vaccine, when, in fact, history shows that in industrialized countries, these diseases are quite benign and, according to natural health sources, beneficial to the body. Having raised three children vaccine-free and childhood disease-free, I have experienced many times when my children’s vaccinated peers succumb to the childhood diseases they were vaccinated against.

http://www.salon.com/2013/01/07/anti_vaccine_book_tells_kids_to_embrace_measles/
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Jan 9, 2013 - 08:35am PT
That book by an Australian author just proves that not all the nut jobs are in America.

I had measles as a kid in the days before vaccines and was in a darkened room with a high fever for two weeks, unable to read or do anything. I also had mumps and chickenpox, all preventable nowadays. All of them were serious diseases.

What is so disgusting about these anti vacination advocates is their selfishness in relying on other people to vaccinate their children in sufficient numbers that there will be no outbreaks and their kids will remain healthy without vaccines. To me it's an antisocial pathology.
elcap-pics

Big Wall climber
Crestline CA
Jan 9, 2013 - 11:36am PT
Don't you or your children get vaccinated for anything... that's another great way to keep the population down!
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Jan 9, 2013 - 11:13pm PT
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2259774/Flu-epidemic-worst-decade-Boston-declares-state-emergency-Chicago-hospitals-turn-away-ambulances.html

UK Mail Online / Flu epidemic could be the worst in a decade

By DAVID MCCORMACK
PUBLISHED: 15:13 EST, 9 January 2013 | UPDATED: 18:12 EST, 9 January 2013

* Boston declares state of emergency and Chicago hospitals turn away ambulances.

* U.S. experiencing what is shaping up to be the worst flu outbreak in a decade with 20 children dead

* Boston has had a ten-fold increase in the number of cases compared to last year

* At one stage 12 Chicago hospitals were so swamped that they were turning patients away

* Elsewhere hospitals are taking extra precautions including limiting visitors or setting-up tents in their parking lots
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 4, 2013 - 11:35am PT
Published in Medscape:


Hi. My name is Paul Offit. I am talking to you today from the Vaccination Education Center at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. I would like to talk about a report from the Institute of Medicine (IOM), published on January 16, 2013, looking at the safety of vaccines and the vaccine schedule. The IOM tried to answer the questions, "Is this vaccine schedule, as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Academy of Pediatrics, reasonable? Has it been well tested? Is it safe?"

The advantage of the IOM is that they are part of the National Academies, which don't receive funding from pharmaceutical companies or the federal government. This panel, for the most part, is made up of individuals who have never done research specifically in vaccines. They haven't done clinical studies on vaccines, reviewed biological license applications, or participated on data and safety monitoring boards for vaccine research. This is a group that has expertise in other areas of medicine, and they brought that expertise to looking at the safety of vaccines.

Information from IndustryThey looked at voluminous amounts of data, including data from so-called "concomitant use studies," in which investigators aim to prove that a vaccine, when it is added to the schedule, doesn't interfere with the safety or immunogenicity profiles of existing vaccines, and vice-versa. Hundreds of such studies have been conducted, and anyone who looks at these data closely will come to the same conclusions that the IOM came to, which is that the vaccine schedule is well-tested and safe.

Hopefully, for some patients in your practice, this review by a group of independent investigators will be convincing. I suspect that some patients, no matter what the data show, will still choose not to get vaccines. This is unfortunate because then we simply have to keep our fingers crossed and hope that children don't suffer as a result of that choice, whereas we wouldn't have to keep our fingers crossed and depend on luck if people simply got vaccines. I hope the IOM study will help.

Thank you for your attention.

Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Feb 4, 2013 - 11:43am PT
I'm down with the flue - I've run a 102 fever for three days now, and I had the flu shot. However, I knew ahead of time that there was another flu out there not covered by the shot. I'm still getting my shot again next year. Two or more rounds of different flus in one winter I don't need.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:45pm PT
So, Ron, what you're saying is "It's better to be lucky than smart?"

One of my wife's pregnant patients refused the vaccine and is now in the
ICU on a ventilator and both she and her baby are not expected to make it.
Not only is that stupid but it is also selfish.
Anastasia

climber
Home
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:51pm PT
There is a valid connection between schizophrenia and cats.

There is not a valid connection between vaccines and autism.

