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Jerry Dodrill
climber
Bodega, CA
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Topic Author's Original Post - Oct 31, 2007 - 03:09pm PT
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That's right, nice and loud, don't be shy. R E C E S S I O N! Thats better. Let's come to terms with it. By early next year they'll be saying, "the recession appears to have started last September..." but they don't want to screw up the christmas shopping season. Criminy! Mark my words. You'll see.
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Moof
Big Wall climber
A cube at my soul sucking job in Oregon
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Oct 31, 2007 - 03:19pm PT
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People get too hung up on labels. We are starting to get our first bitter tastes of humble pie. The country is living on credit cards, and it's people are living on credit cards. We are at about that point where we've run out of rugs to sweep the dirt under.
Soon we will have to pay the piper and realize that living above our means, and that we've beeb letting those in power (who own our debt) slowly buy our souls. We are at the dawn of a new era of serfdom. Tougher bankruptcy laws were put in place to keep us there. Criminally high rates and penalties are there to milk our souls til we die.
A recession is the least of our worries, a hangover from being drunk on the pumped up profits from real estate. The real situation is that we are in a very precarious position as a country. Other countries have little interest in our massive house of cards debt, and generally despise us besides. We cannot live without everyone elses manufacturing jobs, and oil reserves. The 1% at the top will be able to pick up and move to where ever they want, leaving our raped lands and economy behind.
Good times.
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Nefarius
Big Wall climber
Fresno, CA
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Oct 31, 2007 - 03:21pm PT
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I agree that we are in a precarious situation. If all we get out of it is a recession, we'll be lucky. Bad things are headed this country's way.
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Binks
Social climber
i am of the universe and you know what it's worth.
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Oct 31, 2007 - 03:40pm PT
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Oh yes it's coming.
Hard Rain Gonna Fall -Dylan
Oh, where have you been, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, where have you been, my darling young one?
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains,
I've walked and I've crawled on six crooked highways,
I've stepped in the middle of seven sad forests,
I've been out in front of a dozen dead oceans,
I've been ten thousand miles in the mouth of a graveyard,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, and it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.
Oh, what did you see, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, what did you see, my darling young one?
I saw a newborn baby with wild wolves all around it
I saw a highway of diamonds with nobody on it,
I saw a black branch with blood that kept drippin',
I saw a room full of men with their hammers a-bleedin',
I saw a white ladder all covered with water,
I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken,
I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.
And what did you hear, my blue-eyed son?
And what did you hear, my darling young one?
I heard the sound of a thunder, it roared out a warnin',
Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world,
Heard one hundred drummers whose hands were a-blazin',
Heard ten thousand whisperin' and nobody listenin',
Heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin',
Heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter,
Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.
Oh, who did you meet, my blue-eyed son?
Who did you meet, my darling young one?
I met a young child beside a dead pony,
I met a white man who walked a black dog,
I met a young woman whose body was burning,
I met a young girl, she gave me a rainbow,
I met one man who was wounded in love,
I met another man who was wounded with hatred,
And it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard,
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.
Oh, what'll you do now, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, what'll you do now, my darling young one?
I'm a-goin' back out 'fore the rain starts a-fallin',
I'll walk to the depths of the deepest black forest,
Where the people are many and their hands are all empty,
Where the pellets of poison are flooding their waters,
Where the home in the valley meets the damp dirty prison,
Where the executioner's face is always well hidden,
Where hunger is ugly, where souls are forgotten,
Where black is the color, where none is the number,
And I'll tell it and think it and speak it and breathe it,
And reflect it from the mountain so all souls can see it,
Then I'll stand on the ocean until I start sinkin',
But I'll know my song well before I start singin',
And it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard,
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.
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bachar
Trad climber
Mammoth Lakes, CA
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Oct 31, 2007 - 03:45pm PT
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Don't worry, the Fed can just print some more paper money anytime we need it!
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Oct 31, 2007 - 04:27pm PT
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Highly unlikely that your prediction will come true, Jerry.
The official definition is two successive quarterly declines in GDP. Since September ends a quarter, it is very unlikely to be the beginning of the recession.
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Mighty Hiker
Social climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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Oct 31, 2007 - 04:59pm PT
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Pick a phony fight with Iran and you can guarantee there'll be a world-wide recession, as oil prices spike.
Noting that real oil prices are only now approaching their 1979-1980 peak, notwithstanding recent relative increases.
There's certainly a lot of negative indicators - record personal debt, record government deficits and debts, collapsing real estate markets, and huge borrowings from other countries.
Watch the proportion of transactions for crude oil, and whether they're priced in euros or US dollars. The US dollar has been the de facto petro currency, thus lending it some stability - if it declines, watch out.
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ThomasKeefer
Trad climber
Between Tuscano and Liguria, Italia
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Oct 31, 2007 - 05:02pm PT
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You should take a trip to Italy and see what is up over here...
