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Messages 4241 - 4260 of total 5937 in this topic << First  |  < Previous  |  Show All  |  Next >  |  Last >>
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:33am PT
I'm invisible.

Cups kill.
DO NOT MAKE FUN OF THE TEACUP
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:37am PT
So no, you aren't making a valid argument when you say we should focus on other causes.

At least this is a systematic point. I, of course, do not agree with it. But at least it's in the form of a reasonable discussion.

Wes then emphasizes 67% of all homicides are caused by guns. NP... no debate. The point I'm making is that the CDC data and the FBI data are saying two different things, because the CDC data is treating "homicides" very differently from the FBI data. The CDC data includes in "homicides" accidents and suicides. The FBI data treats "homicides" as (pre-reviewed) cases of murder. After review, only a fraction of these "homicides" turn out to be "murder."

So, you do NOT get to blithely claim "12,000 murders" as "fact" and then bash on others for not being accurate or careful with the facts.

It is not ME that's been "redefining" this issue. Several hundred threads back, I, ATTEMPTING to not be "obtuse," tried to get Joe to explain why he was so fixed on murder, murder, murder. HIS response was that 12,000 of them per year WAS something to get worked up about.

I, then, pointed out that there were not 12,000 MURDERS in this country per year, and that was the start of yet another round of sarcasm and calls for the data to support my claim. I was told to look at the FBI site. At THAT point, the CLAIM was still "12,000 MURDERS per year."

Well, okay, I looked at the FBI site, and I found that the FBI's data is raw and NOT indicative of 12,000 MURDERS. I came back, made THAT point, and supported it with analysis.

More sarcasm, and THEN the moving target: "murder, accidents, suicides... whatever."

NO! Not "whatever!"

The POINT on a "gun sandbox" thread is to talk about what ROLE guns actually play in all this, and there's been a LOT of pretty fluffy "analysis" in that "discussion." You and Joe being the primary perpetrators of it, along with HEAPING helpings of sarcasm and being pretty "obtuse" yourselves.

YOUR very simplistic claims are the ones I've been calling you on, and at every step you just move the target.

NOW your present target seems to be "67% of all homicides."

Fine, we can get to that one too NOW. But that has NOT been your past target. Your most consistently cited justification for the "obviousness" of the need for gun-sales laws is how outlandish "12,000 murders per year" is compared to, say, the UK's "35 murders."

So, maybe we're getting somewhere finally. At least now we're agreed (right?) that there are NOT 12,000 MURDERS by gun per year in the US. Instead, somewhere around 11,000 people die by gunshot per year in the US.

Are we agreed on THAT point? Can we now turn the the "67% of all homicides" point and, primarily, how to interpret that fact?
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:41am PT
Suppose interpretation of the facts would be thus:
be it 12k murders, or 67% of homicides, they feel it's excessive and things should be done to reduce it.

So. Looking for reduction ideas. Hedge says (without the insult-laden pomposity) repeal the 2nd. mechrist, if I've got it right, says tighten regulations. Ron, if I've got it right, says current regulation is enough and something should be done about gangs.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:46am PT
define "homicide" vs "murder" just for fun. The legal meaning IS different after all.

Do they delineate between justifiable vs murder? Sure they do... saw that posted somewhere Wayy back. It's ok, repetition is glorious.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:50am PT
And are you just not seeing that "homicides" and "murders" are not the same thing, nor are they defined the same ways?

Yes, hillrat, I get that they think it's "excessive." But before it's even possible to address that, we need to be using the same terms with the same definitions.

It's like students in an applied ethics class debating on, for example, whether or not abortion is "wrong." All of their opinions are pre-theoretical, filled with loaded language, and the participants are not even using the same WORDS. I mean, the words SOUND the same, they are pronounced the same, and all participants think they are saying the same words, but they are not. The pro-life camp says, "Life begins at conception," and the pro-choice camp says, "No it doesn't." Both use the word "life," yet it is NOT the same word, because it means vastly different things to the two sides of the debate.

And people don't think through the theoretical implications of their opinions. Instead, they just "know" certain things, and to them, such things are "obvious" (to the point that they are deeply suspicious of the honesty, intelligence, or even sanity of those that can't see the "obvious").

So, I'm trying to be sure that I really DO understand what the Joe's et al really are saying, and what their words really mean. That's not being "obtuse;" it's being careful and systematic. I agree that they probably have an overarching "It's obviously too much" sort of intuition here. But what the "it" is, and WHY "it" feels like "too much" is what needs to be pinned down.

