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madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:08am PT
Got it. The stats I'm looking at don't make that distinction, though, so I don't either. You'd have to point to a source delineating the difference statistically - I suppose the FBI murder stats showing around 8800 murders as opposed to 12000 are doing just that.

Right. That's why I looked up how the FBI defines their terms, because only when finding their disclaimers and definitions can you get clear about what they are really saying. That's what I posted up-thread.

I don't buy even 8800 murders, however, because that doesn't even come close to a correlation with the cooked CDC data, which would put the figure at closer to 4000.

But, as I just said, this is nickel and diming the issue. I think we're getting clearer about what's driving the "too much" intuition, and that's that a LOT of people are dying (67% of all homicides, in fact) from guns.

So, let's focus on that statistic, if that sounds good to you. That's one that seems clear to us all, I think, and it's one I'm not inclined to debate the "factuality" of.

What to MAKE of it is the next step, imo.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:10am PT
MadBolter,, Crimpergirl on here is a crime stat analyst. She has explained the many things not accurately tracked by the FBI. Things like CCW permit holders not being tallied, which seems odd to me, but that if far from the only shortcomings. Even estimates of guns used to thwart crimes varies from 180K per year to the millions. Those "stats" can be found all over the net and ive posted them here as well.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:18am PT
Plea bargaining, botched investigation and so forth probably have a small impact on the number, as would the distinction between murder vs homicide vs justifiable. Statistically I would expect the margin of error to be fairly small. The overall question would be in how you try to fix result, in any case. Now I understand, hedge, that your advocating for the repeal of the 2nd would, if the guns were removed from society, effectively eliminate death by gun. Unfortunately, here, in the foreseeable future, it's not a practical solution.

So I think the rest of us are stuck debating what to change, and how effective any change would be, given the current trend in public policy. Granted, IF you could eliminate ALL the guns in our society, well then there wouldn't be any deaths by gun (yeah, some people have lathes and stuff. It'd be a statistical anomaly).
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:18am PT
So why wouldn't that work both ways?

In theory it could. However, the very nature of LEO investigations is such that "homicides" are investigates as prima facie "murders." Once a homicide is "known" to be, say, a suicide, the "investigation" is over.

So, the "homicide" filter is about as course-grained as you can get, and it reflects that an "investigation" went on the books. But an "investigation" is a very, very low bar. All that means in many cases is that a cause of death hasn't yet been gotten back from a coroner's office.

The point is that "homicide investigation" gets a LOT of things "on the books" with the FBI, the majority of which (according to the CDC) are later deemed to not be "murder" but instead are, in something like 2/3 of the cases, deemed to be results of accidents or suicides. Suicides rank HUGE among "homicides" in this country, and there's no doubt (at least at present in my mind) that the easy access to guns makes it much easier for people to "just pull the trigger" than other methods that are not nearly as reliable causes of death.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:22am PT
Seems there may be a lack of reliable data in some cases. Stuck with what we've got.
meh. I've not got enough sleep
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Apr 8, 2013 - 02:27am PT
Are justifiable homicides counted as homicides in the homicide stats? Like when a cop shoots someone who needs to be killed?
That's "homicide" too, isn't it?
Jennie

Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
Apr 8, 2013 - 03:02am PT
Suicide vs Non-suicidal homicide by age group

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6128a8.htm


Jennie

Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
Apr 8, 2013 - 03:55am PT
I don't believe suicides are included in the annual 11,000 plus homicide statistics. This source claims that in the U.S. for 2010, there were 31,513 deaths from firearms: Suicide 19,308; Homicide 11,015; Accident 600.

http://library.med.utah.edu/WebPath/TUTORIAL/GUNS/GUNSTAT.html
Jennie

Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
Apr 8, 2013 - 04:24am PT
It seems low compared to the homicide and suicide numbers...this source says 606 deaths from "unintentional firearm injuries" in 2010.

http://smartgunlaws.org/gun-deaths-and-injuries-statistics/

I suppose most accidental firearm injuries are non-lethal. Homicides/suicides the projectile is aimed at vital areas of anatomy...accidental discharges would have a more random aspect and fewer fatal injuries. (?)
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Apr 8, 2013 - 11:10am PT
The CDC data includes in "homicides" accidents and suicides. The FBI data treats "homicides" as (pre-reviewed) cases of murder. After review, only a fraction of these "homicides" turn out to be "murder."

You don't understand statistics... or the word homicide, apparently. It is extremely unlikely that they include suicides in homicides for 2 reasons: 1) look up the definition of homicide, 2) 19,000 suicides involving firearms plus the number of actual homicides will be greater than 11,000... I promise.

If you want suicides, accidents, etc... http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/deaths_2010_release.pdf

You seem courteous and (maybe) actually curious. But you are a waste of my time. You deserve all the sh#t hedge gives to you, at least until you take some "personal responsibility" and put some effort into understanding what you are talking about.

So, you do NOT get to blithely claim "12,000 murders" as "fact" and then bash on others for not being accurate or careful with the facts.

First of all, I get to do whatever I want to do.