So lets say you are a fully qualified Architecht and past your first internship... You will get hired making 1000euros (1450 USD) a month! So then you say, well rents are lower. Actually they are slightly lower but not much..
This is not unusual. I had lunch with a dude who is Italian and working in the states the other day whilst we were both in the Hague. His wife engineered one of the biggest telecom successes in Italy. She was making just under 2k Euros a month! She can (if our country would allow it) take a job, which she has been reciveing multiple offers, for 15-20k a month in the states...
So how do they survive? Easy, parents let their kids live in their house until they die then the kids inherent.. This is only one peel of the onion over here.. It is nutty..
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Jerry Dodrill
climber
Bodega, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - Oct 31, 2007 - 05:03pm PT
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MH-yeah like, what, then 400 trillion dollars (or something like that) flood back into our economy? Hosed...
"The Fed cut today to make sure it doesn't make it quite that far."
... thus proving the instability in the economy.
Call it what you want. About two months after every quarter's economic, housing, and employment summaries, the numbers are revised downward. What is two quarters in the larger picture? Not much when the problem is much bigger. This has been happening consistently. Carefully spun optimism leads to "oh never mind" after everyone has already forgotten about it.
Gee, aren't I chipper today? :-) Working on taxes, so am sorta festering on this, seeing the reality of it first hand.
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Kartch
climber
belgrade, mt
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Oct 31, 2007 - 05:30pm PT
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Just a thought on rising oil prices:
We may or may not hit a recession. I think it will be close but most of us won't really feal the effects.
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TradIsGood
Half fast climber
the Gunks end of the country
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Oct 31, 2007 - 05:44pm PT
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Phony fight - good.
Real fight - bad.
BTW. Along those lines, Fitch (from memory, but I might have the wrong agency) yesterday said they expected to downgrade perhaps as much as 24 BILLION dollars worth of CDOs from AAA to junk levels. (That big a jump almost never happens.) Further they may do it in many cases without even putting it on watch first.
Of course, to some extent the markets reprice these problems (recognize the problem) far sooner than the ratings agencies - so their action really is almost a snore.
What probably is not especially well understood is what will happen, and to whom, when these holdings get marked to market (which is difficult at best today, with very little liquidity).
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LuckyPink
climber
the last bivy
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Oct 31, 2007 - 08:43pm PT
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chit chat all ya like guys, but I can say "recession" just fine cuz I been over to the gas pump, the grocery store, the clothing store, the airline ticket counter, and looked at the cost of living raise on my check stub .. stinks like a recession.
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Jaybro
Social climber
The West
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Oct 31, 2007 - 08:52pm PT
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LP, yup, I'm making the most money ever (not that much, in my case) and it just doesnt go as far as much smaller amounts did, not that long ago. What does that spell? R.E.C.E.S.S.I.O.N. and that IS the half full/optimistic, view ...
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Mtnmun
Trad climber
Top of the Mountain Mun
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Oct 31, 2007 - 09:03pm PT
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Oil from Fungus will save us. I heard it on NPR today. Fungus can grow in dank unused places. Like the space under Lockers shoe shack for instance.
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dirtineye
Trad climber
the south
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Oct 31, 2007 - 11:21pm PT
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DID you really have to post that?
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Dr. Taco
Social climber
New Freedonia, Caledonia
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Mr. Rokjox:
That's a picture of Mr. Crowley, not FT.
Dr. Taco
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Mtnmun
Trad climber
Top of the Mountain Mun
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If we were to harvest the fungus from the fat
and the toe fungus
of the big Americans
and turn it into oil
would we be
Green?
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Gary
climber
Desolation Basin, Calif.
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Jody, I appreciate that visual. Not!
Locker: people in America won't REALLY suffer at all...
My edging will be suffering without my Megas. If you expedite those babies, I'll be eternally grateful.
For at least a couple of days, anyway.
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screelover
Mountain climber
Canuckistan
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Well, I don't know about a recession, but the way the greenback is going has got to have some impact.
Here's a five-year chart of the $US compared to $CAN.
What is shows is about a 40% decline.
So for our 'Mercian cousins, climbing in the Bugs ain't the deal it once was.
Slightly less dramatic versions of the same thing can be seen in relation to the $US and the Euro, Rouble, Brit Pound, etc.
Given that oil is denomnated in $US, this takes some pressure off the appreciating currencies, but it really pounds you folks. Maybe get all those suburbanites out of their SUVs?
Flip side is it makes it harder for anyone, except maybe China that's pegged to the $US to sell stuff to you.
Except oil.
Altogether not good for anyone, I fear.
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Nefarius
Big Wall climber
Fresno, CA
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hahaha... Guess JB was right!
The Fed just pumped $41B into the system today! Yikes!
Read Here
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