Still people keep their cats and parents avoid vaccines because... Human are emotional, illogical, beings. Cats appear so much nicer than that strange fluid filled needle.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 12:56pm PT
What's that got to do with the flu and the inflation rate in Zambia?
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:07pm PT
Ron: And as far as immunizations and the prolific use of antibiotics,, weve created these newer strains of ever developing and morphing bacterias. Have we not?

All bacteria, viruses, and even humans are "ever developing and morphing". Some bacteria do so in the presence of over-prescribed antibiotics and so become resistant to them. We don't have antibiotics for viruses - we have vaccines. We also have bacterial vaccines like DPT, TB, Typhoid, and Cholera.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:11pm PT
Sorry, I thought we were talking about immunizations, arguably one of science's
greatest contributions to humanity.

If you mean to make the point that anti-biotics are over-prescribed and are
contributing to the evolution of resistant strains then fine. But that is
a different subject.

Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Feb 4, 2013 - 01:16pm PT
And as far as immunizations and the prolific use of antibiotics,, weve created these newer strains of ever developing and morphing bacterias. Have we not?


I think it IS fair to say that overuse of antibiotics has resulted in resistant strains.

However, I've never seen that assertion for vaccines.
rectorsquid

climber
Lake Tahoe
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:28pm PT
There was a time when you could get very sick from a vaccine. People should not trust science any more blindly than they should trust anything or anyone else blindly.

Unfortunately, a healthy social distrust in any large authoritarian power, like scientists, leads to some individuals having an unhealthy distrust.

That said, we are far past the time when distrust of vaccines is at all helpful. Even when they were a bit more dangerous, their overall social benefit was worth the risk to any individual.

It does make sense though that as something becomes commonplace and less people speak out about its potential hazards, the fearful (functionally insane) people start to get agitated. Eventually, they see the lack of concern as a big conspiracy against them. The fact that no one sane ever actually thought that contrails were chemical trails really freaks out those types of people.

I know a die hard science type of guy who got a flu shot just because he believed it was better for society as a whole that he did so. He swears that it gave him the flu or at least didn't protect him at all from it. I'll bet he'll avoid that shot for a few years.

Dave
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Feb 4, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
The current statistics for this flu shot is that it protects 62% from getting
it and that if you do get it then it mitigates the symptoms considerably.
I'll take 62% any day. Hell, bat .300 and you're a lock for the Hall of Fame.
rottingjohnny

Sport climber
mammoth lakes ca
Feb 4, 2013 - 02:05pm PT
Cosmic....I understand wheat-grass enemas are another immunization tactic for the flu virus....Do you administer those..?
Heyzeus

climber
Hollywood,Ca
Feb 4, 2013 - 08:51pm PT
No link between shots and autism but there IS a link between the flu shot and developing narcolepsy in children in Europe. Doesn't seem to be a problem in the U.S. as we do not allow the "adjuvant" or booster here. A story I read a couple of weeks ago on it was heartbreaking. Narcolepsy is far from benign and quite tragic for the girl I read about.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/uk-study-strengthens-between-gsk-flu-shot-narcolepsy-114619475.html
Jan

Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
Feb 4, 2013 - 09:19pm PT
Influenza is caused by viruses. Therefore overuse of antibiotics has no effect on them. Overuse of antibiotics has affected the growth of resistant bacteria however.
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Feb 21, 2013 - 09:18pm PT
Flu vaccine not very effective for seniors this year.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-204_162-57570589/cdc-flu-vaccine-only-provided-9-percent-protection-for-seniors-against-worst-strain/

Effectiveness is defined by whether one needed outpatient medical visits due to the flu, so lots more just suffered at home.
Degaine

climber
Feb 22, 2013 - 05:32am PT
For all those who have written that the overuse of antibiotics has prompted the growth of highly resistant bacteria, this is not only due to human use.

A large part of this phenomenon can be traced to factory farming and extreme overuse of antibiotics. Factory farming has also become the breeding grounds for extremely virulent strains of flu that yes humans can catch.

A good part of the blow back regarding vaccination is due to pharmaceutical industry greed and unwillingness to be straightforward with the public and doctors with regard to potential long term side effects of a who variety of products, including vaccines.

mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Nov 4, 2013 - 05:26pm PT
Good times

http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/11/04/240278593/getting-your-microbes-analyzed-raises-big-privacy-issues
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Mar 24, 2014 - 02:01pm PT
http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/22/health/india-end-of-polio/index.html?hpt=hp_t3

India beats the odds, beats polio

Howrah District, India (CNN) -- Rukhsar Khatoon is too young to fully grasp the significance of her life: that she is a last in a country of 1.2 billion people.
She has become the greatest symbol of India's valiant -- and successful -- effort to rid itself of a crippling and potentially deadly disease. Rukhsar, 4, is the final documented case of polio in India.