EDIT: Sorry, hillrat, cross-posts. I was responding to Joe in my opening sentence. Oh, and I realize that YOU are not suggesting that I'm being obtuse. LOL
monolith

climber
SF bay area
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:55am PT
FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), in 2011 there were 12,664 murders and 653 justifiable homicides (of which 393 were performed by law enforcement.

So 260 justifiable homicides by non law enforcement.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded/expanded-homicide-data

Link supports the conclusion that 67% of murders are with guns and gives one an idea about the murder/justifiable homocide ratio.

BTW Madbolter, I wasn't responding to you. Relax.
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:00am PT
FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCR), in 2011 there were 12,664 murders and 653 justifiable homicides (of which 393 were performed by law enforcement.

Uh huh. I know that's what they report. And I addressed HOW they report that up-thread. This is RAW data, issued with the significant disclaimer that this data reflects the "investigation" on the incidents, PRE-review by a host of fact-finding agencies and entities, such as courts and juries.

The point is that this data calls things "murders" that (as just ONE sort of entity) a jury often later finds was NOT murder. The FBI does not then go back and "clean up" this data, which is WHY they issue the disclaimer they do.

The FBI data is RAW and PRE-review. And they even SAY that it is not "accurate" in the very sense that you and many others are claiming that it is accurate.

By contrast, the CDC data is "cooked," POST-review, and reflects the final findings on these cases. Hence, the CDC distinguishes among various types of "homicide" that the FBI lumps all together as "murder."
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:04am PT
The more pressing point, however, is the one that Wes indicated just earlier, I believe. He is now emphasizing that 67% of all homicides (murders, accidents, suicides) are gun-caused!

And I do believe that THAT statistic is the one the has the most potential for us to find common ground upon.

So, if we can focus on that one, I think we might move forward in an assessment of that one in productive fashion. That is certainly the one that, more than any I've heard yet, SCREAMS: "Houston, we have a problem!"
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:08am PT
Got it. The stats I'm looking at don't make that distinction, though, so I don't either. You'd have to point to a source delineating the difference statistically - I suppose the FBI murder stats showing around 8800 murders as opposed to 12000 are doing just that.

Right. That's why I looked up how the FBI defines their terms, because only when finding their disclaimers and definitions can you get clear about what they are really saying. That's what I posted up-thread.

I don't buy even 8800 murders, however, because that doesn't even come close to a correlation with the cooked CDC data, which would put the figure at closer to 4000.

But, as I just said, this is nickel and diming the issue. I think we're getting clearer about what's driving the "too much" intuition, and that's that a LOT of people are dying (67% of all homicides, in fact) from guns.

So, let's focus on that statistic, if that sounds good to you. That's one that seems clear to us all, I think, and it's one I'm not inclined to debate the "factuality" of.

What to MAKE of it is the next step, imo.
Ron Anderson

Trad climber
Soon to be Nipple suckling Liberal
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:10am PT
MadBolter,, Crimpergirl on here is a crime stat analyst. She has explained the many things not accurately tracked by the FBI. Things like CCW permit holders not being tallied, which seems odd to me, but that if far from the only shortcomings. Even estimates of guns used to thwart crimes varies from 180K per year to the millions. Those "stats" can be found all over the net and ive posted them here as well.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:18am PT
Plea bargaining, botched investigation and so forth probably have a small impact on the number, as would the distinction between murder vs homicide vs justifiable. Statistically I would expect the margin of error to be fairly small. The overall question would be in how you try to fix result, in any case. Now I understand, hedge, that your advocating for the repeal of the 2nd would, if the guns were removed from society, effectively eliminate death by gun. Unfortunately, here, in the foreseeable future, it's not a practical solution.

So I think the rest of us are stuck debating what to change, and how effective any change would be, given the current trend in public policy. Granted, IF you could eliminate ALL the guns in our society, well then there wouldn't be any deaths by gun (yeah, some people have lathes and stuff. It'd be a statistical anomaly).
madbolter1

Big Wall climber
Denver, CO
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:18am PT
So why wouldn't that work both ways?

In theory it could. However, the very nature of LEO investigations is such that "homicides" are investigates as prima facie "murders." Once a homicide is "known" to be, say, a suicide, the "investigation" is over.

So, the "homicide" filter is about as course-grained as you can get, and it reflects that an "investigation" went on the books. But an "investigation" is a very, very low bar. All that means in many cases is that a cause of death hasn't yet been gotten back from a coroner's office.