I absolutely get to claim 11,000+ HOMICIDES and point you directly to the CDC page. Hedge can lump in the ~600 accidental deaths that involve firearms and round up to 12,000 if he wants to. (He may have done something else when he got that 12,000, I wasn't paying attention because +/- 10% is likely not even statistically significant considering the issues involved with compiling the data). Fact is, whatever data set you look at, firearms are involved in the majority of homicides (67%) AND suicides (over half) and they are far too easy to acquire due to inadequate regulations.

Either of us can call anyone an idiot when they ignore the content provided, throw out some other numbers without backing them up, don't even understand the definition of the terms being discussed, and then pretend they are providing important contributions to the "discussion."

YOUR very simplistic claims are the ones I've been calling you on, and at every step you just move the target.

The only thing you have called out with any clarity is "I'm an idiot!"



And a huge thanks to hillrat for being reasonable gun owner and chiming in. These issues would be resolved much quicker and easier if more reasonable people like him would speak up.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:08pm PT
I went a little overboard yesterday and I apologize to (most of) those I offended.

yesterday?

only yesterday?

try every day


now, having said that Joe, you did just man up and said the right thing, something that very few people do

its not that what you say is wrong, because it is not, it is how you say it

While you and I may disagree on the delivery, I understand and largely support your message

and from what other people say who know you personally, I think I would like you if we ever met
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:12pm PT
He is now emphasizing that 67% of all homicides (murders, accidents, suicides) are gun-caused!

NOPE. Suicides are not homicides. If you want to lump all homicides and accidents and suicides, it would be more like 21,000+ gun related deaths.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:14pm PT
Thanks for the public apology jghedge. I too apologize for the offensive things i,ve said to you. Thanks for curbing it a bit. Makes it much more likely to consider your point of view.

Doesnt mean we agree, as i continue to view hunting, self defense, and target shooting as legitimate reasons to own guns. That said, there may be some reasonable compromise to be made.
Toker Villain

Big Wall climber
Toquerville, Utah
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:18pm PT
But,.... I thought there was no sporting reason to own a compromise.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:36pm PT
Some would say there,s no sporting compromise you can reasonably reach.

So pretty much, any gun can kill. Once you start banning specific types, it,s probably just a matter of time until bb guns get the chop. It,s also likely that whatever,s left as legal will be the types that eventually end up in common usage both legal and criminal. It,s kind of a one-way road that eventually punishes the average owner, but doesn,t fix the overall crime problem.

I happen to think we can do better, without giving up tradition and practicality.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:49pm PT
Once you start banning specific types, it,s probably just a matter of time until bb guns get the chop

do you really believe what you said, Hilltop?

think about it, we already "bann" many kinds of weapons from civilian ownership

and have for decades

and yet, bb guns have NOT been banned, have they?


anyway, ain't nothing gong to get banned, not even large round clips

in fact, it is looking very doubtful that even a bill putting tougher penalties on straw buyers and more expanded background check will ever become law, much less come up for a vote
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:53pm PT
Once you start banning specific types, it,s probably just a matter of time until bb guns get the chop.

AK47 were banned under Ronny Raygun, right? That was quite a while ago. I'm not aware of other specific types that have been banned since. I think you have heard of the slippery slope so many times you assume it may actually exist.

It,s kind of a one-way road that eventually punishes the average owner, but doesn,t fix the overall crime problem.

Both of those are assumptions. Bans on guns have been lifted (Washington DC, among others). So just because things get banned doesn't mean they will always be banned.

We have never had a coordinated federal effort to ensure the competence and responsibility of gun purchasers. We don't KNOW if it will reduce crime, but clearly when anyone who hasn't been convicted of a felony (yet) can walk into a gun store and buy 2 guns a week without raising any flags, something should be changed.

I happen to think we can do better, without giving up tradition and practicality.

That's because you are reasonable.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:53pm PT
I think it could in time. More likely to see it on the state level 1st, like CA and NY. National could follow eventually, and i think it would be a regrettable shame.

Mental health and universal backgrounds i would personally have no issue with, but thats just my opinion.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:59pm PT
Norton its a natural draw down really. Theres better ways to reduce homicides here in the USA.

Its kinda like entering into any Nuclear diss-arming in the world. They WONT be going away. They were invented and are here. And so is the technology which expands by the day. I doubt the will ever all just "go away" for as long as predictable futures are..

And perhaps, because of all the up roar over the horrific school shooting, people will now take more notice of whos on mind altering drugs. Maybe they will volunteer that info when they think it to be critical- all without having some law that makes them criminal if they dont? WE THE PEOPLE can do any damm thing if WE THE PEOPLE pay more attention.
15 years or more ago, i had a friend who called up a couple of us to ask if we could come get his guns. He was in a bad way emotionally. A friend and myself went right over, collected every weapon he had including knives.

He eventually got over things and on with his life and his weapons were returned to live happily ever after. It doesnt and truly shouldnt be just about more laws that really do nothing but increase redundancy.
TGT

Social climber
So Cal
Apr 8, 2013 - 02:01pm PT
The Colt custom shop is moving to Texas.


http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/04/05/firearms-company-relocating-to-north-texas/


Won't be long till the rest of the plant follows I'll bet.

700 employees and 1.6 Billion leaving CT.

Magpul is leaving CO within 30 days and taking 200 jobs with them as well.
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