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Fluoride
Trad climber
West Los Angeles, CA
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Topic Author's Original Post - May 23, 2012 - 12:37pm PT
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Conrad and co. is going for it. But another 200 people are too.
Will there be another mess like last weekend? Conrad will do fine but will there be another conga line up to the summit??
Will he end up rescuing people who can't survive without O2 while waiting for their chance at the summit?
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Russ Walling
Gym climber
Poofter's Froth, Wyoming
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May 23, 2012 - 12:52pm PT
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Are we doing an "over or under" on deaths? Cool!!! Where is my wallet.
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donini
Trad climber
Ouray, Colorado
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May 23, 2012 - 12:55pm PT
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I'll bet that they don't have any more deaths due to acute alcohol poisoning.
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Fluoride
Trad climber
West Los Angeles, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - May 23, 2012 - 12:56pm PT
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Fatty, you get it. This is going to happen.
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philo
Trad climber
Somewhere halfway over the rainbow
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May 23, 2012 - 01:05pm PT
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I predict death and lots of it.
To say Conrad will be OK is to forget Rob Hall.
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John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
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May 23, 2012 - 01:22pm PT
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Its funny to me that the guy who pulled his whole operation out says the reason is that the conditions were too dangerous. For him this meant the lack of snow and the dangers of falling rock and ice. Yet seems to ignore what appears to be an even bigger danger, which is the crowding.
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Jan
Mountain climber
Okinawa, Japan
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May 23, 2012 - 01:54pm PT
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The latest reports say that "only" 70 are trying it this weekend.
Let's hope that's true.
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bvb
Social climber
flagstaff arizona
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May 23, 2012 - 02:01pm PT
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Amazingly, I actually know a few people who've climbed Everest. And when I say I "know", I'm talking about people I was pretty tight with. People I met when I was living back east, mostly. I know a couple of people who missed topping out by inches -- they swung around 30 minutes from the top. Weird. Ond not on the "Yak" route, either. Crazier, more obscure routes. The whole Everest thing is wierd these days. I swear, if I ever had a chance, I'd go for it. But that's never gonna happen. I'm the classic armchair mountaineer. Even if the best 10 Himalyan climbers on the planet lined up and romised to put me on 02 at 13,000 feet (my personal retching altitude) and wheel me to the summit on a guerney, I'd be like "no way." Reason #1: Pride. If I were going up there, I'd wanna lead every pitch. Reason #2: Fear: Way too dicey, way too scary, way too small a margin of error. Ever read Duecy's description of a true-to-God A5 pitch? Sh#t, I read that, then contrast it to descriptions of a bad day around the summit of Everest, and I swear to God I'd just as soon put a gun to my head. I'm not built for that kind of sh#t. Badly protected 5.11 seems pretty casual by comparison.
So WTF are these people thinking!? Everest used to be this massive, insane undertaking that you thought about only after you'd done the Eiger a couple of dozen times. 29,000 feet? Am I the only one here who understands meteorology? Basic atmosphreic physics? You think writing a 70,000 dollar check is gonna buy you safety up there? Am I the only guy who read "Into Thin Air?" Krakaur was one bad-ass climber, and when he writes about how he almost died up there -- not because of bad rock, or shitty anchors -- but simply because there is no Oxygen to breath -- I go, "whoa".
I dunno. Good luck to 'em, all of ''em. But dayum...70% of the peple up there right now should have a little bit more respect for their lives.
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mouse from merced
Trad climber
merced, california
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May 23, 2012 - 03:33pm PT
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Are predictions of death and mayhem on Everest morally defensible?
Great big no. It's not a moral dilemma. It's accuracy.
Can Fluoride prevent death on Everest?
Ask the dentist, he's the thirty-fifth guy from the end of the Conga line.
He has no clue to that, either.
We may seem ghoulish, but that dude is foolish.
How will he fill the time in the parking lot at the Step?
Watching the tank empty.
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Majid_S
Mountain climber
Bay Area , California
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May 23, 2012 - 03:37pm PT
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Ama Da Blan
The queen of Nepal
I'll take it
lost two good friends on 8000 meter last year
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John Duffield
Mountain climber
New York
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May 23, 2012 - 04:13pm PT
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So many variables here.
Above 20,000 feet, drinking and eating compete with your airway. So drinking or eating leave you gasping. Over time, you'll be skimping on both and your body isn't getting what it needs for that trip down. It's nearly impossible to sleep, the organism knows it needs more air and you wake up quickly, hyperventilating. So some of it depends how long they've been at what altitude.
Why many Everest expeditions will get acclimatized, park loads at the high camps, come down briefly, eat sleep then go back up for the summit push.
Stupid little mistakes are the wild card that pick people off. At - 50 degrees, even having your hand unmittened briefly, leads to frostbite and numbness. So a little gear mistake can leave your hand numb leading to major consequnces later on. Especially when you're in a traffic jam and can't move.
So to make a prediction, you'd really have to know how long they'd been how high. How experienced they are. You'd also need to have wind and temperature, snow depths. As I said in another thread, given that Conga Line, I'm surprised only 4 died.
The icefall is responsible for a major percentage of normal deaths, the seracs can collapse at any moment.
So I'll shoot out an out-the-ass guess. Pleading from anxious relatives will thin the herd. I'm gonna predict two. One in the icefall and one heart attack from a heart that someone demands too much of.
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Mighty Hiker
climber
Vancouver, B.C.
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May 23, 2012 - 04:25pm PT
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It seems safe to predict that about 2% of those reaching 8,000 m or higher will die on the mountain, and that the percentage will increase if there is poor weather, an avalanche, or some other problem.
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brotherbbock
Trad climber
Alta Loma, CA
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May 23, 2012 - 04:32pm PT
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They
are
gonna
DIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111
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Fluoride
Trad climber
West Los Angeles, CA
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Topic Author's Reply - May 23, 2012 - 06:18pm PT
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If 150 tried the weekend 4 died, 200 going for the summit this weekend? You may as well put odds on this being the worst death season on Everest.
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John Moosie
climber
Beautiful California
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May 23, 2012 - 06:22pm PT
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Beth, 300 tried that last weekend. 150 approximately each day. As I understand it.
But I could be totally wrong.. haha. the reports are a bit confusing.
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Mark Hudon
Trad climber
Hood River, OR
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May 23, 2012 - 06:23pm PT
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Given that they have internet service at Base camp I wonder if they are betting how many of us will die on the American Highways this weekend?
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blahblah
Gym climber
Boulder
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May 23, 2012 - 06:26pm PT
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I'll bet that they don't have any more deaths due to acute alcohol poisoning.
That may be a little more funny if the decedent was a depraved Westerner rather than a Sherpa, who for all we know had little or no experience with alcohol until introduced to it by the white man.
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TwistedCrank
climber
Dingleberry Gulch, Ideeho
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May 23, 2012 - 06:45pm PT
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Hundreds summit, awesome photos and video appear on YouTube, guides get rich, Sherpas rake it in on tips. All is A-OK.
Flash-forward a year, the lulled warm-and-fuzzy from the previous season's over-the-top success takes over, and a massacre ensues.
These are somebody's children ferchissakes.
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bergbryce
Mountain climber
South Lake Tahoe, CA
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May 23, 2012 - 07:00pm PT
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Does this Hillary Step have a 5.7 face option like the chimney on Cathedral?
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SteveW
Trad climber
The state of confusion
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May 23, 2012 - 07:19pm PT
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Let's hope for the best but be prepared for the worst. . .
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