Her parents, Abdul Shah, 32, and Shobejan Begum, 30, blame themselves for their child's suffering. They had their other children vaccinated, but not Rukhsar. She was a sickly child, in and out of hospital with liver infections and diarrhea. They thought it safer not to subject her to more medication.

Rukhsar's father Abdul Shah blames himself and says he thought she would never walk again.

It wasn't until little Rukhsar's right foot swelled and twisted in early 2011 that her parents took her to a hospital in nearby Beleghata for tests. She was just 18 months old when doctors confirmed the worst: Rukhsar had polio.

Polio is caused by a virus that attacks the brain and spinal cord cells that move joints and muscles. About one-third of those who contract polio in India are left paralyzed -- as was Rukhsar.

"There were three keys to our success," Kapur says. "Immunize, immunize and immunize."
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jan 22, 2015 - 09:20am PT
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/22/the-devastating-impact-of-vaccine-deniers-in-one-measles-chart/?tid=trending_strip_4
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 22, 2015 - 09:48am PT
Aren't vaccines verboten under Sharia law?
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jan 22, 2015 - 09:54am PT
I do wonder how bad these epidemics have to get before the thinking will change again in favor of vaccines. If it was the adults who were getting sick, I wouldn't mind, but it is innocent children suffering and dying because of the adults and their uninformed thinking.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Oregon
Jan 23, 2015 - 05:28pm PT

Jan 22, 2015 - 09:48am PT
Aren't vaccines verboten under Sharia law?

Um... Reilly. Even if there were such a thing as a uniform Sharia law, Ask yourself how Smallpox was virtually wiped off the face of the earth without countries under sharia laws cooperating. Some of the countries under sharia law are in what were formerly the hardest hit parts of the world. And the first known widespread vaccination regimens were in the Ottoman Empire in the early 1700's. Western doctors learned it from them.

The reasons that the eradication isn't complete has mostly to do with reaching people in remote areas, and with Western countries stopping regular vaccinations for the disease

In Saudia Arabia, you can't get a birth certificate for your kid until you show it has had the first round of shots.

You might be confusing sharia with Amish, as some sects of that religion are opposed to vaccinations.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jan 23, 2015 - 05:48pm PT
Lorenzo, I was just equating stupid is as stupid does. Sharia is stupid
and not getting yer kids vaccinated is stupid. I was mainly thinking of
the Taliban in Pakistan killing workers who were vaccinating people.
Lorenzo

Trad climber
Oregon
Jan 23, 2015 - 05:52pm PT
Sorry, I didn't get that your argument was so subtle.
Bill Mc Kirgan

Trad climber
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Jan 23, 2015 - 07:34pm PT
Did anyone mention Andy?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Wakefield
kunlun_shan

Mountain climber
SF, CA
Jan 23, 2015 - 08:01pm PT
Interesting, but short news story about the "Canadian problem", where "people who receive flu vaccines year after year can sometimes show reduced protection". And "seasonal flu vaccination almost doubled the risk of infection with pandemic flu."

Says the issue is "imperfect vaccines" intended for "a moving target of strains".

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/topstories/flu-vaccine-paradox-adds-to-public-health-debate-1.2912790
GDavis

Social climber
SOL CAL
Jan 23, 2015 - 08:18pm PT
Got my flu shot thanks to obummercare, combined with my decently healthy lifestyle I should outlive locker and his glue shack no problem!
healyje

Trad climber
Portland, Oregon
Jan 24, 2015 - 05:20pm PT
Yes, flu mutates, which makes the kind of vaccines we produce today an annual best guess. Changing that requires the development of a more 'universal' vaccine which would work against some aspect of the flu surface proteins which doesn't change, or changes much more slowly (or 'conserved'), as the flu mutates and hopefully is present in all flu strains.

Today's vaccines work by attempting to recognize the head of a mushroom-shaped protein on the flu's surface as opposed to its stem. The head portion of the protein mutates at a faster rate then the stem making it the target of a lot of 'universal' flu vaccine research.