The point is that "homicide investigation" gets a LOT of things "on the books" with the FBI, the majority of which (according to the CDC) are later deemed to not be "murder" but instead are, in something like 2/3 of the cases, deemed to be results of accidents or suicides. Suicides rank HUGE among "homicides" in this country, and there's no doubt (at least at present in my mind) that the easy access to guns makes it much easier for people to "just pull the trigger" than other methods that are not nearly as reliable causes of death.
hillrat

Trad climber
reno, nv
Apr 8, 2013 - 01:22am PT
Seems there may be a lack of reliable data in some cases. Stuck with what we've got.
meh. I've not got enough sleep
Chaz

Trad climber
greater Boss Angeles area
Apr 8, 2013 - 02:27am PT
Are justifiable homicides counted as homicides in the homicide stats? Like when a cop shoots someone who needs to be killed?
That's "homicide" too, isn't it?
Jennie

Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
Apr 8, 2013 - 03:02am PT
Suicide vs Non-suicidal homicide by age group

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6128a8.htm


Jennie

Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
Apr 8, 2013 - 03:55am PT
I don't believe suicides are included in the annual 11,000 plus homicide statistics. This source claims that in the U.S. for 2010, there were 31,513 deaths from firearms: Suicide 19,308; Homicide 11,015; Accident 600.

http://library.med.utah.edu/WebPath/TUTORIAL/GUNS/GUNSTAT.html
Jennie

Trad climber
Elk Creek, Idaho
Apr 8, 2013 - 04:24am PT
It seems low compared to the homicide and suicide numbers...this source says 606 deaths from "unintentional firearm injuries" in 2010.

http://smartgunlaws.org/gun-deaths-and-injuries-statistics/

I suppose most accidental firearm injuries are non-lethal. Homicides/suicides the projectile is aimed at vital areas of anatomy...accidental discharges would have a more random aspect and fewer fatal injuries. (?)
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Apr 8, 2013 - 11:10am PT
The CDC data includes in "homicides" accidents and suicides. The FBI data treats "homicides" as (pre-reviewed) cases of murder. After review, only a fraction of these "homicides" turn out to be "murder."

You don't understand statistics... or the word homicide, apparently. It is extremely unlikely that they include suicides in homicides for 2 reasons: 1) look up the definition of homicide, 2) 19,000 suicides involving firearms plus the number of actual homicides will be greater than 11,000... I promise.

If you want suicides, accidents, etc... http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/deaths_2010_release.pdf

You seem courteous and (maybe) actually curious. But you are a waste of my time. You deserve all the sh#t hedge gives to you, at least until you take some "personal responsibility" and put some effort into understanding what you are talking about.

So, you do NOT get to blithely claim "12,000 murders" as "fact" and then bash on others for not being accurate or careful with the facts.

First of all, I get to do whatever I want to do.

I absolutely get to claim 11,000+ HOMICIDES and point you directly to the CDC page. Hedge can lump in the ~600 accidental deaths that involve firearms and round up to 12,000 if he wants to. (He may have done something else when he got that 12,000, I wasn't paying attention because +/- 10% is likely not even statistically significant considering the issues involved with compiling the data). Fact is, whatever data set you look at, firearms are involved in the majority of homicides (67%) AND suicides (over half) and they are far too easy to acquire due to inadequate regulations.

Either of us can call anyone an idiot when they ignore the content provided, throw out some other numbers without backing them up, don't even understand the definition of the terms being discussed, and then pretend they are providing important contributions to the "discussion."

YOUR very simplistic claims are the ones I've been calling you on, and at every step you just move the target.

The only thing you have called out with any clarity is "I'm an idiot!"



And a huge thanks to hillrat for being reasonable gun owner and chiming in. These issues would be resolved much quicker and easier if more reasonable people like him would speak up.
Norton

Social climber
the Wastelands
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:08pm PT
I went a little overboard yesterday and I apologize to (most of) those I offended.

yesterday?

only yesterday?

try every day


now, having said that Joe, you did just man up and said the right thing, something that very few people do

its not that what you say is wrong, because it is not, it is how you say it

While you and I may disagree on the delivery, I understand and largely support your message

and from what other people say who know you personally, I think I would like you if we ever met
mechrist

Gym climber
South of Heaven
Apr 8, 2013 - 12:12pm PT
He is now emphasizing that 67% of all homicides (murders, accidents, suicides) are gun-caused!

NOPE. Suicides are not homicides. If you want to lump all homicides and accidents and suicides, it would be more like 21,000+ gun related deaths.
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