STANFORD RESEARCHERS TAKE A STEP TOWARD DEVELOPING A ‘UNIVERSAL’ FLU VACCINE



More in-depth: Options and Obstacles for Designing a Universal Influenza Vaccine
apogee

climber
Technically expert, safe belayer, can lead if easy
Mar 2, 2015 - 06:30pm PT
That's goddam funny, JB. And spot-on.

I take exception, though, to the choice of words used by those docs at the start of their rant:
"I'm xxx, and I believe in vaccinations."

This ain't no goddam religion...this is science, and medicine. Facts stand by themselves...you can either choose to acknowledge them, or stick your head in the sand (which is up your arse) and ignore them.
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Mar 3, 2015 - 10:07am PT
For a lot of educated parents videos like the above are counter productive. I'm not going to give my children something for herd immunity that can cause:

Deafness.
Long-term seizures, coma, lowered consciousness.
Permanent brain damage.

Without thorough and accurate knowledge of the risks involved. When my son was born in 2001 we couldn't find actual statistics and we delayed some of his shots. It's gotten much better lately. Not all parents don't immunize because of beliefs, some don't immunize because of lack of scientific understanding of the risks. Or some kids have bad reactions to one shot and the parents don't want to risk more shots.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Mar 3, 2015 - 10:23am PT
My wife has had patients who wanted the Ebola vaccine but refused the flu vaccine.

What is really needed in this country is a brain vaccine.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 3, 2015 - 09:57pm PT
Ok, since I started this post, we've come aways.

http://www.polioeradication.org/Dataandmonitoring/Poliothisweek.aspx

There was a setback in 2014, with 359 cases worldwide.

Through last week, there have been 25 in the world, and now it seem confined to 2 countries, down from 11 last year.

All due to vaccines.

Another emerging success, although not vaccine controlled, is Guinea Worm:

http://www.cartercenter.org/health/guinea_worm/case-totals.html

When The Carter Center began leading the international campaign to eradicate Guinea worm disease in 1986, there were an estimated 3.5 million cases in 21 countries in Africa and Asia. Today, that number has been reduced by more than 99.99 percent, with the vast majority of cases remaining in South Sudan.

In 2014, 126 cases of Guinea worm disease were reported worldwide.

Through April, in 2015, the number is THREE, worldwide.
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jun 4, 2015 - 12:52am PT
I guess as long as you implicitly trust big pharmaceutical companies then its no problem. Who do you work for Ken?
dirtbag

climber
Jun 4, 2015 - 05:16am PT
Yes studly, efforts to eradicate guinea worn (not through vaccines, btw) and polio haven't greatly improved the human condition.
survival

Big Wall climber
Terrapin Station
Jun 4, 2015 - 09:15am PT
I'm not going to give my children something for herd immunity that can cause:



The Fet, I know you're a smart guy, and I see your point, but I would guess you'd have to admit that the big picture goals and missions of vaccines have been an overwhelming success, I mean in terms of global suffering, which there is still plenty of.

For a lot of educated parents videos like the above are counter productive.
That's a first world problem I'd say.


How would you feel about the total disappearance of vaccines? Or if none of the community around you was vaccinated for anything?

The truth is that much more massive numbers of people have died from giant outbreaks of disease than have been injured by vaccines.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 4, 2015 - 09:19am PT
This is so tiresome.
dirtbag

climber
Jun 4, 2015 - 09:29am PT
It is, Reilly.



Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 4, 2015 - 09:35am PT
I'm looking forward to seeing third world comedians spoof first world ignorance about vaccines.
Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 4, 2015 - 09:47am PT
Only in America can one be considered a caring parent if you don't spank yer kid yet you
refuse them a smallpox or polio vaccine. Do we have lead water pipes?
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 4, 2015 - 10:31am PT
Only in America can one be considered a caring parent if you don't spank yer kid yet you
refuse them a smallpox or polio vaccine. Do we have lead water pipes?

Thankfully, smallpox was eradicated from the world in 1980. We no longer vaccinate children for it. So it is easy to forget what it was like. I've never seen a case.

The disease killed an estimated 400,000 Europeans annually during the closing years of the 18th century (including five reigning monarchs),[10] and was responsible for a third of all blindness.[6][11] Of all those infected, 20–60 percent — and over 80 percent of infected children — died from the disease.[12] Smallpox was responsible for an estimated 300–500 million deaths during the 20th century.[13][14][15] As recently as 1967, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 15 million people contracted the disease and that two million died in that year.[5]
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 4, 2015 - 10:32am PT
Studly, I am retired. However, I was independently in practice virtually my whole career, and did not collect a paycheck from anyone.

Who do YOU work for?
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jun 4, 2015 - 10:45am PT
I thought you might be tied to medical or pharma Ken. I work for myself. and I make my own decisions. I advocate a vegetarian diet and healthy lifestyle, rather then what our medical society today advocates which is not prevention but trying to get people hooked on prescription drugs and other medical services. I am neither pro nor against all vaccinations. Some have done much good. But anything from Big Pharma nowadays I will look at with great skepticism.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:10am PT
Exactly ^^

Big Pharma is here to make money. Period. If they can make more money than they'll lose hurting people, they will. There is no moral component to their MO... They are not here to help anything but their bottom line.

I was one of the unfortunate folks to be injected with the Lymerix vaccine years ago which turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. It ended up costing the company more money in lawsuits than it made them so they pulled it.

The only real way to know if a vaccine is "safe" is a decade or so of guinea pigs before you. Some are good, some are certainly not.
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:24am PT
How would you feel about the total disappearance of vaccines? Or if none of the community around you was vaccinated for anything?

The truth is that much more massive numbers of people have died from giant outbreaks of disease than have been injured by vaccines.

This isn't an all or nothing question are far as I'm concerned. As I posted:
Without thorough and accurate knowledge of the risks involved.

My point was this isn't just about "beliefs", it's about being able to make an informed decision and not blindly trusting a multi-billion dollar industry and the government to make decisions for my family.

Of course I feel the total disappearance of vaccines would be terrible and if the community wasn't vaccinated it would be terrible. And yes vaccines for the most part have helped tremendously. And my kids have gotten most or all of their vaccines (my wife keeps track of medical stuff), but we delayed some of them.

To me it's about being able to make an informed decision as a parent about the actual risks and benefits for EACH vaccine. What I'm not going to do is blindly give my kids all the vaccines because the government, heavily influenced by the vaccine manufacturers, is telling me to. Those are decisions that I and my wife are going to make based on the best available information.

There are some vaccines available in Europe that appear safer than those used in the US (different preservatives, etc). But if you want them in the US you have to pay out the ass to get them and get them shipped to the US. Why, because the vaccine industry has already decided that for us.

Like I said it has gotten much better. When my son was born in 2001 the pamphlets they gave out said things like "slight risk of serious complications like seizure, deafness, death". And I asked the Doctor what does "slight risk" mean statistically? Like 1 in a million, 1 in 10,000? And they said, "we don't know". Really? This industry makes billions of dollars and they can't fund studies and communicate the actual risks and produce literature to compare that to the risk of getting the disease or what would happen to the chance of getting the disease over time if people don't vaccinate?

About 700 people have died since 2000 from vaccines. Of course MANY more would have died from disease. But anything I'm going to do to my children with the risk of death must be well explained.

Maybe they heard enough feedback over the years because the information was much better in 2009 when my younger son was born. The pamphlets gave actual statistics.

So long winded, but I guess my point is that if you want people to vaccinate with things that do present some risk you need to clearly communicate the risks and benefits, at least for people like me that want to make an informed decision and are not going to just trust the govt. and industry on what's best for their kids.

It bugs me that now they want to pass a bill to force ALL vaccines on all kids in California. If a kid misses 1 shot they are considered "unvaccinated". Like I said my kids are vaccinated, but we waited and spaced them out compared to the recommended schedules. They want us to give up that kind of choice and freedom.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:28am PT
Certain types of viruses lend themselves to well proven practices for very safe vaccination. For example the new papiloma vaccinations are excellent.

In clinical trials of 30,000 people, potential side effects ranging from fever to death occurred at the same rate whether patients were given a saline solution placebo or Gardasil. Deaths occurred in 0.1% of people in either group.

This is just a tiny sample of the information available and it is all easy to look up.

This type of information is very useful if you have concerns and wish to educate yourself. This should make it clear that the benefits FAR exceed any perceived but unmeasured risk.
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:29am PT
Studly and fear had some good posts above as I wrote mine.

The only real way to know if a vaccine is "safe" is a decade or so of guinea pigs before you. Some are good, some are certainly not.

One of the vaccines they wanted to give to my son was only a couple years old. Finally after grilling the doctor about it for a while she admitted they don't know much about the long term risk, and the risk of the disease for that vaccine was very low. We decided to wait on that one.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:52am PT
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/side-effects.htm

There are risks with some. By far most side effects are merely discomforting in nature.

There are some severe risks. But the risk of severe reaction clearly associated with some vaccinations while real are in all cases far far (orders of magnitude) rarer than the risks associated with non vaccination.

Which makes sense when one thinks about it...if this were not true there would not be such vaccines. For various reasons not requiring good faith.

It does not take 10 years of non trial data to determine these things. in fact non trial data is a much less efficient way of detecting possible problems. Lack of controls make it extremely difficult or impossible to use reliably. At best it may suggest an issue that then must be followed up with a strict regimen of research.
nature

climber
Boulder, CO
Jun 4, 2015 - 12:01pm PT
I'm anti-vax. only 97.2% of all scientific studies on the subject show them to work, well, that just isn't good enough for me.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jun 4, 2015 - 12:02pm PT
No that is not the only way to know. Certain types of viruses lend themselves to well proven practices for very safe vaccination. For example the new papiloma vaccinations are excellent.

In clinical trials of 30,000 people, potential side effects ranging from fever to death occurred at the same rate whether patients were given a saline solution placebo or Gardasil. Deaths occurred in 0.1% of people in either group.

This type of information is very useful and should make it clear that the benefits FAR exceed any percieved but unmeasured risk.

You can't possibly know all the potential effects of any NEW vaccine on a massive population over decades without actually releasing it into that population. It MIGHT be fine, but the first wave of brave people are glorified guinea pigs. A 30,000 person trial over a couple of years paid for by the corporation (no conflicts there I'm sure) means little.

Again, I'm not "anti-vaccine" either, just realize these companies are by and large couldn't care less about your health as long as their ROI comes back as fast as possible so they can get their bonuses before the lawsuits bankrupt the firm.

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 4, 2015 - 12:05pm PT
Happy birthday moose.

I would make my decision this way. Anytime the risk of difference is 100x or better in favor of vaccine then vaccinate.

I'm guessing that covers nearly all of them but I suppose there may be some rare regionally dangerous diseases not worth any risk of vaccination.

For example if they came up with an ebola vaccine I wouldn't take it here in Nevada.

regarding possible subtle side effects that wont show up for decades? The components of vaccines simply don't lend themselves to those types of side effects. Nothing carcinogenic or hormonal in their makeup. Possibly thimerisol (heavymetal) but that HAS been studied for decades and not found to be a problem. One can if worried about it pay extra for non thimerisol versions.

By far the biggest risks are high fevers and allergic reactions. Fairly immediate onset issues.

There is no way uncontrolled sampling can compete with controlled study. You may or may not catch something in an uncontrolled study.. but then you will need a controlled study to verify it anyway. More likely you will find coincidental problems not associated. Yet people will jump to conclusions based on coincidence.

climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 4, 2015 - 12:24pm PT
What bugs me is that people somehow think that a few minutes of reading a layman article can compete with a decade or more of intense study multiplied over thousands of individuals most of whom are dedicated to getting this right for all of us.

I don't trust corporations in some ways but I do trust what I said above. Also killing lots of innocent people with your product tends not to be profitable. Yes there are short term rare exceptions.


It's like a newbie 1 day gym climber telling Mark Hudon and the whole climbing community how to wall climb and that goldline is the right way to do it.. Worse actually.
fear

Ice climber
hartford, ct
Jun 4, 2015 - 12:53pm PT
Climbski, what's the root motivation of any large public corporation?

To do good works?

To make the world a better place?

And killing your customers isn't a problem with the right lawyers and marketing in place. Phillip and Morris turn a profit every year and kill plenty producing products of zero societal value.

Reilly

Mountain climber
The Other Monrovia- CA
Jun 4, 2015 - 01:02pm PT
Why do all you card-carrying Robespierre Chowder and Marching Society members
think that everybody that works for a corporation is the devil incarnate?
I know a couple of high ranking execs in a major pharma company and, trust
me, they're humans. They aren't against making their company some money but
they're certainly not gonna do it while marching over dead bodies, like you
lot would to prove your inanely over-simplified points.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 4, 2015 - 01:04pm PT
I did say there were exceptions.. and i did say innocent consumers not ones who knowingly make a poor choice.

I also said there were thousands of very dedicated expert people involved in the development of vaccines that do so to save lives. The chance to save lives one of the main very real allures of the medical research field.

I worked in medical research briefly. Quickly realizing that labwork drives me crazy. I'm not built for it unfortunately. Endless meticulousness...pipetting, note taking , databasing and calculating...in noisy humming rooms..aaaahhg..

Liquid nitrogen is fun though.
Jan

Mountain climber
Colorado, Nepal & Okinawa
Jun 4, 2015 - 01:05pm PT
The major reason birthrates are coming down all over the developing world is that infant death rates have fallen so people no longer feel the need to have 3-5 of each gender in order to have a couple alive in their old age. The reason they've fallen is vaccinations, rehydration therapy and in some cases clean drinking water. Primarily however, it has been vaccinations which have given parents the confidence to have fewer children.

Most people on the Taco are too young to remember having all the diseases that we now vaccinate for. I'm old enough however, to remember children in iron lungs and the day all the church bells in America rang out to celebrate that a polio vaccine had finally been invented. For people who lived through those times, it's beyond ironic that parents are now refusing the same vaccines.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 4, 2015 - 01:50pm PT
Like I said it has gotten much better. When my son was born in 2001 the pamphlets they gave out said things like "slight risk of serious complications like seizure, deafness, death". And I asked the Doctor what does "slight risk" mean statistically? Like 1 in a million, 1 in 10,000? And they said, "we don't know". Really? This industry makes billions of dollars and they can't fund studies and communicate the actual risks and produce literature to compare that to the risk of getting the disease or what would happen to the chance of getting the disease over time if people don't vaccinate?

About 700 people have died since 2000 from vaccines. Of course MANY more would have died from disease. But anything I'm going to do to my children with the risk of death must be well explained.

Ok you keep demanding high-quality research. What is your source for the 700, because I can't find that.
the Fet

climber
Tu-Tok-A-Nu-La
Jun 4, 2015 - 02:25pm PT
Why is that when you question blindly following the whole program people assume you are rejecting all vaccines and demand you provide evidence to support your position. I'm not the govt. in not the industry. It's not my job to figure this stuff out and communicate it. I can't remember where I heard 700 people died from vaccines but I did a quick web search and the CDC shows a "less than 1 in a million" chance of death from allergic reactions to common vaccines.

So we are asking parents to take that very small but real chance of giving their kids something that could kill them. If you are asking me to do that I need the information to make an informed decision. And that's my point. Don't just tell me to do it, tell me why it's a good idea.

Yes there are quacks out there and bad information rejecting vaccines but they need to counter that with reasonable fact based arguments. Not just "do it or you are stupid". That sh#t don't fly with me.

And again my kids did get their vaccines after we spent a lot of time doing research and using the best information available. It shouldn't be like that the pamphlets they give everyone should be complete or at least have a link to a website which really explains the risks and benefits.
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Jun 4, 2015 - 06:07pm PT
I can understand having concerns especially with the amount of misinformation that has been passed around for the last 10 years. But you kinda make my point.. once even moderately informed it becomes clear that the recommended vaccines should be taken. Perhaps you decide to pay extra for a certain type or change the schedule slightly but those are fairly minor adjustments to the general medical advice.

Sadly some people have a hard time comprehending the weighing of risk..and cannot come to term with the fact that there are no guarantees. Thus their bad decisions can put a lot of people at much higher and unnecessary risk. In these cases it is right to have laws requiring the good decisions.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 4, 2015 - 06:39pm PT
It's not my job to figure this stuff out and communicate it.

I agree....and yet, here you are quoting numbers that you can't back up.

Whose job is it? Generally, it is the Pediatrician and Family Practice doctors, who train for many years to be able to interpret the information.

Those doctors are NOT on the payroll of Pharma, nor in most cases, the gov't (I guess unless they are military docs), so there is no conflict of interest.
For most docs in private practice, vaccines are a break-even or even money losing proposition. No financial incentive to give them, and a pain in the ass to deal with.

The question of the actual risk, and the difficulty in assessing this: The system of drug safety in the country requires that in testing, if anyone has a "reaction" or a death---from any cause---it MUST be listed in the packaging of the drug. Even if it had nothing to do with administration of the drug/vaccine. This is why there can never be a risk-free vaccine.

When you get down to these very tiny, basically immeasurable rates, you see them described as "less than 1 in a million", which really means it is so low that it can't be measured relative to the normal risks of living.
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 4, 2015 - 07:07pm PT
So, another way of looking at this, is by assessing outcomes for the last 30 years.

In the past three decades, the United States has made across-the-board progress in improving the rates of mortality among children (from birth to age 19). For example, the child and teen mortality rate has improved by 43%, dropping from 46 deaths per 100,000 children and teens in 1990 to 26 per 100,000 (representing 10,800 fewer deaths) in 2011.

http://www.aecf.org/blog/mortality-rates-for-children-improved-across-the-board/?gclid=Cj0KEQjw7r-rBRDE_dXtgLz9-e4BEiQATeKG7GgSS2VXZiWMfentFQXuOcQTO5WUIZfMYvq9radZjAcaAg9i8P8HAQ

The highest rate of vaccination completion is in the state of Penn. And yet, it's infant mortality rate is about the same as Florida, which has an average vaccination rate. What does this mean? It means the rate of deaths that could be due to vaccines is below the threshold of measurement.


http://datacenter.kidscount.org/data/Bar/6051-infant-mortality?loc=1&loct=2#2/2,11,23,40/false/867/any/12719

http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/coverage/nis/child/tables/13/tab03_antigen_state_2013.pdf
Ken M

Mountain climber
Los Angeles, Ca
Topic Author's Reply - Jun 4, 2015 - 07:17pm PT
here is a real national disgrace:

If you move to Finland or Sweden to have a pregnancy, you cut the risk of infant mortality by TWO THIRDS! (First graph)

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr63/nvsr63_05.pdf
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:36pm PT
Immunizations, what has REALLY happened? Seems they don't want you to know about allot of them.
http://www.sharylattkisson.com/government-wipes-recent-vaccine-injury-data-from-website/
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jun 4, 2015 - 11:47pm PT
All kinds of things going on we don't know about... but just make vaccinations mandatory, real smart..
[Click to View YouTube Video]
Degaine

climber
Jun 5, 2015 - 12:04am PT
Reilly wrote:
Only in America can one be considered a caring parent if you don't spank yer kid yet you
refuse them a smallpox or polio vaccine. Do we have lead water pipes?


Well, I don't spank my kids, and I've made sure my kids have had all of their vaccinations.

In your cynical-sarcastic-disgusted tone, you're not actually trying to insinuate that to be a good parent I need to hit my kids, are you?
Degaine

climber
Jun 5, 2015 - 12:12am PT
Reilly wrote:
Why do all you card-carrying Robespierre Chowder and Marching Society members
think that everybody that works for a corporation is the devil incarnate?
I know a couple of high ranking execs in a major pharma company and, trust
me, they're humans. They aren't against making their company some money but
they're certainly not gonna do it while marching over dead bodies, like you
lot would to prove your inanely over-simplified points.

If the FDA or EFSA do their jobs and pharma companies respect the law, then there a good balance can be struck. In most European countries it is illegal to advertise a prescription drug on TV or in mass media. This is to avoid uneducated patients trying to bully their doctors into prescribing drugs that they don't need.

I think that vaccines and other drugs and medications have done wonders for world health. But don't kid yourself, while your buddies may be human, big pharma is in it for the money. Hell, most big pharma companies nowadays hardly do any research, their the medical industry's equivalent of the big investment banks, buying and selling brands to develop a portfolio that will make them money. The heavy lifting in research is done by startup biotech firms that then hope to be acquired if the efficacy of their drug turns out as planned. And big pharma prefers manageable diseases hands down, like diabetes and AIDS, to curing diseases.

Again, I won't demonize pharma, but the industry is not the saintly other as you would imply.
Studly

Trad climber
WA
Jun 5, 2015 - 02:14am PT
[Click to View YouTube Video]
climbski2

Mountain climber
Anchorage AK, Reno NV
Aug 2, 2015 - 02:35pm PT
Amazing 12 month breakthrough on Ebola vaccine.

Thank-you modern science. This sounds very promising.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/31/ebola-vaccine-trial-proves-100-successful-in-guinea

http://www.thelancet.com/pb/assets/raw/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673615611175.pdf
dirtbag

climber
Aug 2, 2015 - 02:41pm PT

Immunizations, what has REALLY happened? Seems they don't want you to know about allot of them.

On no...it's the THEY.


THEY say: "Boo!"
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